Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-02-28

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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

February 28th, 2017

 

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

Today we have a 4-star rated value bet, as well as 3-4 more which are worth considering. Before going into the details, here are the numbers obtained from the statistical models for tonight’s games:

FEBRUARY 28, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Warriors

-6

-3.8

-253

-161

1,40

1,62

 

-13,9%

Wizards

+6

+3.8

+225

+161

3,25

2,61

X

24,5%

Tip: Bet the Wizards.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Blazers

+4.5

+5.5

+163

+216

2,63

3,16

 

-16,8%

Pistons

-4.5

-5.5

-181

-216

1,55

1,46

X

6,1%

Tip: Bet the Pistons.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Nuggets

+2.5

+2.9

+122

+139

2,22

2,39

 

-7,1%

Bulls

-2.5

-2.9

-135

-139

1,74

1,72

 

1,2%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Suns

+9

+10.5

+377

+571

4,77

6,71

 

-28,9%

Grizzlies

-9

-10.5

-440

-571

1,23

1,18

X

4,4%

Tip: You could consider betting the Grizzlies, but only at the right price.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Jazz

-1.5

+0.8

-120

+107

1,83

2,07

 

-11,4%

Thunder

+1.5

-0.8

+109

-107

2,09

1,93

X

8,0%

Tip: Bet the Thunder assuming Oladipo has a 50/50 chance of playing.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hornets

-4

-2.5

-167

-129

1,60

1,78

 

-9,9%

Lakers

+4

+2.5

+151

+129

2,51

2,29

X

9,6%

Tip: Bet the Lakers.

 

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I do like the Wizards +6 (money line +225, decimal odds = 3.25) at home against Golden State. This game will not only be the second of back-to-back games for the Warriors, but it will also be their 3rd in 4 nights. Interestingly, the line opened at 7 and has since dropped to 6, despite the majority of the money being wagered on Golden State (81% spread, 62% money line). You can draw your own conclusions (sharps siding with Washington?).

It is worth noting though that the Warriors have won 11 of their last 12 meetings against the Wizards, including the last 6 in DC. Stephen Curry missed all of his 11 three-pointers in his last game. We’ll see how he responds tonight.

The Wizards went through an impressive stretch where they went 18-3 before losing their last 2 games (in Philadelphia and at home against the Jazz). They will definitely be focused tonight and I expect them to fight hard against Golden State. The recent acquisition of Bogdanovic should also help.

 

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

Coincidence or not, I’m going against another team playing a third game in four nights: I’m picking the Lakers +4 (money line +151, decimal odds = 2.51) hosting the Hornets.

Charlotte has a 6-19 record over the past 25 games, and they just recently snapped a 12-game road losing streak by beating Sacramento. Cody Zeller is questionable for tonight.

The Lakers haven’t been on fire either. They are on a 4-game losing streak, and have lost their past 4 meetings versus Charlotte. The latest one came in December, where the Lakers blew a 19-point lead before losing by 4. The Lou Williams trade has been accounted for when making the projections. Los Angeles had a horrible start in their last game against San Antonio, and I expect them to start strong tonight. I also like the fact that more than 80% of the public has been betting the Hornets.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

  • Historically, most of my picks have been on underdogs. Tonight I’m going with the Pistons -4.5 (money line -181, decimal odds = 1.55) at home against the Blazers. Portland has lost 4 of their last 5 games, and Detroit has beaten them three straight times.
  • My statistical models indicate to bet the Thunder, but notice the projections were made assuming Oladipo has a 50/50 chance of playing (missed the last two games and was limited at practice yesterday). The Thunder have won the last 10 games at home against the Jazz! The acquisitions of Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott boost Oklahoma City’s lineup. Utah is playing the third and final game of a road trip where they have won the first two. They just got an impressive win in Washington, and I expect a certain letdown.

 

I would like to end today’s write-up by recommending betting the Grizzlies if the money line goes to -425 (decimal odds = 1.235) or higher.

 

Thank you very much for your support and enjoy the games tonight!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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