Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-03-09

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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

March 9th, 2017

 

Before we move on to today’s projections, here is an update on my record per star rating since documenting my plays and posting on the web:

  • 5 STARS = 5-2
  • 4 STARS = 3-2-1
  • 3 STARS = 3-2
  • 2 STARS = 4-4
  • 1 STAR = 11-13

Overall: 26-23-1 (win percentage = 53.1%). On picks with 3+ stars: 11-6-1 (win percentage = 64.7%).

We have 5 games tonight and I have 3 values bets (rated 4, 3 and 2 stars, respectively). Here are the details:

MARCH 9, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Cavaliers

-5,5

-3,3

-218

-150

1,46

1,67

 

-20,4%

Pistons

+5,5

+3,3

+195

+150

2,95

2,50

X

15,7%

Tip: Bet the Pistons.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Clippers

+2,5

+4,1

+129

+170

2,29

2,70

 

-15,5%

Grizzlies

-2,5

-4,1

-143

-170

1,70

1,59

X

10,7%

Tip: Bet the Grizzlies.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Spurs

-3

-2,8

-148

-137

1,68

1,73

 

-4,0%

Thunder

+3

+2,8

+134

+137

2,34

2,37

 

-0,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

76ers

+9,5

+7,6

+435

+316

5,35

4,16

X

13,2%

Blazers

-9,5

-7,6

-515

-316

1,19

1,32

 

-18,0%

Tip: Bet the 76ers.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Lakers

+6

+5,2

+205

+205

3,05

3,05

 

4,2%

Suns

-6

-5,2

-230

-205

1,43

1,49

 

-8,9%

Tip: No value bet.

 

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

Despite playing the second leg of back-to-back games, I’m taking the Pistons +5.5 versus Cleveland. My projections have the Cavaliers favorite by 3.3, so when the line opened at 3.5 / 4 in some bookies there wasn’t any value there. As of this morning, 76% of the bets on the spread have gone on Cleveland, moving the line to 5.5. Perhaps the public is reacting to Detroit’s 115-98 loss in Indiana last night. Prior to that game, the Pistons had won 5 of their last 7 games, while Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 6. Keep in mind that Kevin Love, Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith are all out for tonight.

 

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

I suggest betting the 76ers +9.5 in Portland. Yes, their star player Joel Embiid is out for the season, and his backup Jahlil Okafor is questionable for tonight. But 9.5 points? Seems high to me, and my statistical models tend to agree. The Sixers beat the Blazers 93-92 in Philly earlier this year. The last time the 76ers played in Portland was a year ago, where the Blazers took it by a 108-105 score. The line opened at 10 and has dropped half a point following slightly more bets being placed on Philly.

 

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

We end today’s write-up by picking Memphis -2.5 versus the Clippers. Unlike the Cleveland-Detroit game, this time we are betting against the team playing a second game in as many nights. The Clippers lost 107-91 in Minnesota, a very disappointing result after beating Boston and Chicago. The Grizzlies are on a 3-game losing streak, which culminated with an embarrassing 13-point loss at home against the worst-team in the league, the Nets. The level of confidence is probably not very high in the Grizzlies locker room, but I can’t imagine the players not being focused and not looking for forgiveness from their home fans. The Clippers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this year (each team was able to win one game on the road).

 

A special thanks to those of you who have been reading my write-ups on a daily basis over the last several weeks! I really appreciate that you take some time out of your day to read my analyses.

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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