NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Our very first NHL survivor pool (where the winner gets a NHL jersey) took off last night. We have 65 participants, with 14 of them eliminated last night so we are left with 51 still standing. No picks required tonight because there are too few games, but the contest will resume tomorrow (Saturday). You can follow each person's picks and read the contest rules at the following link:

NHL SURVIVOR POOL #1

We can expect a lot of action tomorrow in the NHL, as is the case every Saturday night! Again, I am writing this report one day in advance to take advantage of early lines. Yesterday afternoon we were able to grab the Sharks at -130 (decimal 1.77), while the line has now moved down to -154 (decimal 1.649) as of 2:45pm Friday. Similarly, I recommended the Ducks at -167 (decimal 1.60): the line currently sits at -225 (decimal 1.44)! What a steal! Let’s try to repeat once again. I have found 3 picks, including one on the Ottawa-Montreal game that I like a lot! Let’s see the details:

MARCH 25, 2017
	MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Canucks	+218	+220	3,18	3,20		-0,6%
Wild	-245	-220	1,41	1,45		-3,2%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Flyers	+179	+203	2,79	3,03		-7,9%
Blue Jackets	-199	-203	1,50	1,49		0,7%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Flames	+131	+115	2,31	2,15	X	7,4%
Blues	-145	-115	1,69	1,87		-9,6%
Tip: Bet the Flames.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Maple Leafs	-141	-123	1,71	1,81		-5,7%
Sabres	+128	+123	2,28	2,23		2,2%
Tip: No value bet (keep track of the line on the Sabres).
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Senators	+144	+117	2,44	2,17	X	12,4%
Canadiens	-160	-117	1,63	1,85		-12,4%
Tip: Bet the Senators.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blackhawks	-135	-145	1,74	1,69		3,0%
Panthers	+122	+145	2,22	2,45		-9,4%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Hurricanes	-121	-122	1,83	1,82		0,4%
Devils	+110	+122	2,10	2,22		-5,4%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Bruins	Off	-126	Off	1,79
Islanders	Off	+126	Off	2,26
Tip: See guidelines in the text below.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Coyotes	+277	+303	3,77	4,03		-6,5%
Capitals	-315	-303	1,32	1,33		-0,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Sharks	+124	+119	2,24	2,19		2,3%
Predators	-137	-119	1,73	1,84		-6,0%
Tip: No value bet (keep track of the line on the Sharks).
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Avalanche	+231	+283	3,31	3,83		-13,6%
Oilers	-260	-283	1,38	1,35		2,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Rangers	+114	-105	2,14	1,95	X	9,6%
Kings	-126	+105	1,79	2,05		-12,5%
Tip: Bet the Rangers.

 

I must admit I am a lifelong Montreal Canadiens fan. When it comes to sports betting, you must put your own feelings aside. Boy, do I like the Senators at +144 (decimal 2.44) in Montreal! These two teams played a back-to-back set no further than a week ago. Montreal won both games (one in extra time), but things have changed quite a bit since then! The Habs followed that up with a couple of puzzling home losses at the hands of two sub-par teams: Detroit and Carolina. Meanwhile, the Sens seem to have been sparked by the back-to-back losses to their archrivals, as they went on to win in Boston and at home against Pittsburgh. Also note that before those latest two wins against Ottawa, the Canadiens had lost 4 of the past 5 meetings against the Sens. In fact, Ottawa is 3-2 at the Bell Centre over the last 5 matchups. Mark Stone is likely to suit up for the Sens after being out with an injury since March 9^th.

I’m picking another underdog by going with the Flames at +131 (decimal 2.31) in St. Louis. After losing 5 consecutive games the Blues have now won 9 of their last 10 contests, including 4 straight. I don’t want to lessen their recent accomplishments, but it must be pointed out that the latest three wins came against very weak opposition: Vancouver, Colorado and Arizona. Things might feel much more difficult on the ice Saturday night against Calgary. How have the Flames done since their 10-game winning streak was snapped by Boston? They have gone 2-3, but the three losses were against Boston, Washington and Nashville (all above-average teams). Paul Stastny will be out again for St. Louis. The two teams have split the season series at one game apiece, each team winning on the road (4-1 Flames in St. Louis, 6-4 Blues in Calgary).

“Never two without three”. Yep, I’m taking a third underdog, this time the New York Rangers at +114 (decimal 2.14) in Los Angeles. It was announced that Henrik Lundqvist should be back from an injury, as he will be starting two of three road games in California. I expect him to start Saturday in LA, Raanta  should play in Anaheim the next day and Lundqvist should get the nod in San Jose next Tuesday. The Rangers must be happy with King Henrik’s return because Raanta has not done so well during his absence. Here is an interesting fact: 4 of the last 5 meetings between the Rangers and the Kings in Los Angeles have gone in overtime, with the other game ending 4-3 in favor of New York. In other words, those games were all close, which is a good thing when you are betting the underdog.

I recommend betting the Sabres against the Leafs if the line moves to +135 (decimal 2.35) or higher. Buffalo will be hurt by the suspension of their best defenceman Rasmus Ristolainen, but they are likely to welcome back from injuries several players (Kyle Okposo, Cody Franson, Dmitry Kulikov and William Carrier). The Sabres will have an extra two days of rest compared to Toronto, which historically yields an 8.7% home-ice advantage instead of the usual 4.5%-5%.

I also suggest taking the Sharks in Nashville if the line moves to +131 (decimal 2.31) or higher. It would be an understatement to claim that these teams are headed in different directions right now. San Jose has lost 4 consecutive games, in which they only scored a grand total of four goals. Prior to this bad stretch, they beat two fairly weak teams in Buffalo and Dallas. The Preds have been doing very well of late, winning 5 of their past 6 contests. On top of all that, this game will be the second leg of back-to-back games for San Jose. So why in hell am I taking the Sharks? Simply because at +131 the value would be there. We have to keep in mind that San Jose still has the better team.

The Bruins-Islanders line is off the board at the moment. My projections take into account the fact that New York will be playing a second game in as many nights, which leads to the following lines: Bruins -126 versus Islanders +126. Will the Bruins rebound from their current 4-game losing streak? This game is critical for both teams. Boston currently holds the last spot for the playoffs, while the Islanders are just 2 points back with a couple of games in hand. The Bruins definitely have the better team, and I expect them to win this one. Bet Boston if the line is -113 (decimal 1.88) or higher, and bet the Islanders if the line is +140 (decimal 2.40) or higher.

So to recap, I am betting 3 underdogs and I might grab 2 more if lines move in the right direction. Don’t beat up on me if these five teams go 2-3, that would not be out of the ordinary! I’m hoping that among Ottawa, Calgary and the New York Rangers we go 2-1, and going 1-2 would not be a crushing blow considering the favorable odds. We’ll see how it plays out!

That’s it for today; I wish you a great weekend with your loved ones!!

Professor MJ

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