Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-02-27
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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
February 27th, 2017
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!
I hope you had a great weekend! Today we have 7 games, and I only see one value bet, and another one where I suggest following some guidelines in the text below. Here are the projections for the day:
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FEBRUARY 27, 2017 |
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SPREAD |
MONEY LINE |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Raptors |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-167 |
-154 |
1,60 |
1,65 |
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-3,1% |
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Knicks |
+3.5 |
+3.5 |
+151 |
+154 |
2,51 |
2,54 |
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-1,2% |
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Tip: Avoid betting this game. |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Warriors |
-13.5 |
-13.3 |
-1300 |
-1120 |
1,08 |
1,09 |
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-1,1% |
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76ers |
+13.5 |
+13.3 |
+944 |
+1120 |
10,44 |
12,20 |
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-14,4% |
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Tip: Avoid betting this game. |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Bucks |
+7.5 |
NA |
+277 |
NA |
3,77 |
NA |
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####### |
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Cavaliers |
-7.5 |
NA |
-315 |
NA |
1,32 |
NA |
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####### |
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Tip: Avoid betting this game. |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Hawks |
+3.5 |
+2.3 |
+147 |
+126 |
2,47 |
2,26 |
X |
9,3% |
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Celtics |
-3.5 |
-2.3 |
-163 |
-126 |
1,61 |
1,79 |
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-10,0% |
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Tip: Bet the Hawks but it is important to read the guidelines below!! |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Heat |
-1 |
-1.5 |
-109 |
-113 |
1,92 |
1,88 |
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1,7% |
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Mavericks |
+1 |
+1.5 |
-101 |
+113 |
1,99 |
2,13 |
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-6,6% |
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Tip: Avoid betting this game. |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Pacers |
+10.5 |
+9.7 |
+500 |
+486 |
6,00 |
5,86 |
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2,4% |
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Rockets |
-10.5 |
-9.7 |
-603 |
-486 |
1,17 |
1,21 |
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-3,3% |
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Tip: Avoid betting this game. |
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BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Twolves |
-5 |
-3.1 |
-200 |
-143 |
1,50 |
1,70 |
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-11,7% |
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Kings |
+5 |
+3.1 |
+180 |
+143 |
2,80 |
2,43 |
X |
15,2% |
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Tip: Bet the Kings. |
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“GOOD" BET (3 stars / 5):
I’m taking the Kings +5 (money line +180 or 2.80). Sacramento is 2-0 against Minnesota this year. Both games were pretty close: 109-105 in Minnesota (where 57 of the 109 points for Sacramento came from Cousins and Gay, which are both not playing for the Kings tonight) and 106-103 back in October in Sacramento. The Timberwolves are 8-18 on the road this year.
The Kings are 1-1 since trading Cousins. On February 23rd I recommended betting the Kings at home against the Nuggets because even after deducting 20% to their win probability they were still a value bet at +273. I felt like the market was overreacting to the Cousins trade. In their next game the line looked fine. They lost badly 99-85 at home to Charlotte and I believe the line is back to “overreaction” mode.
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
As of 2:30pm I’m going with the Hawks +3.5 or money line +147 (decimal odds = 2.47). My projections have the Hawks +126 versus Celtics -126 based on Avery Bradley being “doubtful” to play. I deducted 6.5% to Boston’s chances of winning based on this information. If he is out, I would deduct 8% (instead of 6.5%) which would make my projections become Hawks +119 Celtics -119. If he plays: Hawks +165 Celtics -165. Those numbers above account for Boston playing the second of back-to-back games.
In their only previous matchup this year Boston won 103-101 in Atlanta. The Celtics may be looking ahead to their clash with Cleveland in two days from now. After starting the season 9-2, Atlanta has gone 23-24 since then. Boston led by 17 in Toronto, only to lose by 10. In their next game, they blew a 15-point lead, but still managed to win it.
Professor MJ
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