NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Hi guys, today I’ve got a couple of value bets, each rated 1 star. I’m also going to make a few comments about other games, just in case you were considering betting them. You will find the full report below:

MARCH 28, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bucks	+3,5	+3,2	+149	+146	2,49	2,46		0,1%
Hornets	-3,5	-3,2	-165	-146	1,61	1,68		-4,8%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Twolves	+4,5	+4,2	+162	+174	2,62	2,74		-0,1%
Pacers	-4,5	-4,2	-180	-174	1,56	1,57		-4,7%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
76ers	+3	+4,1	+131	+169	2,31	2,69		-11,4%
Nets	-3	-4,1	-145	-169	1,69	1,59	X	6,6%
Tip: Bet the Nets.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Suns	+7,5	+7,6	+297	+317	3,97	4,17		-3,2%
Hawks	-7,5	-7,6	-340	-317	1,29	1,32		-1,6%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Heat	-2,5	-3,6	-133	-156	1,75	1,64	X	6,6%
Pistons	+2,5	+3,6	+120	+156	2,20	2,56		-11,4%
Tip: Bet the Heat.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Warriors	+1,5	+1,3	+102	+111	2,02	2,11		-0,7%
Rockets	-1,5	-1,3	-113	-111	1,88	1,90		-4,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Nuggets	+2	+2	+116	+119	2,16	2,19		-2,4%
Blazers	-2	-2	-128	-119	1,78	1,84		-2,4%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Wizards	-9	-9	-457	-419	1,22	1,24		-2,4%
Lakers	+9	+9	+390	+419	4,90	5,19		-2,4%
Tip: No value bet.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

First, I’m taking the Nets -3 against the 76ers, despite Brooklyn playing a fourth game in six nights. The Nets have improved a lot since going through an awful 1-27 stretch: they have won 7 of their past 15 games (a .467 record). Meanwhile, the Sixers have not done as bad as you’d expected since losing their star player, Joel Embiid: they have been 10-18 (a .357 record, which is not that much lower than what their record was prior to Embiid’s injury). Philly won both previous meetings this year (by a single point at home and by 10 points on the road, but Embiid took part of both games). One fact that might worry you if you are betting Brooklyn: the Sixers are a league-high 46-27 against the spread in 2016-2017. However, I do like the fact that most of the money is going on Philadelphia, and yet the line moved half a point in favor of the Nets.

My final pick of the day goes to the Heat -2.5 in Detroit. Both teams will be missing an important part of their offense: Dion Waiters for Miami, Reggie Jackson for Detroit. The Pistons are on the second leg of back-to-back games after yet another bad performance yesterday (a 109-95 loss in New York). They are quickly falling out of the playoff race after losing 7 of their past 8 contests. Miami has won 21 of the last 30 meetings with Detroit.

A few words about other games (non-official picks):

• If you forced me to pick a team in the Minnesota-Indiana game, I’d go with the Timberwolves +4.5 without hesitation. 60% of the money has gone on Indiana, but the line dropped by half a point. It looks like sharp bettors are taking Minnesota. One could argue that both teams are struggling (Minnesota for sure as they have lost six straight, while Indiana has been mediocre), and I have been noticing more and more a tendency for underdogs to beat the spread when two struggling teams meet.

• I would also go with the Rockets -1.5 versus the Warriors. Golden State seems to have found his rhythm back, as they are riding a 7-game winning streak. They are now 9-5 since losing Kevin Durant to an injury, but notice they have been 4-4 on the road. Playing in Houston won’t be easy. I’m a bit worried about Harden playing with an injured wrist and Ryan Anderson missing the game though. Around 70% of the bets have gone on the Warriors, but again the line moved by half a point in the opposite direction. Golden State is 33-38 against the spread this season versus 42-31 for the Rockets.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

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