Professor MJ's picks on NBA player props: 2017-03-13

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University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



March 13th, 2017


Today I’m introducing something new: how to beat NBA player propositions (“props”) in Bovada/Bodog. I’m actually even more confident in this type of betting than the daily NHL and NBA game projections I have been posting for a while. This is very likely to produce some winnings.

  • If you are from the US, you will have to go with Bovada (see the link in my “Best Bookies” page).
  • If you are from Canada (except for Quebec), you will have to go with Bodog. Unfortunately, if you are from Quebec, neither of these books will accept you (perhaps if you know someone who lives outside of the province you could ask him/her to open an account for you).
  • If you are from outside North America, please check both to see if they accept customers from your specific country.

Notice: it doesn’t require that much action on either side of a player proposition for lines to change. Since many people read this report, you will have to be among the first people to bet in order to get the best lines as possible. And please respect my guidelines regarding lines you should accept (if I say “... at -115”, don’t bet if the line is -120 unless mentioned otherwise).

I will keep track of my record on such bets. Here are today’s value bets on NBA player props:

  • Under 18.5 points Dwayne Wade at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 10 points Bobby Portis at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 6.5 rebounds Jimmy Butler -105 (decimal 1.95) (you could even go as low as -115 or 1.87)
  • Over 9 rebounds+assists Kemba Walker at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 12.5 points Wesley Matthews at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 28.5 points DeMar DeRozan at -105 (decimal 1.95) (you could even go as low as -115 or 1.87)
  • Over 15.5 points Kris Middleton at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 13.5 points Greg Monroe at -130 (decimal 1.77)
  • Under 20 points+rebounds Greg Monroe at -125 (decimal 1.80)
  • Over 22.5 points Giannis Antetokounmpo at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Over 7 rebounds Zach Randolph at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Over 6 rebounds Marc Gasol at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 39.5 points+rebs+assists John Wall at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 10.5 rebounds Marcin Gortat at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 14 points Markieff Morris at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 12 points DeAndre Jordan at -115 (decimal 1.87) (you could go as low as -130 or 1.77)
  • Under 30.5 points+rebs Blake Griffin at -115 (decimal 1.87)
  • Under 8 rebs+assists George Hill at -115 (decimal 1.87) (you could go as low as -130 or 1.77)

Good luck!

Professor MJ