SUPER BOWL PROP BETS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Last year I made $8,330 USD when I went to Vegas to hammer Super Bowl proposition bets.

Due to COVID-19, I couldn't travel this year so I turned to online sportsbooks instead.

I spent around 50 hours looking for bargains across 15-20 bookies using my special Excel spreadsheet.

I ended up finding 36 good bets that I shared with those of you who bought my "Super Bowl Prop Bets" package:

• RECORD: 24-10 (bets #11 and #30 shown below had good value on both sides, so neither a win or a loss)
• PROFIT: +18.32 units
• What does that mean? If you would have bet $100 on each bet, you would have earned $100 * 18.32 = $1,832 in net profit!

Too bad I had an appendicitis that prevented me from looking for more bets on Saturday and Sunday. Pretty sure I would have found at least 15 more.

How did I know a specific bet was a good value wager? I strongly encourage you to read my article about Value Betting here.

Here are the 36 bets we made for Super Bowl LV.

Super Bowl Prop Bet #1 (WIN)

DeMarcus Robinson (KC) under 1.5 reception @ +105 odds (or 2.05 in decimal) with 10Bet

Estimated ROI with those odds: +9.2%

Minimum acceptable odds: -110 (or 1.91 in decimal)

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bet365: -140
• BetOnline: -130
• William Hill Canada: -130
• bwin: -135
• Bet99: -139

Super Bowl Prop Bet #2 (WIN)

Chris Jones (KC) over 2.5 tackles+assists @ +130 odds (or 2.30 in decimal) with 10Bet.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +9.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: +115 (or 2.15 in decimal)

William Hill Canada is close to meeting this criterion with +110 odds.

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bet365: -120
• Bookmaker.eu: -115
• Sports Interaction: -120
• DraftKings: -121
• 5Dimes: +100

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #3 (WIN)

Shortest TD scored under 1.5 yards @ -138 odds (or 1.725 in decimal) with Bet365.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.7%

Minimum acceptable odds: -150 (or 1.667 in decimal)

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• 10Bet: -175
• Bookmaker.eu: -179
• William Hill Canada: -170
• DraftKings: -215
• 5Dimes: -170

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #4 (LOSS)

Bucs to score in every quarter @ +240 odds (or 3.40 in decimal) with Bet365.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: +220 (or 3.20 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bookmaker.eu: +179
• William Hill Canada: +190
• 10Bet: +230
• DraftKings: +155
• 5Dimes: +210
• BetOnline: +195
• Sports Interaction: +180

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #5 (WIN)

Bucs to score the longest touchdown @ +130 odds (or 2.30 in decimal) with William Hill Canada.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.7%

Minimum acceptable odds: +120 (or 2.20 in decimal). 

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bookmaker.eu: -106
• Bet365: +100
• 10Bet: +105
• DraftKings: +115
• FanDuel: +105
• BetOnline: +100

 

 

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #6 (LOSS)

Chiefs under 1.5 FGs made @ +120 odds (or 2.20 in decimal) with BetOnline.ag.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: +110 (or 2.10 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• bwin: -105
• Bet365: -110
• 10Bet: -110
• 5Dimes: -105
• Bodog/Bovada: +100
• William Hill Canada: -105

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #7 (LOSS)

No field goal made in 1st quarter @ +110 odds (or 2.10 in decimal) with William Hill Canada.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: +100 (or 2.00 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• bwin: -110
• Bet365: -138
• 10Bet: -130
• 5Dimes: -135
• Bodog/Bovada: -130
• Bookmaker: -116

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #8 (WIN)

Will there be an onside kick attempt? NO @ -175 odds (or 1.5714 in decimal) with Bodog / Bovada.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.3%

Minimum acceptable odds: +-210 (or 1.48 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• BetOnline: -240
• 10Bet: -250
• Bookmaker: -296

The screenshot below shows an even better line at -165, but it has now changed to -175 (as mentioned above).

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #9 (WIN)

Will there be a score in the first 5 minutes? NO @ -120 odds (or 1.833 in decimal) with Bet365. Equivalent: "Score on or after 5:00 elapsed."

Another bookie with acceptable odds: 10Bet, which currently has -125 (or 1.80 in decimal).

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.3%

Minimum acceptable odds: -135 (or 1.74 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• FanDuel: -180
• 5Dimes: -165
• William Hill Canada: -135
• Bookmaker: -175

  

Super Bowl Prop Bet #10 (LOSS)

Both teams to have the lead in the 4th quarter? YES @ +300 odds (or 4.00 in decimal) with FanDuel.

NOTE: Many sportsbooks present it as "Will there be a lead change in the 4th quarter?".

Estimated ROI with those odds: +12.7%

Minimum acceptable odds: +255 (or 3.55 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• William Hill Canada: +180
• DraftKings: +220
• 5Dimes: +205
• Bodog/Bovada: +190

  

Super Bowl Prop Bet #11

This one is very special... It's a 2-for-1 because both sides provide value!

Will either team score 3 unanswered times? NO @ +225 odds (or 3.25 in decimal) with Bet365.

Will either team score 3 unanswered times? YES @ -175 odds (or 1.5714 in decimal) with William Hill Canada.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +10.2% on "NO", +6.8% on "YES".

Minimum acceptable odds: +195 (or 2.95 in decimal) on "NO", -195 (or 1.513 in decimal) on "YES".

Odds from other online sportsbooks:

• Pinnacle: YES -225, NO +185
• Bookmaker: YES -223, NO +165
• BetOnline: YES -233, NO +175
• bwin: YES -250, NO +175
• 10Bet: YES -250, NO +175
• Bodog/Bovada: YES -230, NO +170
• FanDuel: YES -260, NO +200
• 5Dimes: YES -225, NO +185

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #12 (WIN)

Cameron Brate under 3.5 receptions @ -112 odds (or 1.89 in decimal) with DraftKings.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +10.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: -137 (or 1.73 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Sports Interaction: -175
• Bookmaker: -161

Many bookies have a line of 2.5 receptions, so we have few comparisons, but I trust Bookmaker's accurate odds and also a website that projects player stats (they expect him to catch 2.8 passes, which is well below 3.5).

  

Super Bowl Prop Bet #13 (WIN)

Will a roughing the passer penalty be called? YES @ +175 odds (or 2.75 in decimal) with FanDuel.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: +160 (or 2.60 in decimal).

Odds from other online sportsbooks (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: +150
• DraftKings: +125
• 5Dimes: +150

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #14 (WIN)

Under 16.5 players to have a pass reception @ -140 odds (or 1.714 in decimal) with 10Bet.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: -160 (or 1.625 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• DraftKings: Under 15.5 at -190 odds (big difference!!!)

Number of players with a pass reception in the past six Super Bowls: 15, 13, 16, 14, 15 and 13.

In the playoffs, the Bucs and Chiefs have had the following number of players with a pass reception: 7, 7, 7, 9, 8.

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #15 (WIN)

Darrel Williams under 9.5 rushing attempts @ -160 odds (or 1.625 in decimal) with Sports Interaction. I just placed my bet at -155 odds, and they quickly moved it to -160 afterwards.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +8.2%

Minimum acceptable odds: -183 (or 1.546 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• bwin: -350
• Bookmaker: under 10.5 at -329
• 10Bet: under 8.5 at -160
• DraftKings: under 8.5 at -134

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #16 (WIN)

Ryan Succop under 8.0 kicking points @ +100 odds (or 2.00 in decimal) with 10Bet.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.0%

Minimum acceptable odds: -110 (or 1.91 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• BetOnline: -130
• Sports Interaction: -135
• Many sportsbooks are torn whether the over or the under should be favorite at 7.5 points, so clearly under 8 should be favored.

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #17 (LOSS)

Will a FG be score in the 1st half? NO @ +500 odds (or 6.00 in decimal) with bwin.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +13.2%

Minimum acceptable odds: +430 (or 5.30 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bet365: +333
• Bodog/Bovada: +330
• 5Dimes: +345

What's funny about this one is bwin is not even consistent with its own lines! As you will see below, we are betting NO at +500 odds, but they also have "over 0.5 FG in 1st half @ -500 odds" and "under 0.5 FG in 1st half @ +325 odds".

In other words, they have the same market twice, but priced differently. The soft line is the +500 one.

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #18 (WIN)

Daniel Sorensen over 5.5 tackles+assists @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with 10Bet.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.0%

Minimum acceptable odds: -131 (or 1.763 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bet365: -160
• BetOnline: -149
• William Hill Canada: -145
• Sports Interaction: -165
• bwin: -150
• DraftKings: -159

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #19 (LOSS)

Scotty Miller over 14.5 receiving yards @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with bwin.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +11.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: -138 (or 1.725 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

Pinnacle is known to have super accurate odds, and they have over 20.5 yards at -129 odds versus under 20.5 yards at +108 odds.

BetOnline, Sports Interaction, 10Bet, DraftKings and 5Dimes all have a line of about 20-21 receiving yards.

If you don't have an account with bwin, other good possibilities are:

• William Hill Canada over 14.5 yards at -115 odds
• Bet365 over 14.5 yards at -120 odds

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #20 (WIN)

Sean Murphy-Bunting over 4.5 tackles+assists @ +110 odds (or 2.10 in decimal) with FanDuel.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: -101 (or 1.99 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -125
• Bet365: -130
• Bookmaker: -130
• William Hill Canada: -115
• bwin: -120
• 10Bet: -115
• DraftKings: -108
• 5Dimes: -115

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #21 (LOSS)

National Anthem under 121.0 seconds @ -135 odds (or 1.74 in decimal) with Sports Interaction.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +13.0%

Minimum acceptable odds: -170 (or 1.59 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• 5Dimes: Under 120.0 seconds at -190
• Bookmaker: Under 120.5 at -185

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #22 (LOSS)

Will a FG made in the 3rd quarter? NO @ +115 odds (or 2.15 in decimal) with William Hill Canada.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +9.7%

Minimum acceptable odds: -104 (or 1.96 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -113
• Bookmaker: -115
• 5Dimes: -115

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #23 (WIN)

Patrick Mahomes over 41.5 passing attempts @ +115 odds (or 2.15 in decimal) with bwin.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +10.6%

Minimum acceptable odds: -106 (or 1.94 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -127
• Bookmaker: -129
• Sports Interaction: -125
• 10Bet: -125
• 5Dimes: -110

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #24 (WIN)

Patrick Mahomes longest completion under 39.5 yards @ +134 odds (or 2.34 in decimal) with Bookmaker

Estimated ROI with those odds: +8.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: +115 (or 2.15 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: +111
• Bet365: +100
• William Hill Canada: -115
• Sports Interaction: -110
• bwin: -105
• Bet99: +100
• 10Bet: -110
• 5Dimes: +115

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #25 (WIN)

Patrick Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with bwin.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +12.0%

Minimum acceptable odds: -133 (or 1.75 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -184
• Sports Interaction: -140
• DraftKings: -137
• Bookmaker: over 18.5 yards at -195

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #26 (WIN)

Distance of longest penalty over 15.5 yards @ -140 odds (or 1.714 in decimal) with FanDuel.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.0%

Minimum acceptable odds: -153 (or 1.65 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -170 (they are the most reliable sportsbook with accurate odds)
• William Hill Canada has a line of 19.5 yards
• 10Bet has a line of 18.5 yards

Super Bowl Prop Bet #27 (WIN)

Result of first coach's challenge: Overturned @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with FanDuel.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.7%

Minimum acceptable odds: -115 (or 1.87 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• William Hill Canada: -140
• 10Bet: -125
• Bodog/Bovada: -135
• DraftKings: -112
• Betway: -154

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #28 (LOSS)

Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? YES @ -223 odds (or 1.4484 in decimal) with Betway.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +12.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: -270 (or 1.37 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -310
• Bookmaker: -340
• William Hill Canada: -280
• 10Bet: -330
• FanDuel: -310
• DraftKings: -305
• 5Dimes: -325

Super Bowl Prop Bet #29 (WIN)

Longest penalty over 11.5 yards @ -118 odds (or 1.847 in decimal) with Betway.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +25.9%

Minimum acceptable odds: -200 (or 1.50 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: over 15.5 yards at -170
• FanDuel: over 15.5 yards at -140
• William Hill Canada: over 19.5 at -110

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #30

Much like prop bet #11, we have another 2-for-1 value bet here.

Will a 2 point conversion be attempted? YES @ +115 odds (or 2.15 in decimal) with 10Bet.

Will a 2 point conversion be attempted? NO @ +110 odds (or 2.10 in decimal) with FanDuel.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.8% on "YES", +6.7% on "NO".

Minimum acceptable odds: +103 (or 2.03 in decimal) on "YES", -103 (or 1.97 in decimal) on "NO".

Odds from other online sportsbooks:

• Pinnacle: YES -101, NO -117
• Bookmaker: YES -113, NO -113
• Heritage: YES +110, NO -125
• 5Dimes: YES +110, NO -130

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #31 (WIN)

L'Jarius Sneed under 3.5 tackles+assists @ +160 odds (or 2.60 in decimal) with 5Dimes

Estimated ROI with those odds: +14.1%

Minimum acceptable odds: +128 (or 2.28 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• BetOnline: +110
• William Hill Canada: +105
• bwin: +115
• FanDuel: +115
• Heritage: +130

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #32 (WIN)

Any quarter to be scoreless? YES @ +550 odds (or 6.50 in decimal) with FanDuel. Another good alternative: DraftKings @ +540 odds.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +21.6%

Minimum acceptable odds: +434 (or 5.34 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: +412
• Bookmaker: +371
• BetOnline: +400
• Sports Interaction: +275
• 10Bet: +400
• Heritage: +340

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #33 (WIN)

Either team to miss and extra point attempt? NO @ -225 odds (or 1.444 in decimal) with DraftKings (FOR YOUR INFORMATION, 888SPORT / CASUMO / MR GREEN HAS THE EXACT SAME LINES AS DRAFTKINGS ON ALL PROP BETS)

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.8%

Minimum acceptable odds: -238 (or 1.42 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle: -281
• William Hill Canada: -270
• 10Bet: -275
• 5Dimes: -300
• Betway: -334
• Heritage: -300

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #34 (WIN)

Byron Pringle under 12.5 receiving yards @ -120 odds (or 1.833 in decimal) with 10Bet.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +12.0%

Minimum acceptable odds: -150 (or 1.667 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bookmaker under 10.5 yards at -141 odds
• 5Dimes under 10.5 yards at -145 odds
• Heritage under 10.5 yards at -145 odds
• Many sportsbooks with a line of 7.5 or 8.5 yards

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #35 (LOSS)

Under 10.5 penalties accepted @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with Bet365 and Betway.

Estimated ROI with those odds: +12.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: -157 (or 1.637 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Pinnacle under 10.0 penalties at -144 odds (so under 10.5 penalties would be at least -165!)
• Bookmaker under 10.0 penalties at -167 odds (so under 10.5 penalties would be at least -190!)
• Intertops: -140

 

Super Bowl Prop Bet #36 (WIN)

Total points scored in highest scoring quarter under 21.0 @ +125 odds (or 2.25 in decimal) with Intertops (they generally have sharp lines, but not here!!!)

Estimated ROI with those odds: +14.5%

Minimum acceptable odds: -104 (or 1.96 in decimal).

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

• Bookmaker: -110
• 5Dimes: -115
• Heritage: -120

 

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Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)