Professor MJ's 2017 NBA Playoffs Projections: April 19

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

We are now 4-0 with our picks thus far in the NBA playoffs (Jazz twice and Bulls twice). Following requests from several people, here is an update of our record per star-rating this season:

  • 5 STARS = 7-2
  • 4 STARS = 10-10-2
  • 3 STARS = 7-6
  • 2 STARS = 11-7
  • 1 STAR = 22-25

OVERALL: 57-50-2 (53.3%). On 2+ stars: 35-25-2 (58.3%).

Tonight we’ve got 2 value bets and you will find all the details below:

APRIL 19, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Hawks

+5,5

+5,9

+193

+232

2,93

3,32

 

-5,7%

Wizards

-5,5

-5,9

-216

-232

1,46

1,43

 

-0,9%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Thunder

+8

+7,1

+311

+288

4,11

3,88

 

5,0%

Rockets

-8

-7,1

-357

-288

1,28

1,35

 

-9,8%

Tip: Bet the Thunder.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Blazers

+13,5

+11,8

+1051

+771

11,51

8,71

X

10,1%

Warriors

-13,5

-11,8

-1500

-771

1,07

1,13

 

-14,7%

Tip: Bet the Blazers.

 


“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Blazers +13.5 in Golden State. It’s all about the Kevin Durant injury. Compared to game 1, Vegas dropped its spread by 1 point (from 14.5 to 13.5) whereas I dropped it by 2.8 points (from 14.6 to 11.8). Basically, I’m putting more weight into the injury. Durant did not practice yesterday and his coach said “If he didn’t practice, there’s concern.” At first the team said he suffered some cramps during the first game of the series, but it looks more serious than that considering he missed practice. It might turn into a lingering issue, and I’m pretty much betting he is either going to miss the game or that his play will be affected by the injury. I you like the pick, I recommend placing the bet as early as possible. If Durant plays the line won’t change that much, but if he is ruled out the line will probably drop a few points.

 

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

My system suggests taking the Thunder +8 in Houston. My projections have not changed at all since Game #1, while Vegas moved it by half a point which is enough to make it a profitable play (just barely). Yesterday I analyzed data on all NBA playoff games from the 2007/2008 to the 2015/2016 season and found that teams losing against the spread by 12.5 points or more tend to rebound nicely in the next game (I will write a detailed article about the topic within the next week). Since OKC was a 7.5-point underdog in Game #1 of the series and lost the game by a 31-point margin (thus losing by 23.5 points against the spread), it reinforces my opinion of this pick.

 

Cheers!

Professor MJ