Free MLB Picks Tuesday August 8, 2023
Both MLB picks from yesterday were winners, as both the Blue Jays and the Red Sox picked up the W. Let’s keep rolling!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Under 10 Royals-Red Sox (@ -110 odds)
Brady Singer’s ERA is quite ugly at 5.10, but his 1.39 WHIP statistic is not as bad, given the league average is around 1.30. Moreover, he has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past three outings. He posted a good 3.23 ERA last year, so he has proven he can be a reliable starter in the Big Leagues. I believe he can have a solid second half to the current season.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford. Over the whole season, he owns an impressive 1.09 WHIP stat, which shows there has not been much traffic on the bases while he was on the mound. Since moving into Boston’s rotation, he has held opponents to three runs or less in 7 of 10 outings. He can certainly hold down the third-worst offense to a few runs on the board today.
During Kansas City’s last 49 games on the road, the under has presented a 28-21 record. On the other hand, if you focus on Boston’s last 26 games at Fenway Park, the under is 18-8.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Tampa Bay Rays (@ -170 odds, vs St. Louis Cardinals)
Just like Boston’s pick yesterday, I agree that betting lower odds isn’t enticing, but recall what I said in yesterday’s video: a good value wager is a good value wager. I truly believe this is a +EV bet. Why? Let me explain.
Tampa fits under “The Big Upset #2” betting system that has performed incredibly well over recent years. In 2023, we’ve had 10 qualifying plays whose average odds were -110 and we have racked up a 7-3 record.
Last year, we obtained a 15-7 record due to this betting strategy, which translated into a +19.1% ROI if you take into account each bet’s odds. And what about the year before? An 11-9 record, coupled with a +7.2% ROI. You cannot ask for better consistency from year-to-year.
“Ok MJ, thanks for sharing those numbers, but how does this betting angle actually work?”, are you wondering? I’m glad you asked!
Suppose a team was the victim of a “big upset” in its last game, where a “big upset” means the underdog won the game despite odds that were bigger than +150. If the victim of the big upset is an underdog today and is now facing a different opponent, you need to FADE them.
Let me show you how it applies to today’s contest.
In their last game, which took place on Sunday, the Cardinals lost 1-0 to the lowly Rockies. The latter had a moneyline which was between +160 and +180 depending on the book you are looking at, so that clearly fits the description of a big upset, right?
Now, the Cards are indeed underdogs today and they are now battling another squad. By following the rules of “The Big Upset #2” system, we’ve got to bet AGAINST the Cards, which explains the Rays pick.
After going through a tough stretch in which they picked up just three wins in 12 games, the Rays are back to their old form. In fact, they own a 5-2 record lately and they are ready to chase the Orioles atop the AL East division.
Meanwhile, the Cards are heading in the opposite direction. After winning six straight games from July 15 to July 20, they are 5-11 since then.
Tampa is rock solid at home, via a 37-19 record, so it will be difficult for the reeling Cardinals to pull off the upset here. The task will be harder given the Rays will be sending Zach Eflin to the mound, who has been excellent and leads the league with 12 wins.
On the other side, Miles Mikolas gets the nod for St. Louis. He’s had some ups and downs and is currently having an “okay” season, but nothing more. He has pitched 14 innings against Tampa in his career, giving up four homeruns and posting an ugly 7.71 ERA in the process. I like the sound of that!
I’ll see you again tomorrow at 11 am Eastern Time for my weekly live stream on YouTube where I’m going to reveal my top baseball picks for that day!
This is Professor MJ, thanks for your time amigo!