Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-02-27

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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

February 27th, 2017

 

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

I hope you had a great weekend! Today we have 7 games, and I only see one value bet, and another one where I suggest following some guidelines in the text below. Here are the projections for the day:

FEBRUARY 27, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Raptors

-3.5

-3.5

-167

-154

1,60

1,65

 

-3,1%

Knicks

+3.5

+3.5

+151

+154

2,51

2,54

 

-1,2%

Tip: Avoid betting this game.

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Warriors

-13.5

-13.3

-1300

-1120

1,08

1,09

 

-1,1%

76ers

+13.5

+13.3

+944

+1120

10,44

12,20

 

-14,4%

Tip: Avoid betting this game.

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Bucks

+7.5

NA

+277

NA

3,77

NA

 

#######

Cavaliers

-7.5

NA

-315

NA

1,32

NA

 

#######

Tip: Avoid betting this game.

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hawks

+3.5

+2.3

+147

+126

2,47

2,26

X

9,3%

Celtics

-3.5

-2.3

-163

-126

1,61

1,79

 

-10,0%

Tip: Bet the Hawks but it is important to read the guidelines below!!

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Heat

-1

-1.5

-109

-113

1,92

1,88

 

1,7%

Mavericks

+1

+1.5

-101

+113

1,99

2,13

 

-6,6%

Tip: Avoid betting this game.

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Pacers

+10.5

+9.7

+500

+486

6,00

5,86

 

2,4%

Rockets

-10.5

-9.7

-603

-486

1,17

1,21

 

-3,3%

Tip: Avoid betting this game.

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Twolves

-5

-3.1

-200

-143

1,50

1,70

 

-11,7%

Kings

+5

+3.1

+180

+143

2,80

2,43

X

15,2%

Tip: Bet the Kings.

 

“GOOD" BET (3 stars / 5):

I’m taking the Kings +5 (money line +180 or 2.80). Sacramento is 2-0 against Minnesota this year. Both games were pretty close: 109-105 in Minnesota (where 57 of the 109 points for Sacramento came from Cousins and Gay, which are both not playing for the Kings tonight) and 106-103 back in October in Sacramento. The Timberwolves are 8-18 on the road this year.

The Kings are 1-1 since trading Cousins. On February 23rd I recommended betting the Kings at home against the Nuggets because even after deducting 20% to their win probability they were still a value bet at +273. I felt like the market was overreacting to the Cousins trade. In their next game the line looked fine. They lost badly 99-85 at home to Charlotte and I believe the line is back to “overreaction” mode.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

As of 2:30pm I’m going with the Hawks +3.5 or money line +147 (decimal odds = 2.47). My projections have the Hawks +126 versus Celtics -126 based on Avery Bradley being “doubtful” to play. I deducted 6.5% to Boston’s chances of winning based on this information. If he is out, I would deduct 8% (instead of 6.5%) which would make my projections become Hawks +119 Celtics -119. If he plays: Hawks +165 Celtics -165. Those numbers above account for Boston playing the second of back-to-back games.

In their only previous matchup this year Boston won 103-101 in Atlanta. The Celtics may be looking ahead to their clash with Cleveland in two days from now. After starting the season 9-2, Atlanta has gone 23-24 since then. Boston led by 17 in Toronto, only to lose by 10. In their next game, they blew a 15-point lead, but still managed to win it.

 

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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