Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-04-11

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

There are five games in the next-to-last regular season day. I can’t project the Thunder-Timberwolves game because it is unknown whether OKC will rest some of its best players considering they are locked into the 6th seed in the Western Conference (the line is also off the board, waiting to get fresh news about who plays and who doesn’t). Out of the remaining 4 games, I only found a small value bet. Here are today’s projections:

APRIL 11, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hornets

+7,5

+7,6

+292

+313

3,92

4,13

 

-3,2%

Hawks

-7,5

-7,6

-333

-313

1,30

1,32

 

-1,6%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Nuggets

-1

+1,7

-108

+114

1,93

2,14

 

-10,3%

Mavericks

+1

-1,7

-102

-114

1,98

1,88

X

5,5%

Tip: Bet the Mavericks.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Pelicans

+3

+2,3

+132

+124

2,32

2,24

 

3,4%

Lakers

-3

-2,3

-146

-124

1,68

1,81

 

-8,1%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Suns

+3,5

+4

+144

+167

2,44

2,67

 

-6,5%

Kings

-3,5

-4

-160

-167

1,63

1,60

 

1,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

My only pick of the day goes to the Mavericks +1 against the Nuggets. In my opinion, the biggest factor in this game is each team’s current mindset. There is no doubt in my mind that Dallas will be much more excited to play tonight. First of all, it will be their last home game and they will be paying tribute to Tony Romo who recently announced his retirement as a Dallas Cowboys. The team certainly won’t want to let their fans down. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are coming off a devastating last-second loss to the Thunder, which officially eliminated them from playoff contention. I’m not sure they will deploy a lot of energy. Mudiay and Faried are questionable to play for Denver, while Seth Curry is out for Dallas. The home team has won all 3 meetings this season, including a 10-point win by the Mavs in Dallas. Over the last 9 matchups against Denver, Dallas is 5-3-1 against the spread.

Good luck on your plays!

Professor MJ