NFL Survivor Pool Tips for Week 11 (2020 regular season)
NFL SURVIVOR PICKS (WEEK #11)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Are you still alive in your NFL survivor pool?
If so, this article presents the top picks for Week 11.
Last week, I discussed five teams. The only one that lost, the Ravens, had a clear warning at the very beginning of my write-up: “I actually believe this would be a very bad choice.” I hope you followed my advice!
This week, there are three picks that are much better than the others. Hopefully, you still have one of these teams still available.
SURVIVOR PICK #1: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
This is the top pick in large part due to its point spread being the largest in Week 11 at around 10 points.
However, many of you have possibly already taken the Steelers earlier in the year since they have faced some weak opponents like the Giants, the Cowboys and the Bengals. But if you have not picked them already, I recommend going with Mike Tomlin’s squad.
Pittsburgh’s future value is not that great, so it’s not worth saving them for later use. Indeed, their lone remaining game where they are projected to be big favorites is in Week 13 where they’ll be playing Washington. If you take a closer look at the league’s schedule, Week 13 promises to have 4-5 teams favored by 10 points or more, so you’ll have plenty of options then.
Pittsburgh’s other opponents include the Ravens, the Bills, the Colts and the Browns. None of them is easy. You could grab the Steelers in Week 15 at Cincinnati, but they won’t be favored by more than a touchdown considering the spread was 7 at home last week against Burrow’s team.
SURVIVOR PICK #2: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (vs New York Jets)
If you don’t pick the Chargers this week, you probably won’t take them at all in 2020. This is probably your only chance to go with Los Angeles.
Their last six games of the season are as follows: at Bills, vs Patriots, vs Falcons, at Raiders, vs Broncos and at Chiefs. The only possibility seems to be in Week 16 facing Denver. That would be a risky play. The Chargers might be 5-point favorites in this game, whereas their line this week is 8.5.
In my picks against the spread this week, I took the Jets. In other words, I expect this game to be tight. Still, considering this week’s spread and their lack of future value, the Chargers seem to be the smartest pick if you have already taken the Steelers this season.
SURVIVOR PICK #3: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (vs Dallas Cowboys)
The quality of this pick is pretty close to the Chargers.
Minnesota’s probability of getting the victory this week is only slightly lower than the Chargers’, and their future value is also relatively low.
You could consider grabbing the Vikings in Week 13 against Jacksonville, but as mentioned earlier there are many other good alternatives on that week.
You might also want to take Minnesota next week against Carolina, or hosting the Bears in Week 15. However, in both cases the line is projected to be much smaller than 7 points, so I find it pretty risky.
Since you are unlikely to need the Vikings later in the year, picking them this week wouldn’t be a bad choice.
SURVIVOR PICK #4: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (at Las Vegas Raiders)
I do not like taking a team in a survivor pool that’s favored by less than a touchdown. That’s why the last two picks are not great selections, in my opinion.
Kansas City is one of my picks against the spread this week, which means I expect them to win by a comfortable margin. Still, we’re talking about a matchup against a team with a 6-3 record.
Moreover, the Chiefs hold good future value since they have three more games where they should be favored by more than 10 points: against the Broncos, the Falcons and the Chargers, all at Arrowhead Stadium. So why would you pick Kansas City this week (unless you have already picked the first three teams listed above, which is highly unlikely)?
SURVIVOR PICK #5: BALTIMORE RAVENS (vs Tennessee Titans)
I like the Titans to beat the spread this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win the game outright. That’s just my personal opinion, though.
One thing is for certain: Baltimore is more likely to have a much bigger spread in four of their remaining games: vs Dallas, vs Jacksonville, vs New York Giants and at the Bengals.
Again, there is no reason to go with Baltimore in Week 11.
A big thank you for reading, I’ll be back with more advice next week!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)