Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-03-08

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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

March 8th, 2017

 

I have decided to change the way the estimated ROI (Return On Investment) are calculated because the previous method was putting too much weight on heavy underdogs. Meanwhile, teams favorite by 5+ points had little chance of being rated 4-star or 5-star bets. The categorization method has also changed a little bit (i.e. the criteria for selecting the number of stars). I felt like those changes were necessary, even though what I did in the past led a 10-4-1 record on bets rated with 3 stars or more. Hopefully it won’t jinx me ;-)

Below are today’s NBA projections:

MARCH 8, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Bulls

-1,5

-1,3

-118

-110

1,85

1,91

 

-4,0%

Magic

+1,5

+1,3

+107

+110

2,07

2,10

 

-0,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Nets

+9,5

+12,4

+442

+888

5,42

9,88

 

-26,2%

Hawks

-9,5

-12,4

-525

-888

1,19

1,11

X

21,4%

Tip: Bet the Hawks.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hornets

+4

+3,4

+151

+152

2,51

2,52

 

2,5%

Heat

-4

-3,4

-167

-152

1,60

1,66

 

-7,3%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Knicks

+5

+6,7

+184

+268

2,84

3,68

 

-16,3%

Bucks

-5

-6,7

-205

-268

1,49

1,37

X

11,6%

Tip: Bet the Bucks.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Raptors

+2

-2,2

+120

-125

2,20

1,80

X

32,1%

Pelicans

-2

+2,2

-133

+125

1,75

2,25

 

-36,8%

Tip: Bet the Raptors.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Jazz

+6,5

+8,4

+235

+375

3,35

4,75

 

-18,0%

Rockets

-6,5

-8,4

-265

-375

1,38

1,27

X

13,2%

Tip: Bet the Rockets.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Clippers

-3

-2,4

-150

-127

1,67

1,79

 

-7,3%

Twolves

+3

+2,4

+136

+127

2,36

2,27

 

2,5%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Pistons

+3,5

+2,8

+147

+135

2,47

2,35

 

3,4%

Pacers

-3,5

-2,8

-163

-135

1,61

1,74

 

-8,1%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Wizards

+2

+2,7

+116

+133

2,16

2,33

 

-8,1%

Nuggets

-2

-2,7

-128

-133

1,78

1,75

 

3,4%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Celtics

+8,5

+8,4

+342

+368

4,42

4,68

 

-1,6%

Warriors

-8,5

-8,4

-395

-368

1,25

1,27

 

-3,2%

Tip: No value bet.

 

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m picking the Raptors +2 in New Orleans. The Raptors have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including a  4-1 record in New Orleans. The Pelicans are just 1-5 since the acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins. I deducted 8% to Toronto’s estimated win probability because of the absence of Kyle Lowry (other adjustments were made for the acquisitions of Ibaka and Tucker, the injury to Carroll, and the fact that Cousins is now part of the Pelicans lineup). The Raptors are 4-2 since losing Lowry to an injury. Toronto benefited from 3 full days of rest, while New Orleans will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights (4th in 6 days).

 

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend the Hawks -9.5 versus Brooklyn. The Hawks have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (4 straight at home), including a 20-point win in Brooklyn earlier this season. Their second-highest scorer Dennis Schroder was benched for a good portion of the last game after exchanging heated words with one of his teammates. I’m pretty sure he will be focused and motivated tonight. After losing 119-111 to the league’s best team (Golden State), the level of competition won’t be as stiff when facing the league’s worst team: things should seem easier tonight for the Hawks. They certainly won’t take the Nets lightly considering the recent failures for Atlanta, and the shocking 13-point win by Brooklyn in Memphis.

 

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

Take the Rockets -6.5 at home against the Jazz for several reasons (if it weren’t for the numbers, I’d grade this bet 4 stars). First of all, Utah will be playing a 3rd game in 4 days (4th game in 6 days). Their second-highest scorer George Hill is questionable to play because of toe soreness. Even if he plays, he will be affected by this injury. Derrick Favors is out.  Joe Johnson is questionable. On Houston’s side, Ryan Anderson is doubtful to play. I also like the fact that Utah has had fairly easy games recently (New Orleans, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Minnesota), while the Rockets have faced much tougher competition (San Antonio, Memphis, LA Clippers). I could envision the Jazz going straight into a wall tonight.

 

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I’m going with Milwaukee -5 versus New York. Carmelo Anthony will play for the Knicks, but he has to deal with a knee injury. Joakim Noah is still out for New York. Milwaukee is back in playoff contention, having won 3 straight (including wins against the Raptors and the Clippers) and 7 of their last 10.

 

Enjoy the games tonight!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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