NFL Picks Divisional Round (Saturday Games) (2022 regular season)
NFL PICKS (DIVISIONAL ROUND - SATURDAY GAMES)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Wednesday January 18th, 2023 at 9 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
This is part 2 of my NFL picks for the Divisional Round! In the first article, I presented my best bet for each of the two games to be played on Sunday, while in the post that you are currently reading I will unveil my favorite betting play for the Saturday games.
In case you don’t know me yet, my name is Professor MJ and I was a university statistics teacher in Canada for 15 years before retiring at an early age last September after reaching financial independence. Welcome aboard the Professor MJ community, which is filled with smart sports gamblers just like you! Are you ready for my NFL picks? Let’s go!!!
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #1: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Jaguars pulled off a stunner last week by overcoming a 27-point deficit against the L.A. Chargers. As much as possible, I try to avoid betting teams coming off a very emotional game because it is hard to replicate the same level of intensity in the following match.
More specifically, my betting tip regarding this AFC matchup is the Chiefs laying 2.5 points for the first quarter.
I expect K.C. to get off to a fast start in front of their fired up crowd, while Trevor Lawrence will try to avoid repeating his catastrophic first half against the Chargers in which he threw four interceptions. Over several years, NFL teams coming off a game in which they threw 3+ picks and who were now established underdogs by 5.5 points or more have posted a 27-36 record against the spread (ATS). That shows how teams tend to be less confident in such conditions.
Moreover, Andy Reid’s teams have produced a mind-blowing 28-5 record after a bye week, including an impressive 9-1 record with Patrick Mahomes at the quarterback position.
These two teams met in Week 10 with Kansas City prevailing fairly easily by a 27-17 score. In that game, the Chiefs turned the ball over three times compared to zero for the Jags, and they still won the game by a good margin. They dominated total yardage 486 to 315.
Jacksonville finished the regular season by facing Zach Wilson, Davis Mills and Joshua Dobbs. But before this 3-game stretch they faced Dallas, a game in which they surrendered 34 points, and last week they played against another solid QB, Justin Herbert, who torched them for 27 points in the first half alone, before Brandon Staley’s play calling began to be more questionable with the big lead. Now facing Patrick Mahomes, I believe the Jags are in big trouble. It is especially true given the fact that Jacksonville’s defense has struggled a lot defending tight ends this season. Travis Kelce is licking his chops right now.
I decided to go with the first quarter spread as a matter of preference. I would not be surprised if the Chiefs took a pretty big lead before Jacksonville comes back to make it tighter, perhaps scoring a late garbage TD. I prefer to go with the first quarter line where I am sure that the Chiefs will put their maximum effort.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 points for the first quarter against the Jaguars.
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #2: NEW YORK GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
In this NFC East matchup, I am backing the New York Football Giants +7.5 points in Philadelphia.
Yes, I am taking the Giants despite the huge edge going to Philly in terms of rest. As a matter of fact, New York will be on the road for the 5th time in six weeks, while the Eagles will be at home for the fourth week in a row, including coming off a bye week. That worries me, but I’m still putting my money on the Giants.
Jalen Hurts has played just one game in a month. And he wasn’t very impressive in that game by completing 20 of 35 passes with no touchdown and one pick against those same Giants who were resting LOTS of starters since the game was meaningless to them, while the Eagles were playing for the #1 seed.
That game turned out to be the third straight disappointing game by Philly. In Week 17, they were upset 20-to-10 at home against the Saints. And in Week 16 they were defeated 40-to-34 in Dallas. I am aware that they were playing with Gardner Minshew under center, but Minshew wasn’t playing on defense, and they still squandered 40 points to the Cowboys, which cannot be viewed as a positive outcome for sure.
Even the Week 15 game was “okay”, but not great. In that game, the Eagles prevailed 25-20 at the Bears, who finished dead last in the league with a 3-14 record. Jalen Hurts failed to throw a TD pass in Chicago, while getting picked off on two occasions.
Over their past six visits in the city of Brotherly Love, the Giants present a nice 5-1 record against the spread. And during their past 11 road playoff games, they are 10-1 ATS.
Pick: Give me the Giants +7.5 points at the Eagles this weekend. It won’t be a cakewalk for Philadelphia against a division rival.
SUPER BOWL PROP BET PACKAGE
I have started putting on sale my most valuable product of the year: my famous and moneymaking Super Bowl proposition bet package! And this time, I am offering you a very nice bonus if you buy early; bear with me for the details.
Every year, during the 10 days leading up to the Big Game, I spend between 50 and 100 hours analyzing the vast number of prop bets offered by sportsbooks. And every year, it turns out to be a GREAT investment of my time:
- For Super Bowl 56 between the Rams and the Bengals, I found 32 good bets, who produced a 21-11 record.
- In Super Bowl 55 featuring the Bucs and the Chiefs, I unveiled 34 bargains, which yielded an incredible 24-10 record.
- In Super Bowl 54 in which Kansas City defeated the 49ers, I traveled to Vegas in order to place bigger bets. I made a series of videos on YouTube presenting my best findings, and despite most of my bets being at positive odds on underdogs, we racked up 9 wins and 2 losses.
So, over those 3 Super Bowls where I started sharing my bets with the public, we have accumulated a 54-23 record, which amounts to a 70% success rate with average odds around +100 in American format.
As usual, the cost of this super valuable product is $100 US. We sold around 80 packages last year, and I am aiming to break the 100 mark this year.
In order to do so, I have decided to offer a nice bonus for those of you who buy it early: I will send you directly in your mailbox all of my NFL prop bets during the playoffs.
That means that if you sign up right now, you will get my prop bets for this weekend’s 4 games, along with the 2 conference championship matches, and of course for the Super Bowl.
I’m Professor MJ, holder of a PhD in statistics, which has been super helpful to crush online bookies since 1999, thank you so much for reading this article, amigo!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)