NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

I’ve got two value bets for you tonight so let’s have a look at the projections:

APRIL 20, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Cavaliers	-2,5	-3,3	-135	-147	1,74	1,68		4,2%
Pacers	+2,5	+3,3	+122	+147	2,22	2,47		-8,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Raptors	+1,5	-2,8	+105	-137	2,05	1,73	X	18,1%
Bucks	-1,5	+2,8	-116	+137	1,86	2,37		-22,9%
Tip: Bet the Raptors.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Spurs	-3,5	-4,7	-161	-189	1,62	1,53	X	7,5%
Grizzlies	+3,5	+4,7	+145	+189	2,45	2,89		-12,2%
Tip: Bet the Spurs.

 

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

My first pick of the day goes to the Raptors +1.5 in Milwaukee. In the first two games of the series I estimated the Bucks’ chances of winning the game at 25.85%, which was in line with Vegas. Now that these teams are headed for the Bradley Center we need to make an adjustment for home-field advantage. NBA home teams generally win around 58.2% of their games (they went 718-512 this season, which is the equivalent of a .584 record). In plain words, playing at home gives you an 8.2% edge. In this case, a Toronto-Milwaukee game played on a neutral court would yield a 25.85% + 8.2% = 34.05% win probability for the Bucks, and a 34.05% + 8.2% = 42.25% win probability for a game played in Milwaukee. In terms of money line, that turns out to be 1 / 0.4225 = 2.37 (American odds: +137) which explains why I’m projecting Toronto -137 versus Milwaukee +137. The Raptors had beaten the spread on five straight occasions against the Bucks, but Milwaukee followed that up with their own 3-game winning streak against the spread. As of 9am Eastern Time, 65% of the bets are going Milwaukee’s way which is something I like (as a contrarian).

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m also taking the Spurs -3.5 in Memphis. Complaining about the officials does not sound like you are in control of your emotions, but that’s exactly what Grizzlies coach David Fizdale did after Game #2. Will it motivate its players and affect the way the game is officiated tonight? We’ll find out tonight, but I don’t like that kind of stuff. The Grizzlies did beat the Spurs on their two home meetings (104-96 and 89-74) so be aware of that. San Antonio was just as great on the road (30-11) as they were at home (31-10) in 2016/2017.

 

Cheers!

Professor MJ