NFL Survivor Pool Tips for Week 12 (2020 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Which team should you pick in your NFL survivor pool in Week 12?

This article has the answer!

This is a pivotal week in survivor pools. Why?

If you take a look at the schedule, all remaining weeks have matchups where a team is projected to be favored by more than 10 points. This week, the largest point spread is 8.5. Many participants are likely to get eliminated this week.

Before we get down to business, I just wanted to raise your attention on something that’s highly unusual. So far in the 2020 season, I’ve had just three picks rated 5 stars in my NFL picks against the spread, but I have two this week alone! If interested, keep reading until the end.


The largest favorite this week is the team from the Frozen Tundra. Combined with the fact that the Packers have a relatively low future value, they are the top survivor pick in Week 12.

Green Bay is an 8.5-point favorite this week, whereas the line for next week against Philly is 7. Then, the Pack are not likely to be favored by more than a touchdown when playing at Detroit, at Chicago or at home against the Titans.

The only time where you might hope you have Green Bay still available is Week 15 when hosting the Panthers. However, if you haven’t picked the Rams, the Ravens or the Steelers this year, they are projected to be better alternative since they are facing the Jets, the Jags and the Bengals.

For these reasons, if you have not taken the Packers so far this year, I recommend going with Matt LaFleur’s squad in Week 12.

SURVIVOR PICK #2: CLEVELAND BROWNS (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Let’s say you have already picked the Packers this year. What should you do? I believe the right choice lies between the Browns and the Dolphins.

I ended up ranking the Browns at #2 because of their lower future value. They will either be underdogs or small favorites in all of the remaining games, except in Week 16 at the Jets.

If you take the Dolphins this week instead, you won’t have the option to grab them next week as 10-point favorites over the Bengals.

I also prefer the Browns because they are facing a QB that has not played a down in 2020: Mike Glennon.


After getting upset by the Broncos, Brian Flores’ team gets a chance for redemption against the Jets. They have a good chance to win, but as mentioned above Miami could be useful to you next week.

It depends on which teams you have picked thus far in your survivor pool. Will you really need the Dolphins this week? If the Chiefs are still available to you, they will be the largest favorite next week (13-point favorites at home versus Denver). You could also go with Pittsburgh next week against Washington, but the large majority of survivor pool contestants have already taken them due to prior favorable matchups.

So, if you cannot pick the Packers nor the Browns this week, I’d go with Miami. Or, you could consider my next pick, which is…

SURVIVOR PICK #4: NEW YORK GIANTS (at Cincinnati Bengals)

Based on their schedule, the G-Men could be established as the favorite for the last time in 2020. The only potential exception is Week 17 hosting the Cowboys, but that would be a risky play. In other words, New York has no use in the future so taking them right now wouldn’t be a bad choice.

The knock on them is the risk taken this week. I don’t feel comfortable taking a team favored by less than 7 points in a survivor pool. In this case, the Giants are 6-point favorites.

In summary, I think grabbing the Giants is a possible option, but it’s a bit risky.


The Saints come into this game as 6-point favorites. That’s not a big spread. And playing in Denver’s thin air makes it more difficult for opposing teams. I expect a low-scoring affair where New Orleans will come on top, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Broncos pulled off the upset either.

Taysom Hill will start under center for the second straight week. He did a good job last week against the Falcons, whose defense was significantly weaker than Denver’s. Also, the Broncos showed up well and managed to beat the Dolphins last week.

What is New Orleans’ future value? There appears to be just one game where you might want to pick them in your survivor pool: Week 16 at home against Minnesota. Will it be a cakewalk? I don’t think so.

So, overall, I feel like taking the Saints this week is a tad risky, but at least you won’t need New Orleans later in the year so going with them wouldn’t be a bad decision. But obviously, I prefer the first four picks mentioned earlier.

SURVIVOR PICK #6: LOS ANGELES RAMS (vs San Francisco 49ers)

I just wanted to say a quick word about the Rams. If they are still available to you, don’t take them this week. They are going to host the Jets in Week 15, so you are better off saving them for that week. Don’t take a chance this week against a division rival who is coming off its bye week. I know Nick Mullens has not looked good recently, but the Niners are also getting many players back.


I’ve been rating my NFL picks against the spread on a 1-to-5 scale for three years. Only 10 have received the highest 5-star rating. Those predictions have gone 7-3 (including 2-1 this season).

Amazingly enough, we have a couple of them this Sunday!

You can gain access to those predictions right now, but I’ll be fully transparent with you. After giving away ALL of my NFL picks this year, these two gems are available at a $100 fee. I’m so confident in those bets that I’m willing to make you this great offer:

  • If both picks lose, you get your money back;
  • If one pick loses and the other wins, you’re going to get my next 5-star pick for free, which should occur sometime later this season;
  • If both picks win, everyone’s happy and richer! $$$$$$$$

I don’t recommend that you wait any longer before getting those 2 awesome picks because the lines are likely to move against you. I already placed my bets because I suspect the lines will only get worse as money pours in.

Simply follow this link for those two big whale plays. You don’t want to miss out on this unique opportunity to have two 5-star picks during the same week!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)