Professor MJ's 2017 NBA Playoffs Projections: April 20

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

I’ve got two value bets for you tonight so let’s have a look at the projections:

APRIL 20, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Cavaliers

-2,5

-3,3

-135

-147

1,74

1,68

 

4,2%

Pacers

+2,5

+3,3

+122

+147

2,22

2,47

 

-8,9%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Raptors

+1,5

-2,8

+105

-137

2,05

1,73

X

18,1%

Bucks

-1,5

+2,8

-116

+137

1,86

2,37

 

-22,9%

Tip: Bet the Raptors.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Spurs

-3,5

-4,7

-161

-189

1,62

1,53

X

7,5%

Grizzlies

+3,5

+4,7

+145

+189

2,45

2,89

 

-12,2%

Tip: Bet the Spurs.

 


“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

My first pick of the day goes to the Raptors +1.5 in Milwaukee. In the first two games of the series I estimated the Bucks’ chances of winning the game at 25.85%, which was in line with Vegas. Now that these teams are headed for the Bradley Center we need to make an adjustment for home-field advantage. NBA home teams generally win around 58.2% of their games (they went 718-512 this season, which is the equivalent of a .584 record). In plain words, playing at home gives you an 8.2% edge. In this case, a Toronto-Milwaukee game played on a neutral court would yield a 25.85% + 8.2% = 34.05% win probability for the Bucks, and a 34.05% + 8.2% = 42.25% win probability for a game played in Milwaukee. In terms of money line, that turns out to be 1 / 0.4225 = 2.37 (American odds: +137) which explains why I’m projecting Toronto -137 versus Milwaukee +137. The Raptors had beaten the spread on five straight occasions against the Bucks, but Milwaukee followed that up with their own 3-game winning streak against the spread. As of 9am Eastern Time, 65% of the bets are going Milwaukee’s way which is something I like (as a contrarian).

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m also taking the Spurs -3.5 in Memphis. Complaining about the officials does not sound like you are in control of your emotions, but that’s exactly what Grizzlies coach David Fizdale did after Game #2. Will it motivate its players and affect the way the game is officiated tonight? We’ll find out tonight, but I don’t like that kind of stuff. The Grizzlies did beat the Spurs on their two home meetings (104-96 and 89-74) so be aware of that. San Antonio was just as great on the road (30-11) as they were at home (31-10) in 2016/2017.

 

Cheers!

Professor MJ