NFL SURVIVOR PICKS (WEEK #15)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Are you still alive in your NFL survivor pool? Yeah, baby!

Which team should you pick in Week 15?

This article has the answer for you!

The survivor picks below are rated in order of preference. I recommend that you choose the highest-rated team from this list that is still available to you.

Let me give you some advice that will hopefully bring you some cash in the near future!

SURVIVOR PICK #1: LOS ANGELES RAMS (vs New York Jets)

If the Rams are still available to you, then this is a gimme. The decision cannot be easier than this; you must pick Los Angeles this week!

Not only are the Rams the largest favorites of the weekend by a good margin, but they won’t be of any use to you for the remainder of the season. Indeed, their last two contests won’t be easy to win: at Seattle and hosting the Cardinals.

Take the Rams in Week 15 if you can. As simple as that.

SURVIVOR PICK #2: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (at Cincinnati Bengals)

I suspect that 99% of you have already taken Pittsburgh this season due to numerous favorable matchups earlier in the year, but I’m still going to mention them here. If you cannot grab the Rams this week, but still have the Steelers at your disposal, go with them.

Pittsburgh’s final two meetings will be at home against the Colts and at the Browns. In both cases, we have a tough matchup so you won’t need the Steelers again in 2020.

SURVIVOR PICK #3: BALTIMORE RAVENS (vs Jacksonville Jaguars)

The Ravens are two touchdown favorites in this meeting. Their level of motivation is much higher considering they are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Jags have nothing to play for (except the #1 draft pick, in which case it is preferable to lose the game).

The only disadvantage to this pick is Baltimore’s future value, which is fairly high. As of now, they are projected to be the second-largest favorite in Week 16 and the fifth-largest favorite in Week 17. In other words, you might wish you can pick them later on.

It really comes down to which teams are still available to you. Here are the teams you might hope to take in Week 16: the Chiefs, the Texans, the Browns and the Saints. Will you be able to pick any of these?

In Week 17, it would be nice if you could grab either the Colts, the Chiefs, the Patriots or the Bucs.

If these squads are not available to you, then you might want to consider saving the Ravens for later, while picking a team further down this list.

SURVIVOR PICK #4: TENNESSEE TITANS (vs Detroit Lions)

The first three picks above were pretty safe selections for this week; they are pretty unlikely to lose. Starting from here, the picks are getting riskier.

The Titans are in the thick of the playoff race, while the Lions are almost dead. Still, I do not see Tennessee as a lock to beat Detroit. They are an inconsistent team capable of beating the best NFL teams, but they are susceptible to losing to weak opponents too.

Also, the Lions have shown some fight since firing their head coach, Matt Patricia. They upset the Bears in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, and kept the game close against the red-hot Packers.

An important factor in this game concerns the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford. He left the game against Green Bay with a rib injury. If he is unable to go, the Lions will need to turn to Chase Daniel, in which case this pick becomes MUCH safer.

Tennessee’s last two games of the season will be at Green Bay and at Houston. They won’t be of any help to you, so taking them this week would be a sound choice, especially if Stafford is out.

SURVIVOR PICK #5: GREEN BAY PACKERS (vs Carolina Panthers)

The Pack are a pretty strong pick this week. They hold a pretty high probability of beating Carolina.

The only knock on this selection is that you might hope to have Green Bay available in the final week of the season in Chicago. It really depends if you’ll have the opportunity to grab one of the following teams (which are projected to be safer than Green Bay in Week 17): Indy, K.C., New England, Tampa Bay or Baltimore.

SURVIVOR PICK #6: ARIZONA CARDINALS (vs Philadelphia Eagles)

The quality of the picks starts to deteriorate quite a bit here.

In this case, Arizona seems like a risky play at home against a desperate Eagles team, who are coming off a nice upset win over the Saints as Jalen Hurts’ first NFL start. We don’t know what to expect from Hurts; he could have a very bad game, but he could also lead his team to victory. I don’t like those types of unknown factors in survivor pools.

Philly’s defense has been playing at a high level recently, and that’s one of my main worries here. However, many players from their secondary got nicked up during last week’s game. It is worth monitoring their situation before making a decision. If the Eagles are down to their 3^rd or 4^th cornerbacks, then going with Arizona this week makes more sense.

Note: the Cards won’t be of any use to you in the final two weeks since they are going to face the 49ers and the Rams.

SURVIVOR PICK #7: TAMPA BAY BUCS (at Atlanta Falcons)

Both the Bucs and the Falcons have been inconsistent this season. They have looked great at times, and bad at others. That’s why I don’t love this selection.

Also, Tampa has two more favorable matchups left this year: at Detroit and hosting the Falcons. In both cases, the Bucs will have a higher probability of winning, so there is not much reason to take them here (unless you have already taken the first six teams listed here).

SURVIVOR PICK #8: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (vs Houston Texans)

Indy has a pretty good shot to win this match, but they hold a lot of value in Week 17. Indeed, the Colts will be hosting the Jaguars and all signs point towards this game being meaningful. As of now, Indianapolis is expected to be the largest favorite in Week 17, so I recommend that you try to save them for later, if possible.

 

You have just three more weeks before possibly cashing some money! Keep up your good work and best of luck in your survivor pool, buddy!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)