Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-04-10

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Only three days left in the NBA regular season, but I’m still looking for value plays. Things get more complicated at this time of the year because of teams resting or limiting players. Based on the information in hand at the moment, I see a couple of 4-star bets, along with a 1-star bet. Let’s dive into the full projections:

APRIL 10, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Pacers

-9

-5,4

-470

-213

1,21

1,47

 

-31,9%

76ers

+9

+5,4

+400

+213

5,00

3,13

X

27,1%

Tip: Bet the 76ers.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Nets

+10,5

+10,7

+545

+622

6,45

7,22

 

-3,2%

Celtics

-10,5

-10,7

-665

-622

1,15

1,16

 

-1,6%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Cavaliers

+4,5

+4,3

+162

+178

2,62

2,78

 

-0,7%

Heat

-4,5

-4,3

-180

-178

1,56

1,56

 

-4,0%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Magic

+8,5

+9,1

+346

+425

4,46

5,25

 

-6,5%

Bulls

-8,5

-9,1

-400

-425

1,25

1,24

 

1,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hornets

+6,5

+6,1

+252

+238

3,52

3,38

 

2,5%

Bucks

-6,5

-6,1

-285

-238

1,35

1,42

 

-7,3%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Wizards

+3,5

-0,9

+142

-108

2,42

1,93

X

25,5%

Pistons

-3,5

+0,9

-157

+108

1,64

2,08

 

-30,3%

Tip: Bet the Wizards.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Spurs

-4,5

-5,7

-193

-223

1,52

1,45

X

7,5%

Blazers

+4,5

+5,7

+173

+223

2,73

3,23

 

-12,2%

Tip: Bet the Spurs.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Rockets

+7

+6,2

+269

+240

3,69

3,40

 

4,2%

Clippers

-7

-6,2

-305

-240

1,33

1,42

 

-8,9%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Jazz

+10

+10,3

+456

+552

5,56

6,52

 

-3,0%

Warriors

-10

-10,3

-543

-552

1,18

1,18

 

-1,8%

Tip: No value bet.

 

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I’m going against the grain by picking the 76ers +9 against the Pacers. After going through an unsuccessful stretch, the Pacers have rebounded with 3 straight wins to position themselves in a spot where they control their own destiny. They look like a totally different team when playing at home versus on the road (28-12 at home, 12-28 on the road), they are just so inconsistent. I like the Sixers to cover the 9-point spread. Here is how the previous three matchups went: Indiana won both games at home (one in overtime, the other by a 13-point margin), while Philly won in extra time at home. 73% of the bets are going the Pacers’ way.

 

I like Washington +3.5 at the Pistons to spoil the party for the last ever NBA game to be played at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Wizards’ leading scorer John Wall, as well as Otto Porter may either sit out or be limited on the court. Also notice that Washington is locked into the third seed, so they have limited incentive to win the game, except getting in the playoffs on a high note. The Pistons are giving more playing time to reserve players though. Washington is 5-1 against the spread versus Detroit over the last six meetings. The Pistons are playing the backend of a back-to-back set (3rd game in 4 nights, 4th game in 6 nights).

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Spurs -4.5 in Portland. San Antonio is assured to finish second in the Western Conference, while the Blazers are locked into 8th place. The Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich, has a history of resting players at various times during the season, but he’s pretty upset about recent performances and declared that nobody is going to rest in the final two games of the regular seasons. I expect the team to play very hard based on those comments. The Spurs lost any hope of grabbing the top seed by losing two of the past three games, including one against the lowly Lakers. Meanwhile, the Blazers went on an amazing 15-5 stretch which allowed them to secure a playoff spot. The motivation level won’t be as high tonight. The team is still without Jusuf Nurkic.

Thank you for reading this report guys!

Professor MJ