Professor MJ's picks on NBA player props: 2017-03-14



University Professor. PhD in stat. Proud dad of 2 boys.



March 14th, 2017


We got off to a great start last night by going 12-4-2 on NBA player props. To be honest with you, I’m not that surprised. We are not going to win 75% of our bets in the long run, but it is highly likely to range between 55% and 60%. As I said yesterday, I’ve had great success with this type of betting at Bodog/Bovada in the past, but when they lowered my limit to a ridiculously small number, I simply withdrew my money. And now that they are not accepting action from Quebec residents, things are looking even worse for me, which is why I forgot about it. But then I realized I could let my followers benefit from it since I’m extremely confident this system will work again.

That being said, I have decided to make it a paid service. I have been working hard on this sports betting website for a few months, while not earning a single penny from it. All of my picks and analyzes have been completely free. You don’t see any Google ads on my website. No sponsor for my daily reports either. I have earned absolutely nothing from this adventure. I’m not saying this as a complaint: I LOVE doing it. It’s not a chore to me. But I’m sure people will understand that it would be nice if I could earn a little money off of this website. The daily NBA and NHL picks are still going to be 100% free. The only thing that will change is I will offer my NBA player props picks for a fee. If you are not interested, that is fine. If you are interested, that is fine too. I know this stuff is pretty valuable.

If less than 50% of the picks are correct, you get your money back. It’s as simple as that, and it shows how confident I am about this system. In other words, if I provide 20 picks and our record at the end of the night is 9-11 (or 9-10-1 for example) you get your money back.

I will limit the number of packages on sale each day. Why? Suppose I sell 50 packages. The person buying last is likely to find out that the lines on my selected picks have all moved in the wrong direction, making all bets with negative expected value. I will be experimenting, but for now I will limit the packages to 20 per day. We’ll see how things go.

Speaking of line movement, I want to emphasize the fact that I am not responsible for such line moves and cannot reimburse someone buying my picks who later found out there aren’t any good bets anymore. I’ll try to adjust the number of packages in stock so that this kind of thing doesn’t happen very often because my goal isn’t to rip off anybody here. But you have to understand that this kind of thing could happen. It would be much too complicated and time-consuming for me to track the odds in real-time and as soon as I see that there aren’t any more good bets I would stop selling any packages. I simply cannot do that.

People buying the packages will get the picks and “print screens” of the Bodog page of each recommended bet, in order to show that the lines were indeed the ones I claim they were.

I will keep posting such picks on Facebook and via email, but AFTER the games have started (hopefully not too long after they have started so that it doesn’t look like I’m making picks after following the games for several minutes and seeing how it plays out). The goal will be to show the system’s performance, and those buying the picks will be able to validate the results. Again, the goal isn’t to rip anybody off, I did not work that hard only to ruin my reputation later on. I’ve always been as transparent and honest about everything.

Reminder: if you are from the US, you must have an account with Bovada:


If you are from Canada (except Qubec), you must have an account with Bodog:


If you are from outside North America, check both to see if they accept your action.

Today I have 12 recommended picks for only 20$ USD: