Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NHL Projections: 2017-03-23

NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Tonight is the beginning of our survivor pool, where the winner gets a NHL jersey! You have until 7pm Eastern Time tonight to submit your pick. The full details of the contest can be found here:

https://www.professormj.com/pages/nhl-survivor-pool-begins-thursday-march-23-2017

Let’s get to business! We have 12 games tonight, but only 3 profitable bets: 2 pretty big underdogs and 1 favorite. Let’s cross our fingers that we can win 2 out of 3! Here are the detailed projections:

MARCH 23, 2017

 

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Lightning

+172

+159

2,72

2,59

X

5,0%

Bruins

-191

-159

1,52

1,63

 

-6,5%

Tip: Bet the Lightning.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Blue Jackets

+149

+155

2,49

2,55

 

-2,4%

Capitals

-165

-155

1,61

1,65

 

-2,4%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Devils

+168

+180

2,68

2,80

 

-4,3%

Maple Leafs

-187

-180

1,53

1,56

 

-1,3%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Hurricanes

+149

+177

2,49

2,77

 

-10,1%

Canadiens

-165

-177

1,61

1,56

 

2,6%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Penguins

-137

-128

1,73

1,78

 

-2,9%

Senators

+124

+128

2,24

2,28

 

-1,8%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Coyotes

+171

+186

2,71

2,86

 

-5,2%

Panthers

-190

-186

1,53

1,54

 

-0,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Canucks

+199

+184

2,99

2,84

X

5,3%

Blues

-223

-184

1,45

1,54

 

-6,2%

Tip: Bet the Canucks.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Flames

+122

+129

2,22

2,29

 

-3,1%

Predators

-135

-129

1,74

1,78

 

-1,9%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Flyers

+171

+183

2,71

2,83

 

-4,2%

Wild

-190

-183

1,53

1,55

 

-1,3%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Stars

+201

+233

3,01

3,33

 

-9,6%

Blackhawks

-225

-233

1,44

1,43

 

1,1%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Oilers

-163

-199

1,61

1,50

X

7,4%

Avalanche

+147

+199

2,47

2,99

 

-17,4%

Tip: Bet the Oilers.

 

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

Pinnacle

PROFESSOR MJ

PICK

ROI

Jets

+153

+167

2,53

2,67

 

-5,2%

Kings

-170

-167

1,59

1,60

 

-0,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

The bet with the highest ROI (Return On Investment) goes to Edmonton -163 (decimal 1.61) in Colorado. Backup goalie Jeremy Smith has been confirmed for the Avalanche. He has a 3.43 GAA and an 89.0% save percentage, which is significantly worse than Pickard’s numbers (2.88 GAA and a 90.9% save percentage). Consequently, I deducted 4% to Colorado’s chances of winning tonight. On Edmonton’s side, Cam Talbot started a 13th consecutive game yesterday, but he was pulled midway through the game. No confirmation yet, but they might go with Talbot again tonight. The Oilers may feel some tiredness because of the back-to-back games. They were riding a 4-game winning streak prior to last night’s loss in Anaheim. In the only previous meeting this year, the Oilers won 6-3 in Colorado. However, the Avalanche beat the Oilers on all 3 matchups a season ago. Colorado has lost its last 3 contests overall by a combined 15-6 score.

I’m taking a gamble on the Canucks +199 (decimal 2.99) in St. Louis. Some injuries of note: Markus Granlund will undergo wrist surgery for Vancouver, while the Blues’ Paul Stastny will miss at least a week with a lower-body injury. Both games this year between these two clubs were close: the Canucks won 2-1 in overtime at home, while the Blues prevailed 4-3 in St. Louis. It’s weird how the Blues reacted following the trade of their star defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk: they lost their first two games without him, but have now won 8 of their last 9 games! They are now fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Tonight’s match may be a trap game for them as they could be looking ahead of their following game against the red-hot Calgary Flames. The Canucks just snapped a six-game skid by upsetting the Blackhawks in Chicago 4-3 in overtime!

I’m going with another pretty big underdog with Tampa Bay +172 (decimal 2.72) in Boston. The Bruins looked pretty invincible since replacing Claude Julien by Bruce Cassidy, but they are now showing signs of weaknesses after losing their last 3 games by a combined 14-8 score. The Lightning have not done any better in their past 3 games, losing all of them by a combined 15-6 score, including a 5-3 loss to the lowly Coyotes two days ago. That was a crushing blow to their playoff hopes. With 10 games left on their schedule, they MUST beat the Bruins, whom they are trailing by 5 points for the last playoff spot. The Bruins have beaten the Lightning on 4 straight occasions (all 3 this season). Prior to this stretch, it was the Lightning who was dominating Boston, winning 4 of 5 games. Peter Budaj will be facing Tuukka Rask. I don’t have any numbers to back this theory, but I feel like when two struggling teams face each other, it leads to close tight games, which is good for the underdog.

Thank you very much for reading!

Professor MJ