NFL Week #5 (2018 season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


This is just unbelievable. We are off to a very hot 7-1 start to the 2018 NFL season with our picks. A perfect 5-0 last week. Wow!

Only the Texans, as 1-point underdogs, made me sweat when they squandered an 18-point lead, only to win in overtime. The other four picks beat the spread pretty easily (Bears 48-10 over Bucs as 3-point favorites, Pats 38-7 over Dolphins as 6.5-point favorites, Packers 22-0 over Bills as 9.5-point favorites and Jaguars 31-12 over Jets as 7-point favorites).

Just Lucky?

If you like numbers, you are going to enjoy this section. Last year our picks went 36-23-3. Let’s omit the 3 ties for the sake of this discussion. Combining last year’s record with this year’s, we get to a 43-24 record (a 64.2% winning percentage). That being said, what is the probability of obtaining such level of success by chance?

More specifically, if my method was just as good as flipping a coin (i.e. a “true” winning percentage of 50%), what are the odds of winning at least 43 bets out of 67? The answer: just 1.4%.

In order to be a winning sports investor, you need to win more than one bet out of two. If you are a -105 bettor (1.95 in decimal format), you are going to break even if you win 51.2% of your plays. What is the probability of having won at least 43 bets out of 67 when your “true” winning percentage is 51.2%? The answer turns out to be 2.2%.

It basically says that my method for selecting winning picks has a 97.8% chance of truly being a profitable one (and not just the result of being lucky over that stretch). As a stat guy, this sounds pretty convincing to me!

The Best Sportsbook

As a side note, if you are still a -110 bettor (1.91 in decimal format), what are you waiting for to sign up with a bookie that offers -105 odds? You are essentially throwing money out the window. If a store is selling beer for $30 and the store next door has the exact same product for $28, why not go there?

My #1 recommendation is that you open an account with Pinnacle. I’ve had an account with them since 1999 or 2000 and my experience with them has been flawless. They are very trustworthy, their lines are the best in the business and customer service is good.

The only drawback is they don’t offer bonuses, but many studies have shown that this is largely compensated by their advantageous lines. This sportsbook is a must for any serious sports investor. Don’t wait any longer and get access to the best odds online. Sign up NOW by clicking the banner below:

System on Totals

Both picks won last week, so this system is now 5-1 this season (225-171-14 over more than a 10-year period prior to this year). It should definitely get your attention.

According to the criteria, you need to take over 45 Vikings-Eagles and over 50 Rams-Seahawks.

Week #5 Picks

Can we replicate last week’s success? Let’s find out. My method recommends four (4) picks this week. You can obtain them for just $33 USD by clicking here.

I’m also going to provide a free “lean” (unofficial pick that is considered borderline profitable). I’d take the Redskins +6.5 or +7 in New Orleans in the Monday Nighter. The rest factor is overly in favor of Washington. Not only are they coming off a bye week, but they had played two straight home games prior to that. Meanwhile, Sean Payton’s squad is back home after a couple of road games. Also, the Skins could be looking for revenge after losing 34-31 in overtime in New Orleans last season. But again, proceed with caution; my level of confidence for this one is not super high.

Get Professor MJ’s four NFL picks for week #5!

A couple of people have asked me whether I could do a season price. Why not? With 13 weeks left and an average of 3.6 picks per week, that amounts to an expected 46.8 picks remaining through the rest of the regular season. At $10 each, that would be $468. I'll give a 30% discount and make it at $330 USD.

Click here to get ALL of my picks for the rest of the 2018 NFL season!

Have a nice one!

Professor MJ