NFL Super Bowl LVI Proposition Bets (Rams vs Bengals - 2021 regular season)

SUPER BOWL PROP BETS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

I often mention that the most profitable bets of the year are the Super Bowl prop bets.

With such a high number of bets offered, there are always lines that are not very accurate. Astute gamblers can then take advantage of them.

Here is how we did since I started sharing those plays with the world:

  • Last year (Bucs vs Chiefs): 24-10 record
  • The year before (Chiefs vs 49ers): 9-2 record

 

As you will see below, this year's Super Bowl between the Bengals and the Rams generated a 21-11 record.

Therefore, over the past three Super Bowls, we have crushed it in a big way via an astounding 53-23 record.

It doesn't get any better than this!

 

Without further ado, here are the bets I shared for Super Bowl LVI.

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #1 (WIN)

 

Cincinnati Bengals to score touchdown in the first quarter? NO @ -150 odds (or 1.667 in decimal) with William Hill Canada


Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -165 (or 1.606 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -175
  • Bet365: -190
  • 10Bet: -215
  • BetOnline: -190

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #2 (WIN)

 

Cincinnati Bengals over 1.5 field goals made (or, equivalently, Evan McPherson over 1.5 FGs made) @ +100 odds (or 2.0 in decimal) with Bet365


Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.6%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -110 (or 1.91 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • William Hill Canada: -150
  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: -140
  • Sports Interaction: -120

  

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #3 (WIN)

 

Logan Wilson over 8.5 tackles+assists @ +124 odds (or 2.24 in decimal) with Bookmaker. Please note that right now few sportsbooks have a line on this defensive player. But more bookies will probably release a line later.


Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.6%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +110 (or 2.10 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • William Hill Canada: -138 (!!! what a difference!!!)
  • Unibet/Sugar House/Barstool/BetRivers : +101

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #4 (WIN)

 

Los Angeles Rams to score in every quarter? YES @ +195 odds (or 2.95 in decimal) with Bet365 (under "Team Props")


Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +180 (or 2.80 in decimal). Based on this criterion, BetOnline also has a profitable line with +185.

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Sports Interaction: +140
  • William Hill Canada: +150
  • Bookmaker: +153
  • FanDuel: +140

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #5 (WIN)

 

Team with most 1st downs: Los Angeles Rams @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with DraftKings (under "Team Props")

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -135 (or 1.74 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • William Hill Canada: -150
  • Bookmaker: -175

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #6 (LOSS)

 

Both teams to score at least 2 TDs in the game: NO @ +205 odds (or 3.05 in decimal) with William Hill Canada (under "Scoring/Game Stats")

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +12.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +170 (or 2.70 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: +130
  • DraftKings: +135

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #7 (LOSS)

 

Von Miller (LAR) over 4.5 tackles+assists @ +120 odds (or 2.20 in decimal) with DraftKings (under "D/ST Props")

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.4%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +105 (or 2.05 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: -115
  • Bet365: -115
  • 10Bet: -115
  • William Hill Canada: -120
  • William Hill USA (Caesars): -115
  • FanDuel: -114

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #8 (WIN)

 

Los Angeles Rams under 1.5 field goals made @ +130 odds (or 2.30 in decimal) with 10Bet sportsbook, or +125 odds (or 2.25 in decimal) with DraftKings sportsbook.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +120 (or 2.20 in decimal).

 

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: +100
  • Bet365: -105
  • William Hill Canada: -110
  • William Hill USA (Caesars): -105

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #9 (LOSS)

 

Over 1.5 FGs made in 1st half @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with 10Bet sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -125 (or 1.80 in decimal). Based on this criterion, Bet365 also has a profitable line with -115.

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle -142
  • Bookmaker: -143
  • BetOnline: -130
  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: -135

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #10 (WIN)

 

Over 3.5 punts Cincinnati Bengals (or, equivalently, Kevin Huber) @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with Sports Interaction sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.8%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -140 (or 1.714 in decimal). Based on this criterion, DraftKings also has a profitable line with -135.

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle -177
  • BetOnline: -160 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #11 (WIN)

 

Shortest TD under 1.5 yards @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with BetMGM, bwin, Borgota and Bet365 sportsbooks


Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.0%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -130 (or 1.77 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle -158
  • Bookmaker: -150
  • William Hill Canada: -160

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #12 (WIN)

 

Von Miller (LAR) to record a sack? YES @ -150 odds (or 1.667 in decimal) with DraftKings sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +1.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -155 (or 1.645 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -185
  • Bookmaker: -172
  • William Hill Canada: -180
  • Caesars (William Hill USA): -180

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #13 (LOSS)

 

Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback? NO @ +115 odds (or 2.15 in decimal) with bwin sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +105 (or 2.05 in decimal), which makes the line with DraftKings sportsbook also acceptable at +110

  

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #14 (WIN)

 

Over 6.5 punts @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with Sports Interaction sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.0%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -140 (or 1.714 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -175
  • William Hill Canada and William Hill USA: -150
  • FanDuel: -152
  • DraftKings: -145

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #15 (WIN)

 

Team to score the longest FG: Los Angeles Rams @ +115 odds (or 2.15 in decimal) with BetOnline sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +100 (or 2.0 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -125
  • Bookmaker: -154
  • William Hill Canada: -115
  • Sports Interaction: -115
  • Caesars / William Hill USA: -115
  • Betway: -134

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #16 (LOSS)

 

Team to score the longest TD: Los Angeles Rams @ -120 odds (or 1.833 in decimal), both with William Hill Canada and Caesars (William Hill USA) sportsbooks


Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -128 (or 1.78 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -150
  • Bookmaker: -152
  • Sports Interaction: -150
  • Betway: -154
  • Betonline: -145
  • DraftKings: -160

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #17 (LOSS)

 

Over 9.5 accepted penalties @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with Betonline sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.6%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -130 (or 1.77 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -155
  • Bet365: over 10.5 penalties at -135 odds
  • Betway: over 10.5 penalties at -138 odds

  

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #18 (PUSH)

 

Result of first coach's challenge: Upheld (or, equivalently, play stands) @ +100 odds (or 2.0 in decimal) with Sports Interaction sportsbook


Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -113 (or 1.885 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -135
  • Betonline: -125

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #19 (LOSS)

 

Sony Michel (LAR) over 16.5 rushing yards @ -120 odds (or 1.8333 in decimal) with 10Bet sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -135 (or 1.74 in decimal). DraftKings has -125 odds, so it is also a good bet. Caesars/William Hill USA has a borderline acceptable line with -135.

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -150
  • Bookmaker: -148
  • William Hill Canada: -150
  • Unibet / BetRivers / Sugar House / Barstool: Line of 18.5 rushing yards

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #20 (LOSS)

 

Under 6.5 Los Angeles Rams players to make a reception @ +110 odds (or 2.10 in decimal) with Unibet / Sugar House / BetRivers / Barstool sportsbooks

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.0%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +100 (or 2.00 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -131
  • Betonline: -115
  • William Hill Canada: -120

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #21 (WIN)

 

Cam Akers (LAR) under 16.5 rushing attempts @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with Sports Interaction and 10Bet sportsbooks, and also -112 odds (or 1.89 in decimal) with Betway

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -117 (or 1.855 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -137
  • FanDuel: -144
  • Unibet/BetRivers/Sugar House/Barstool: -130

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #22 (PUSH)

 

This one is special because you may end up betting any of the two sides (read in full before rushing to place a bet!!!).

 

When tracking my win-loss record after the game, this one won't count since both sides have a profitable bet on the market right now. It boils down to which sportsbooks you have, and what the lines are.

 

 

Matt Gay (LAR) over 7.5 kicking points @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook


or


Matt Gay (LAR) under 7.5 kicking points @ +133 odds (or 2.33 in decimal) with Bookmaker sportsbook

Minimum acceptable odds on the over: -125 (or 1.80 in decimal).

Minimum acceptable odds on the under: +125 (or 2.25 in decimal).

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #23 (WIN)

 

Los Angeles Rams over 3.5 sacks @ +105 odds (or 2.05 in decimal) with DraftKings sportsbook (under "D/ST Props")

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.4%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -110 (or 1.91 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -143
  • Betonline: -140
  • Unibet / BetRivers / Sugar House / Barstool: -118

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #24 (WIN)

 

Joe Burrow (CIN) under 1.5 TD passes @ +150 odds (or 2.50 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook (under "Player Props")

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +140 (or 2.40 in decimal). Based on this criterion, DraftKings has a good line too at +145, while Caesars / William Hill USA is borderline acceptable at +140.

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: +113
  • Pinnacle: +120
  • Unibet / BetRivers / Sugar House / Barstool: +125
  • FanDuel: +120
  • BetMGM / bwin / Borgota: +120

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #25 (LOSS)

 

Under 6.5 Cincinnati Bengals players to make a reception @ +100 odds (or 2.00 in decimal) with Betway, Unibet / Sugar House / BetRivers / Barstool sportsbooks

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.8%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -108 (or 1.93 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -126
  • Bookmaker: -112
  • Betonline: -150
  • Sports Interaction: -160

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #26 (WIN)

 

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) over 3.5 rushing yards @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -122 (or 1.82 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: Over 2.5 rushing yards at -158 odds
  • William Hill Canada: -138
  • Sports Interaction: -130

  

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #27 (LOSS)

 

Joe Burrow (CIN) over 2.5 rushing attempts @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with Bet365, 10Bet, BetMGM, bwin and Borgota sportsbooks

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.1%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -123 (or 1.81 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -136
  • Bookmaker: -137

(they are the two most accurate sportsbooks on the planet)

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #28 (WIN)

 

Highest scoring quarter under 21.5 points @ -130 odds (or 1.77 in decimal) with Caesars (William Hill USA) and William Hill Canada sportsbooks

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -137 (or 1.73 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -157
  • Bookmaker: -147
  • 10Bet: -145
  • DraftKings: -150

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #29 (WIN)

 

Over 5.5 Los Angeles Rams 3rd down conversions @ -130 odds (or 1.77 in decimal) with DraftKings sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -140 (or 1.714 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -141
  • Bookmaker: -162
  • Betonline: -175

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #30 (WIN)

 

Team with last possession of the game: Los Angeles Rams @ -130 odds (or 1.77 in decimal) with Caesars (William Hill USA) sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.0%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -143 (or 1.70 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -162
  • Bookmaker: -157

(the two most accurate sportsbooks on the planet)

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #31 (LOSS)

 

Team to gain most rushing yards: Los Angeles Rams @ -150 odds (or 1.667 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -163 (or 1.613 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -180
  • Bookmaker: -186
  • Caesars (William Hill USA): -175

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #32 (WIN)

 

Cincinnati Bengals over 1.5 sacks @ -150 odds (or 1.667 in decimal) with DraftKings, William Hill Canada and Caesars (William Hill USA) sportsbooks

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.8%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -161 (or 1.62 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -191
  • Pinnacle: -172
  • Unibet / BetRivers / Sugar House / Barstool: -177

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #33 (WIN)

 

Will the game ever be tied again after 0-0? NO @ +100 odds (or 2.00 in decimal) with DraftKings sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -111 (or 1.90 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -133
  • Caesars: -130
  • Unibet / BetRivers / Sugar House / Barstool: -112

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #34 (WIN)

 

Team to use first timeout: Los Angeles Rams @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with ComeOn and 10Bet sportsbooks

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.4%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -132 (or 1.76 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -142
  • Caesars: -140
  • Pinnacle: -144

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)