Potentiel value bet on a NHL Future?
Several bookies have the Pittsburgh Penguins at -105 (decimal 1.95) to win the Stanley Cup, which means this bet has value if its probability is greater than 51.2% (1 / 1.95). Let's see if it appears to be the case.
To me, that's a good bet. Based on the current odds ("series price"), the Pens have at least an 83% chance of winning their series against Ottawa.
Now, if they do get past the Senators, they will face Nashville in the Finals. My best-guess is the series price would be at least Pitt -200 vs Nashville +180. Why? 1) The Pens were around -260 to win the series versus Ottawa before it began. 2) Ottawa and Nashville had similar records during the regular season (Ottawa actually finished with more points, but their goal differential was worse than Nashville's). If you agree with this reasoning, then odds of -200 +180 indicate that Pittsburgh would have at least a 64% chance of beating the Predators.
For Pittsburgh to win the Stanley Cup, they need to eliminate Ottawa then Nashville. Overall probability = 83% * 64% = 53%. Recall earlier how I mentioned we need Pittsburgh to have at least a 51.2% chance of winning the Cup for this bet to be valuable. Well, we are above that figure, and I feel like I was fairly conservative with my numbers.
I'd love to hear your feedback, feel free to let me know if you agree or disagree with my estimates! Have a nice day all!