Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NHL Projections: 2017-02-28
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NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
February 28, 2017
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Coyotes |
+281 |
+280 |
3,81 |
3,80 |
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Bruins |
-320 |
-280 |
1,31 |
1,36 |
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Boston has beaten the Coyotes 9 straight times. Arizona recently dealt forwards Martin Hanzal and Ryan White, which won’t help for the rest of the season. The Coyotes have been improving of late, as showed by their 6 wins over their last 11 contests.
Final pick: No value bet.
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PROFESSOR MJ |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
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Predators |
-135 |
-120 |
1,74 |
1,83 |
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Sabres |
+122 |
+120 |
2,22 |
2,20 |
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Sabres goalie Linus Ullmark will make his first NHL start of the season. He played 20 NHL games last year and posted reasonable numbers with a 2.61 GAA and a .913 save percentage. Both teams are playing a 3rd game in 4 nights, but Nashville may be the most tired of the two teams, as tonight’s game will mark their 7th game in 11 days. Buffalo is coming off two really bad outings, having lost to the two worst teams in the NHL, Colorado and Arizona. My gut feeling would go with Buffalo as I feel they will be focused after losing such “easy” games (plus the fatigue factor for Nashville), but the numbers tell me not to bet. I leave it up to you.
Final pick: No value bet.
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PROFESSOR MJ |
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Capitals |
-129 |
-136 |
1,78 |
1,74 |
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Rangers |
+117 |
+136 |
2,17 |
2,36 |
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This is a typical example of why I have the intention of making my projections the day before the games are actually played (or early in the morning the same day). Why? Because I feel like I missed a great value bet. The line opened with the Rangers as favorites at -110, and they are now underdogs at +117. What a swing. With my statistical models yielding projected lines as Capitals -136 and Rangers +136, I would have been great to grab Washington at +100. Too late now.
The Caps will be playing on 2 days rest, while the Rangers will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights (6th game in 10 nights). Also, it looks like Kevin Shattenkirk will be able to play his first game as a Capital. Matt Niskanen should be back from an injury, while Oshie, Orpik and Burakovsky are out.
The line doesn’t call for a bet anymore, but if I were pointed a gun to my head to pick a team, it would definitely be Washington.
Final pick: No value bet.
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PROFESSOR MJ |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
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Blue Jackets |
-113 |
-143 |
1,88 |
1,70 |
X |
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Canadiens |
+102 |
+143 |
2,02 |
2,43 |
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Another case where I wish I had made my projections earlier, as Columbus opened at +100. This time though, they still represent a profitable bet at -113.
Both teams are playing a third game in 4 nights, but Montreal is the only one playing the second of back-to-back games. Columbus has beaten Montreal in their last 4 meetings, including two this season by a combined 12-2 score. However, the Jackets will face Carey Price for the first time this year.
Columbus was struggling a bit before their bye week, winning 5 of 12 games. But since returning from this break, they beat a surging Islanders team 7-0, and followed that up with a 5-2 win against the Rangers in NY!
Final pick: Bet the Blue Jackets at -113 (decimal odds = 1.88) for a ROI of 10.9%.
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Hurricanes |
+133 |
+131 |
2,33 |
2,31 |
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Panthers |
-147 |
-131 |
1,68 |
1,76 |
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Final pick: No value bet.
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PROFESSOR MJ |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Oilers |
+105 |
-109 |
2,05 |
1,92 |
X |
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Blues |
-116 |
+109 |
1,86 |
2,09 |
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Both teams are on a losing streak. On one hand, Edmonton has lost its last 2 contests. Meanwhile, after turning to new head coach Mike Yeo the Blues went 7-1, only to lose their next 3. The Blues just traded their star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk who was second for points in St. Louis. Considering the Blues have only scored 5 goals during their 3-game losing streak, it raises questions about where the scoring will come from. Also note that Edmonton has won both matchups between these two teams this year.
Final pick: Bet the Oilers at +105 (decimal odds = 2.05) for a ROI of 6.9%.
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Wild |
+107 |
+106 |
2,07 |
2,06 |
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Jets |
-118 |
-106 |
1,85 |
1,94 |
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This is a tough game to predict accurately for several reasons. First of all, Pominville and Parise are out with the mumps, but the Wild acquired Martin Hanzal and Ryan White (the latter got 2 points last night in LA). I have deducted 5% to Minnesota’s win probability for that. Second, Kuemper will be in net and he has posted numbers that have been significantly worse than starter Devan Dubnyk. For those of you who read my report about the backup goalie effect, remember that I showed you should substract 5.7% on average. In this case, I went with 8% because of the big gap between the two goalies. Finally, the Jets figure to be more rested, but is that a good thing considering that teams coming off their bye week have been awful so far this season? Again, it’s hard to estimate the impact of this factor. I ended up with projected lines that are close to actual bookie lines, so I definitely recommend staying away from this game.
Final pick: No value bet.
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Penguins |
-152 |
-165 |
1,66 |
1,61 |
X |
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Stars |
+137 |
+165 |
2,37 |
2,65 |
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I’m picking Pittsburgh, but only if the line moves to -145 (decimal odds = 1.69) or better. Kris Letang and Olli Maatta are out for the Penguins, but Dallas is turning to its backup goalie Antti Niemi. Pittsburgh will definitely have fresh legs (without being rusty either) after two days’ rest, and also considering they had a 3-day break before their previous game.
Final pick: Bet the Penguins only if the line is -145 (decimal odds = 1.69) or higher.
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PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Kings |
+103 |
+140 |
2,03 |
2,40 |
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Flames |
-114 |
-140 |
1,88 |
1,71 |
X |
Ok, now I’m definitely upset about not making projections earlier. Calgary’s opening line was -101. Even at -114, I still consider it as profitable, but any gambler knows how critical getting the best odds is.
Ben Bishop is projected to make his first start as a King. Los Angeles has won the only meeting between the two teams by a 5-0 mark. Both teams have similar records. But what makes the Flames a good pick in my opinion is the fatigue factor. Los Angeles was playing yesterday, and tonight’s game marks their 7th game in 11 days. Ouch! Meanwhile, the Flames have benefited from a day’s rest in each of their past 2 contests.
Final pick: Bet the Flames at -114 (decimal odds = 1.88) for a ROI of 9.5%.
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Red Wings |
+102 |
+145 |
2,02 |
2,45 |
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Canucks |
-113 |
-145 |
1,88 |
1,69 |
X |
I love this pick. Several Canucks players were forced to miss Saturday’s game because of mumps. They are expected to be back (at least most of them). Vancouver traded Alex Burrows but Detroit will be missing Nyquist who has been suspended, which overall is a plus for Vancouver. Also, Detroit is coming off its bye week, and as mentioned earlier teams have done terribly in such a case (winning 25%-30% of the time in their first game back).
The Wings suffered 5 straight losses before upsetting both the Capitals and the Penguins. However, they followed that up by losing 3-1 to the Islanders.
Final pick: Bet the Canucks at -113 (decimal odds = 1.88) for a ROI of 11.6%.
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PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Maple Leafs |
+130 |
+150 |
2,30 |
2,50 |
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Sharks |
-144 |
-150 |
1,69 |
1,67 |
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The Leafs are expecting to have Mitch Marner back tonight, as well as newly acquired Brian Boyle. The Sharks have won the last 8 matchups versus Toronto (13 of the last 14), but they have been slumping recently with a 3-1-5 record, including three straight home losses.
Final pick: No value bet.
Good luck!
Professor MJ
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