Free MLB Picks Monday August 7, 2023
This article will present a couple of MLB betting picks for today, Monday August 7, by the holder of a PhD in statistics. Are you ready for this? Let’s go!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Toronto Blue Jays (@ -125 odds, at Cleveland Guardians)
Last Tuesday, I went AGAINST the advice of one of my worst performing betting systems by taking the Pirates against the Tigers. It paid off with a 4-1 victory, and I’m going to do it again today.
This time, I will be fading “The Blowout #2” betting strategy. When I ran my statistical analysis four years ago, it had generated a good profit of a seven-year period. However, I have been tracking its performance in each of the past four seasons and it has yielded some losses every single year. So far this year it has produced a 25-36 record at average odds of +108, which translated into a -21.1% ROI. That’s awful!
The rules of “The Blowout #2” betting angle go like this: bet AGAINST any team that won its previous game by a margin of at least seven runs if they are now facing a different opponent. Which team qualifies under this system?
Yesterday, the Blue Jays dismantled the Red Sox by a 13-to-1 score. That fits the definition of a “blowout” and since they are squaring off against another squad, we should be betting their opponents, the Guardians.
However, after analyzing this game further, and given the poor performance of this betting strategy, pick number one for Monday August 7 goes to the Toronto Blue Jays!
At the time I made this post, the odds varied between -125 and -135 in American format, which is the same as a range between 1.74 and 1.80 in decimal odds.
Hyun Jin Ryu will make his second start since having Tommy John surgery in June 2022. His first appearance wasn’t as good as he had hoped after allowing four runs in five innings against a tough Orioles lineup. That is certainly a source of concern here, but this time he will be facing the team that has scored the fifth-fewest runs in the Big Leagues this season.
The Jays will be facing rookie Gavin Williams. His 3.38 ERA is quite good, but his command issues are causing some headaches to his manager. During his last four starts, he has given up 4, 2, 4 and 4 walks, while lasting a maximum of five innings in each of those appearances. That’s unacceptable in the Majors. I know he’s been able to avoid big damage most of the time, but I’m afraid Toronto will tag him for several runs today. Williams’ ERA stands at 4.21 at home versus just 2.12 on the road.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Boston Red Sox (@ -190 odds, vs Kansas City Royals)
MLB pick #2 for August 7 is backed by “The Blowout #3” betting system. One aspect of this betting strategy that I appreciate is the fact that it is being very selective with its betting recommendations. As a matter of fact, it suggests betting an average of just 20 teams during a full season.
So far this year, “The Blowout #3” system has pointed in the direction of just 10 teams, and despite getting average odds of +114, which means we mostly took underdogs, we have obtained a great 7-3 record.
Would you like to know how it performed last year? Once again, we had positive average odds, this time +112, coupled with a 9-7 record so we had a +10% ROI.
All right, now how does it work, are you asking? I’m glad to share its secrets with you! Whenever a team gets destroyed by a margin of at least 11 runs and they are facing another opponent, you must bet the team that just got hammered.
Which teams fits these criteria? Yes, you guessed it, the Boston Red Sox! They lost by a 12-point margin yesterday against Toronto, so since they are facing another club we’ve got to put our hard-earned money on them today. I know the odds are low, which makes it less exciting, but a good value wager is a good value wager so I’m taking it.
The Royals will start Cole Ragans. He’s been surprisingly good since joining the starting rotation after Daniel Lynch’s injury. He shutout the Mets after allowing just one run against the Rays. But I’m afraid it’s not going to last and he could hit a wall in Boston. Did you know that his ERA this year at home has been 3.13 versus 6.57 on the road? I like that!
Boston will counter with a more reliable starter: Brayan Bello. His 3.79 ERA and 1.24 WHIP stat show he is certainly a better-than-average hurler. Granted, he has showed some signs of weaknesses lately, but he was given an additional day of rest for this start, and I believe it will be beneficial for him. Now facing the third-worst offense in the Big Leagues, I think he can take advantage of those favorable conditions.
I’m Professor MJ, the nerdy statistician from Quebec City in Canada wishing you an awesome Monday my friend!