NFL Pick Super Bowl LVII (February 12, 2023)
NFL PICK (SUPER BOWL LVII)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Tuesday January 31st, 2023 at 9 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
In this article, I’ll give you my top Super Bowl pick!
But for those of you who have been following my sports betting YouTube channel for several years, you know I’m much more excited about the famous and super lucrative proposition bets. They have produced a mind-boggling 54-23 record over the past three Super Bowls. More details about that towards the end of this post.
I’m Professor MJ, university statistics teacher for the past 15 years. Are you ready for some football???
SUPER BOWL LVII: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
My top pick for Super Bowl LVII does not concern the game spread, nor the total. Instead, I am taking the Philadelphia Eagles team total to go over 24.5 points.
If you combine Philadephia’s regular season and playoff games, but removing the two matches where Gardner Minshew was under center, the Eagles have put 25 points on the board or more on 11 occasions, while failing to attain this number just 6 times. In other words, by betting the Eagles’ team total to go over 24.5 points in each of their games with Jalen Hurts as their starting QB, you would have obtained an 11-6 record.
Obviously, this nice record was generated by facing all kinds of defenses, from good to bad. In this case, they will be squaring off against the Chiefs defense that finished 16th in terms of points allowed and 15th in terms of the very reliable EPA statistic. In short, the Eagles’ offense will be playing an average defensive unit, so to me the 11-6 record is a good indicator that the “over” is a smart wager to make.
Kansas City’s best cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed, suffered a concussion during the AFC Championship game against the Bengals. Will he be able to suit up for the Big Game? Only time will tell. At the time I wrote this article, it seemed more probable that he will be cleared in time to play the game, but there is still a chance he could miss it, in which case the defense would be much more vulnerable.
I really like how Philly’s offense is well-balanced. They can run effectively with Miles Sanders, speedster Boston Scott and, of course, Jalen Hurts who is always a threat on the ground. They can also hurt you through the air with one of the best WR duo in the league made of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, not to mention the very reliable Dallas Goedert at tight end.
During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed a QB rating of 82.5 to opposing quarterbacks when they targeted wide receivers, which ranked 27th in the league. That sounds like big trouble to me.
To top it all off, the Eagles have a very strong offensive line. They can open up holes on the ground, and they give Hurts enough time to scan the field and complete passes.
One thing I like about this bet is we know the Eagles won’t slow down and start playing more conservatively at any point during the game. The coaching staff knows they are facing Patrick Mahomes who has the ability to make big comebacks if necessary, so no lead will be big enough to make it comfortable. Philly won’t take their foot off the pedal.
Moreover, Nick Sirianni has an aggressive approach, and he is not shy to attempt fourth down conversions. The Eagles were among the league leaders in that category, which is good if you want them to score more touchdowns instead of field goals.
It is also important to note that the Eagles are very healthy on the offensive side of the ball. Left guard Landon Dickerson got hurt against the 49ers, but he will be ready to roll once the game starts. The MRI on his elbow showed he only suffered a hyperextension.
The Eagles’ defense generated the fifth-most takeaways during the regular season. Meanwhile, K.C.’s offense finished in the middle-of-the-pack in terms of giveaways. Given how the Eagles produced the highest number of sacks, we can certainly hope for some turnovers in our favor, which would give the Eagles a shorter field to work with. That would be a huge boost to our bet. Patrick Mahomes has thrown four interceptions in two Super Bowl appearances, so that is something to consider as well.
The Eagles scored 31 points against perhaps the best defense in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers, in the NFC Championship game. So why could they not score more than 24 against an average defense?
So, for all of these reasons, I am hammering Philadelphia’s team total to go over 24.5 points during Super Bowl LVII against the Kansas City Chiefs.
In case you are wondering, if I was forced to beat the spread I would back the Eagles. That’s not surprising given everything I’ve said in this video, but I prefer Philly’s team total to protect against an Eagles loss during a shootout. For example, if the Chiefs win 31-28, my bet would still win, whereas a spread bet would lose.
PROP BETS (SUPER PROFITABLE!!!)
To me, the Super Bowl is like Christmas. It turns out to be a very moneymaking day year in and year out due to the absurd number of prop bets offered by sportsbooks.
Their lines cannot be accurate on each of those hundreds of potential wagers. Every year, I spend between 50 and 100 hours analyzing those prop bets, and on average I find between 30 and 35 bargains that I hammer hard. As mentioned in the introduction, I have provided to my subscribers 54 winning bets versus 23 losing ones during the past three Super Bowls, a 70% winning rate.
If you are interested to sign up for this EXCLUSIVE mailing list to receive all the good value wagers I find on the Super Bowl, simply follow this link.
You can see below a few examples of picks I shared last year, and what the format looks like:
Not only do I provide the pick itself, but I also tell you which sportsbooks offer the best odds on this market, along with my estimated return on investment, and the minimum odds you should be willing to take.
If there is just one product to buy from me during the course of a year, this is it. I devote a lot of time into this, there are a lot of calculations and line tracking behind each pick, but I have always found it to be a great investment of my time. Let me do the hard work for you by signing up here!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)