NFL Player Props Week #7 (2019 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Great news!

I am going to start sharing my picks on NFL player props!

How are the picks made?

They are based on a mix of two things:

  • Player projections made by reliable websites (I am a member of some paid sites who provide great info about the NFL)
  • My own judgment

So basically, I compare the lines posted by bookies with the player projections I obtain from paid websites.

If there is a fairly big difference between the two, and the pick also makes sense to me, I am betting it!

IMPORTANT REMARK: the odds matter a lot! I do not recommend betting those player props if your bookie has odds that differ quite a bit from those stated below.

For example, if I bet at +140 and your bookie offers the same prop at +115, stay away!

Without further ado, here are the plays I made with Pinnacle at 8 PM Eastern Time on Friday October 18:

PICK #1: Devonta Freeman over 3.5 receptions (at +140 or 2.40) (LOSS)

PICK #2: Brandin Cooks under 4.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93) (WIN)

PICK #3: Leonard Fournette over 4.5 receptions (at +122 or 2.22) (LOSS)

PICK #4: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +131 or 2.31) (WIN)

PICK #5: Case Keenum under 213.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86) (WIN)

PICK #6: Jason Sanders under 6.5 kicking points (at -105 or 1.95) (WIN)

PICK #7: Julio Jones under 5.5 receptions (at +121 or 2.21) (LOSS)

PICK #8: Matt Ryan to throw an interception (at -107 or 1.93) (WIN)



We went 5-3 on the plays above. I've got 4 good ones for the Monday Nighters between the Pats and the Jets:

PICK #9: Demaryius Thomas over 3.5 receptions (at +115 or 2.15) (LOSS)

PICK #10: Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards (at -124 or 1.81) (WIN)

PICK #11: Jakobi Meyers under 2.5 receptions (at +110 or 2.10) (LOSS)

PICK #12: James White under 5.5 receptions (at -110 or 1.91) (LOSS)


I'll keep track of the record in the following weeks.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)