Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-04-03

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Hi guys, I hope you had a good weekend! I went back to the Olympic Stadium for the first time in several years to attend the Pirates-Jays exhibition game Saturday afternoon. It brought back some great memories of the many Montreal Expos games I went to over the years. I’m really crossing my fingers that a team comes back here, whether via expansion or a transfer.

Let’s go back to our basketball business: only one game tonight and I don’t see any value betting on either side. Let’s see the details:

APRIL 3, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Blazers

+2

+2,2

+118

+122

2,18

2,22

 

-4,0%

Twolves

-2

-2,2

-130

-122

1,77

1,82

 

-0,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

The Blazers have been on fire by winning 9 of their last 10 contests (they went 13-3 in March!). How will they react following the injury to Jusuf Nurkic who will be out for the rest of the regular season? They did win their first game without him, but playing the Phoenix Suns at home is not the best indicator. I deducted 7% to Portland’s win probability to account for this injury. The Blazers have won both meetings against Minnesota this year, and they have won 6 of the last 7 matchups overall (they went 5-2 against the spread on those games). I’m not surprised by the fact that most people are betting Portland since the general public tends to overreact to recent performances/streaks. I will soon write an article about a study I made on this topic (applied to the NHL, but I’ll look into the NBA eventually).

If you are considering placing a bet on the Blazers I would do it early in the day, while if you like the Timberwolves I’d wait until we get closer to the game because I expect the line to move a little more in favor of Portland (might drop to 1 or 1.5? We’ll see! That is just a personal opinion).

Have a good day!

Professor MJ