NFL Player Prop Bet Pick for Week #4 (2023 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Written September 29th, 2023 at 2 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)


This post will present a very good NFL proposition bet for Week 4 to you. It concerns the Minnesota Vikings versus Carolina Panthers game that will take place at 1 pm Eastern Time on Sunday October 1st. Are you ready for this?



My top NFL prop bet for Week 4 is Adam Thielen from the Carolina Panthers to record over 4.5 receptions. I placed my own bet at +105 odds with Bet365, while you may have to settle for odds between -120 and +105 depending on your bookies.

To me, this is a great value wager. First of all, Thielen spent the first nine years of his career with the Vikings, so obviously he will be extra motivated for this game. Knowing this, I’m sure Bryce Young will feed him the ball often this weekend.

Even from a numbers’ perspective, this is a good bet to make, in my humble opinion. In the first game of the season, he only caught two balls, but he has crushed it the past two weeks with 7 and 11 receptions.

The Minnesota-Carolina game features the 4th-highest total of the week. Minnesota can put many points on the board, so the Panthers will have to try to keep up with them by throwing as well.

The two sites I trust the most when it comes to player projections are and They are expecting Thielen to grab 5.1 and 5.0 passes this weekend, respectively. So, in both cases, they seem to like the over as well.

The icing on the cake is my own mathematical model. Based on my numbers, Thielen holds a 57.3% chance of going over 4.5 receptions, which means the fair odds are -134. If you find any sportsbook with a line that is better than -134, that is a good bet, according to my model. If you are more familiar with decimal odds, that is the same as 1.75 by the way.


If you are interested to access all of my NFL player prop bets, I share an average of 7 such picks per week at You can get them by selecting my “American Football” package, which also includes sides and totals on the NFL and college football. You will get a great bang for your buck I promise!

Simply go to to grab this exclusive betting package, have a great weekend my friend!


Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)