Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-03-22

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Hi guys, today I’ve got a 4-star value bet, as well as a couple of 1-star bet. As usual, let’s start with the complete projections in numbers followed by some additional comments about the games where I see a profitable bet:

MARCH 22, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hornets

-5

-4,1

-203

-169

1,49

1,59

 

-9,8%

Magic

+5

+4,1

+182

+169

2,82

2,69

 

5,0%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Pacers

+7,5

+6,9

+292

+281

3,92

3,81

 

2,5%

Celtics

-7,5

-6,9

-333

-281

1,30

1,36

 

-7,3%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Pistons

-1,5

-0,8

-118

-106

1,85

1,94

 

-8,1%

Bulls

+1,5

+0,8

+107

+106

2,07

2,06

 

3,4%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

76ers

+11

+10,4

+537

+567

6,37

6,67

 

2,5%

Thunder

-11

-10,4

-654

-567

1,15

1,18

 

-7,3%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hawks

+7

+9,7

+264

+489

3,64

5,89

 

-24,5%

Wizards

-7

-9,7

-300

-489

1,33

1,20

X

19,8%

Tip: Bet the Wizards.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Cavaliers

-3,5

-4,7

-158

-187

1,63

1,53

X

7,5%

Nuggets

+3,5

+4,7

+143

+187

2,43

2,87

 

-12,2%

Tip: Bet the Cavaliers.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Bucks

-4

-3,7

-175

-160

1,57

1,63

 

-4,8%

Kings

+4

+3,7

+158

+160

2,58

2,60

 

0,1%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Knicks

+10,5

+9,2

+516

+433

6,16

5,33

X

6,6%

Jazz

-10,5

-9,2

-625

-433

1,16

1,23

 

-11,4%

Tip: Bet the Knicks.

 

 

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

The best value bet of the day goes to the Wizards -7 against the Hawks. Both teams have been struggling of late. Washington was doing great until March 13th: they have won a single game in 5 tries since that date. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been alternating series of wins and losses: lost 3, won 2, lost 3, won 3 and lost 4 (their current streak). With their leading scorer Paul Millsap out, as well as their starting small forward Kent Bazemore, things aren’t looking great in Atlanta. The Wizards have beaten the Hawks in 2 out of 3 meetings this season. The latest game ended by a decisive 112-86 Washington win on the road.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

I’m taking the Cavaliers -3.5 in Denver. The latest reports point out to a possible return in action for Kyle Korver. He got in a full practice yesterday and he mentioned feeling a lot better and well-rested. On the Denver side, their leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is unlikely to play (he is listed as “doubtful”). After missing 4 games, Wilson Chandler may be back tonight, but no confirmation as of yet. Cleveland has had an additional day of rest. I’m a bit worried about most of the money being wagered on Cleveland, and yet the line moved in the opposite direction (opened at 4, now at 3.5). In the only previous meeting in 2016-2017, Cleveland took it easily 125-109 at home. Not only have the Cavs won the last 3 meetings overall, but they beat the Nuggets in Denver on three straight contests. In fact, Cleveland is 5-1-1 against the spread versus Denver over the past 7 matchups.

Finally, I’m picking the Knicks +10.5 in Utah. No major injuries on both sides (Noah for New York, Favors and Mack for Utah). The Jazz won by 5 points at Madison Square Garden early in the season. The Knicks are 7-3 against the spread versus Utah since 2012. They have lost 5 of their past 6 games overall, while Utah is on a 3-game skid (in which they averaged only 89.7 points per game).

Enjoy the games!

Professor MJ

Come join my Facebook group! https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ/