NFL Picks Week #18 (2022 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Written Tuesday January 3rd, 2022 at 3 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)


Yes sir! All 3 NFL picks I shared with you last week were winners! I even added a fourth play with my members on Patreon, under 20.5 points during the first half of the Dolphins versus Patriots meeting, which also won.

So, over the course of the entire season, my NFL picks on sides and totals have produced a solid 47-39-1 record.

I started sharing my NFL picks online in 2017 and all six of those seasons have yielded a positive record. We are crushing it!

And the best has yet to come: don’t forget my famous and SUPER LUCRATIVE Super Bowl proposition bets. Over the past three Super Bowls, we have racked up an astonishing 54-23 record, a 70% success rate.

Every year, I spend countless hours analyzing the huge number of prop bets, and I always find lots of great bargains. This is like Christmas to me with so many great value wagers offered to us.

Each year I receive many emails well in advance of the big game asking WHEN I will put my special Super Bowl prop bet package for sale. This time, I am offering this opportunity so that you can sign up RIGHT NOW to this exclusive mailing list (click here!).

The cost is the same as it was in previous years: $100 US. We sold close to 83 packages last year, so I hope to break that record this year, given the amazing performance and popularity it has gained.

That being said, so far I have detected 2 solid bets for Week 18 in the NFL and I am happy to share them with you. I will also reveal four unofficial picks, called “leans”, that are borderline acceptable, in my humble opinion.

Let’s rock and roll for the last week of the 2022 NFL regular season!



This betting pick was shared to my members on Patreon around noon on Monday. The total was 50.5, and it has now moved up to 52.5. In other words, we got a bargain!

The last five meetings between these two clubs have ended with the over being the winning bet. Moreover, if you take a look at K.C.’s last 12 road games, the over holds a 10-2 record.

Let’s now focus our attention on the Raiders’ last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. In those matchups, the over posted a 9-2-1 record, which is pretty impressive!

The Chiefs still have a shot at the number one seed in the AFC, so they won’t hesitate to rack up points on the board. They should not have that much trouble doing it since the Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the league.

The main concern is whether the Raiders can also contribute offensively. Jarrett Stidham racked up 365 yards through the air against the stout 49ers defense, so I guess he can score points against a much more vulnerable Chiefs defense.

For all of these reasons, I am backing the over to hit in this AFC West matchup.



I shared this bet on Monday at 7:42 pm Eastern Time with my members on Patreon. At that time, we got the Falcons laying three points at -105 odds, but since then the line moved to 3.5 or 4 points, depending on the sportsbook you are looking at. It looks like we are going to beat the closing line once again, which is always a great sign when you place a bet.

The Bucs have no incentive to win whatsoever since they are locked into the #4 seed in the NFC. Head coach Todd Bowles declared he expects to play its starters, but I doubt it will last past halftime. Tom Brady and company might play in the first half, but why risk an injury to a key player ahead of the postseason?

The Falcons are eliminated, but unlike Tampa they are likely to play their starters for the entire game. The home crowd will also keep them motivated, as they will certainly want to beat a divisional foe. Atlanta will be looking to avenge a Week 5 loss that ended with a 21-15 score in favor of the Buccaneers.

The Bucs present a 1-5-1 record ATS when facing a team with a losing record, so it bodes well for this bet.



As usual, here are some unofficial picks that must be taken with a grain of salt since I don’t like them enough to put money at risk:

  • Titans +6.5 at Jaguars (I love many things about this bet, but only one factor prevents me from pulling the trigger: Josh Dobbs being under center for the Titans. Otherwise, there are many arguments backing Tennessee. First, they have three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, which is key. The last 15 times the Titans were underdogs by five points or more, they are 11-4 ATS. They will feed Derrick Henry a lot in order to milk the clock, which is good news when you are betting an underdog. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS over their past five trips to Jacksonville, and they are 4-0-1 following a double-digit home loss.);
  • Steelers -2.5 vs Browns (Pittsburgh needs three things to make the playoffs: they must beat the Browns, the Bills must prevail against the Patriots and the Jets need to get the victory in Miami. Given the Dolphins might start Skylar Thompson at QB, the Steelers have a real shot at making the playoffs. Their motivation level will be much higher than Cleveland’s, who is out of playoff contention. They’ll want to play spoilers for sure, but I don’t think they will succeed. Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last five games at Heinz Field. The Steelers are 7-2 when T.J. Watt plays; he was NOT on the field in Week 3 when Cleveland beat the Steelers 29-17. Pittsburgh has beaten the spread the last five times they faced a team with a losing record.);
  • Colts -2.5 vs Texans (Houston can clinch the #1 draft pick with a loss, while Jeff Saturday will be motivated to get a win to close out the regular season for Indy. The Colts are 7-2 ATS during their last nine meetings with the Texans. It’s hard to bet hard-earned money on a team led by Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, though, so that’s why this is just a lean).
  • Packers -4.5 vs Lions (Detroit is likely to be eliminated before this game even starts. All that needs to happen is the Seahawks to beat the Rams. Given they are 6.5-point favorites, that’s a very likely outcome. Meanwhile, the Packers need a win to make the playoffs; as simple as that. They have played solid football over the course of the past month. When the temperature is below 35 degrees Fahrenheit, Aaron Rodgers has a jaw-dropping 28-4 record. Meanwhile, under those conditions, Jared Goff has thrown 4 TD passes versus 5 interceptions, and that included 3 touchdowns in garbage time. Green Bay will be at home for the 4th week over the past five, and they will be looking for payback after suffering a 15-9 defeat against the Lions in Week 9.).

One more chance to sign up for my moneymaking Super Bowl prop bets for this year: simply click here to join the numerous other smart sports bettors!!!

Happy New Year, folks!!!


Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)