Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-02-16

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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

February 16th, 2017

 

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

After a very busy day last night, only 2 games today. Any profitable bets? Let’s see the projections:

FEBRUARY 16, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Wizards

-2

-3.7

-134

-158

1,75

1,63

X

6,9%

Pacers

+2

+3.7

+121

+158

2,21

2,58

 

-14,3%

Tip: Bet the Wizards, but only if Thaddeus Young doesn't play.

 

 BOOKMAKER

PROF MJ

BOOKMAKER

PROF MJ 

BOOKMAKER 

PROF MJ 

PICK 

 

Celtics

+1

+2.1

+101

+118

2,01

2,18

 

-7,8%

Bulls

-1

-2.1

-111

-118

1,90

1,85

 

2,9%

Tip: See more detailed comments below.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

You could bet the Wizards tonight, but only if Thaddeus Young is out for Indiana. My projected money lines assuming he doesn’t play are Wizards -158 vs Pacers +158, making Washington -134 a profitable bet with a 6.9% ROI. Don’t take anything less than -138 (decimal: 1.725) though.

However, if Young is able to play the projected money lines become Wizards -133 vs Pacers +133, which means you shouldn’t bet (unless the bookies offer you Washington -115 (decimal: 1.87) or better).

As of noon, 92% of the public money has been going on Washington. For those of you who have been following me, you know I’m more of a contrarian: I feel more confident about my picks when a small percentage of people agree with me. This makes me worry a bit more about this pick. I leave it up to you to decide if you want to bet Washington or not.

A few more pieces of information: the Wizards have won 17 of their last 20 games. Meanwhile, the Pacers are on a 5-game losing streak, after winning 7 straight!! It appears like they are indeed missing Thaddeus Young who has missed the last seven outings. One final word about this game: during all 3 meetings between those two teams this year, the home team has won by 6 points or less.

 

As of now, you should avoid betting the Celtics-Bulls game, unless the money line improves on Chicago. If you can get -103 (decimal: 1.97) or better, go ahead and bet the Bulls.

It is important to note that the above projections assume that Dwayne Wade is out. If he plays, the projected money lines become Celtics +153 versus Bulls -153. In this case, I would recommend betting the Celtics if you can get +170 (decimal: 2.70) or better and betting the Bulls if you can obtain -132 (decimal 1.76) or better.

More information about the Celtics-Bulls game: Boston has won 11 of their past 12 games. There are speculations that they might be trying to trade for Jimmy Butler: they get a chance to have a close look at him tonight (though he’s playing hurt). 89% of the money has been wagered on Boston so far.

 

Have a great Thursday everyone and thanks again for reading!!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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