NFL Week #5 (2018 season)
NFL WEEK #5
BY PROFESSOR MJ
This is just unbelievable. We are off to a very hot 7-1 start to the 2018 NFL season with our picks. A perfect 5-0 last week. Wow!
Only the Texans, as 1-point underdogs, made me sweat when they squandered an 18-point lead, only to win in overtime. The other four picks beat the spread pretty easily (Bears 48-10 over Bucs as 3-point favorites, Pats 38-7 over Dolphins as 6.5-point favorites, Packers 22-0 over Bills as 9.5-point favorites and Jaguars 31-12 over Jets as 7-point favorites).
If you like numbers, you are going to enjoy this section. Last year our picks went 36-23-3. Let’s omit the 3 ties for the sake of this discussion. Combining last year’s record with this year’s, we get to a 43-24 record (a 64.2% winning percentage). That being said, what is the probability of obtaining such level of success by chance?
More specifically, if my method was just as good as flipping a coin (i.e. a “true” winning percentage of 50%), what are the odds of winning at least 43 bets out of 67? The answer: just 1.4%.
In order to be a winning sports investor, you need to win more than one bet out of two. If you are a -105 bettor (1.95 in decimal format), you are going to break even if you win 51.2% of your plays. What is the probability of having won at least 43 bets out of 67 when your “true” winning percentage is 51.2%? The answer turns out to be 2.2%.
It basically says that my method for selecting winning picks has a 97.8% chance of truly being a profitable one (and not just the result of being lucky over that stretch). As a stat guy, this sounds pretty convincing to me!
The Best Sportsbook
As a side note, if you are still a -110 bettor (1.91 in decimal format), what are you waiting for to sign up with a bookie that offers -105 odds? You are essentially throwing money out the window. If a store is selling beer for $30 and the store next door has the exact same product for $28, why not go there?
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System on Totals
Both picks won last week, so this system is now 5-1 this season (225-171-14 over more than a 10-year period prior to this year). It should definitely get your attention.
Week #5 Picks
Can we replicate last week’s success? Let’s find out. My method recommends four (4) picks this week. You can obtain them for just $33 USD by clicking here.
I’m also going to provide a free “lean” (unofficial pick that is considered borderline profitable). I’d take the Redskins +6.5 or +7 in New Orleans in the Monday Nighter. The rest factor is overly in favor of Washington. Not only are they coming off a bye week, but they had played two straight home games prior to that. Meanwhile, Sean Payton’s squad is back home after a couple of road games. Also, the Skins could be looking for revenge after losing 34-31 in overtime in New Orleans last season. But again, proceed with caution; my level of confidence for this one is not super high.
A couple of people have asked me whether I could do a season price. Why not? With 13 weeks left and an average of 3.6 picks per week, that amounts to an expected 46.8 picks remaining through the rest of the regular season. At $10 each, that would be $468. I'll give a 30% discount and make it at $330 USD.
Have a nice one!