NFL PICKS (WILD CARD ROUND - SUNDAY & MONDAY GAMES)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Written Tuesday January 10^th, 2023 at 10 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

 

This is part 2 of my NFL picks for the Wild Card Round! In part number one, I presented my betting tips for the two games to be played on Saturday, while in this article I will discuss the last four Wild Card games.

Before I do so, let me take a few minutes to recap how I did with my picks on NFL win totals before the 2022 season began. There were five bets that I absolutely loved, and those plays generated a nice 3-1-1 record! Here are the details:

We wrapped up the 2022 NFL season with a 48-42-2 record against the spread (ATS) on sides and totals, a 53.3% winning percentage. As far as prop bets are concerned, we obtained a positive 59-54 record.

All of those plays were shared to my members on Patreon (only a certain fraction were free picks on YouTube or on this website). We have not had a losing NFL season since I started sharing my own bets with the world back in 2017.

Let’s move on to the picks for the final four Wild Card games for the upcoming weekend! Enjoy this post my friend!

 

WILD CARD GAME #3: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-10.5) (TOTAL 44.5)

I made this prediction on Tuesday morning, and at that time the latest news regarding Tua Tagovailoa was that he has not been cleared for any football activities yet. That being said, players in concussion protocol don’t need to clear protocol to return to the field in some capacity, so this piece of news suggests he will have a hard time suiting up on Sunday. I don’t believe he will be under center for this game, and even if he does the quality of his play had dropped significantly as of late. Indeed, since Week 13 he has thrown 6 TD passes versus 5 interceptions.

The next man up would be Teddy Bridgewater. Having a dislocated finger on your throwing hand is far from ideal when you are a quarterback in the NFL, and Bridgewater has not been great when he stepped on the field this season (as evidenced by his 4 TDs versus 4 picks this season).

The third QB is rookie Skylar Thompson, who has looked awful. Plain and simple.

To make matters worse, even Miami’s supporting cast is hurting. The Dolphins might have the best WR duo in the league, but Tyreek Hill has been going in and out of games recently because he is battling an ankle injury. As for Jaylen Waddle, he suffered a leg injury on the last drive of the Jets game, and he was seen limping off the field.

When the Dolphins faced the Bills in Week 15, running back Raheem Mostert looked great by racking up 136 yards on the ground on just 17 carries. But the bad news is Mostert broke a thumb against New York last week, and his status is very much in doubt.

The icing on the cake is the weather. Since 2017, Miami holds an 0-8 record in games where the temperature is below 40 degrees, which is exactly what is expected this Sunday in Orchard Park, New York.

The Bills were 7-1 at home this season, and Josh Allen averaged 352 passing yards with 7 TDs and 0 interception in his two meetings with Miami this year.

The Dolphins had the seventh-best defense against the run in terms of the EPA statistic, but they finished in 26^th place defending the pass. That is a great fit for Buffalo, who prefers to throw the ball.

In summary, there are tons of arguments backing Buffalo, which is why I’m betting the Bills laying 10.5 points. The line might even go to 14 points if Skylar Thompson is confirmed as the starting QB for Miami.

Pick: Bills -10.5

 

WILD CARD GAME #4: NEW YORK GIANTS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) (TOTAL 48.5)

This is just the fourth NFL playoff game ever that involves two teams whose point differential was NEGATIVE during the regular season. Can you believe that the 13-4 Vikings finished with a -3 point differential this season? That’s pretty unbelievable. As for the Giants they finished -6.

I had trouble making a pick in this game, but if forced to bet I’d go with Minnesota laying three points. Granted, the Giants will be looking to avenge a 27-24 defeat suffered in Week 16, a game in which they dominated total yardage 445 to 353.

However, New York will be on the road for the fourth time over the past five. That involved a lot of traveling, which isn’t good.

Also, since 2012, QBs making their first playoff start in the Wild Card round have had an 11-34 record straight up. In the current case, Daniel Jones qualifies as a signal caller making his first postseason start, while Kirk Cousins has some prior experience.

Ultimately, I believe the Vikings have more firepower with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Dalvin Cook, while the Giants will need a big performance from Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones overachieved with a suspect receiving group this season, but this glaring weakness will cost them on Sunday.

Pick: Vikings -3

 

WILD CARD GAME #5: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) (TOTAL 43.5)

The status of Lamar Jackson was still up in the air at the time I made this post. That complicated this pick, although I’m not sure he can play at a high level even if he finds a way to start, given he has not even practiced in a month.

To me, the best value concerns the total: I would tend to back the under in this AFC North showdown.

During the two regular meetings, the number of points scored were 36 and 43 points, respectively. I expect another hard-fought game where both offenses will need to work hard for every yard gained.

I probably don’t need to convince you that Baltimore won’t light up the scoreboard. They have averaged just 12.5 points scored per game since Week 13. Like I said earlier, even if Lamar suits up for this game, the Ravens won’t magically score 30 points against a fairly stout Bengals defense.

Let’s now turn our attention on Cincinnati’s offense. Baltimore’s defense seems to know how to slow down Joe Burrow. In fact, they held him to 217 passing yards in Week 5, and 215 passing yards in the regular season finale. Add the fact that Cincinnati will be without their starting right guard and right tackle, and you have a recipe for a more difficult game for the Bengals offense.

If I was coaching the Ravens, my main objective would be to milk the clock by running the ball and focusing on safe short throws so that Joe Burrow and company stay off the field. This strategy fits well with the under, so let’s hope John Harbaugh has the same game plan in mind!

Pick: Under 43.5 points

 

WILD CARD GAME #6: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT TAMPA BAY BUCS (TOTAL 45.5)

Teams want to peak when the playoffs begin. That has not been the case for the Cowboys, who have lost two of their final four games, including an embarrassing 26-to-6 loss in Washington last week.

That being said, the Bucs have not looked very good in most games this season. As a matter of fact, Tampa finished with a negative 8-9 record, along with a very disappointing -45 point differential. As a comparison, Dallas finished with an impressive +125 point differential. Talk about a hug difference!

I know Mike McCarthy’s squad has not looked good recently, but I’ve got to go with them in the Monday night game. In fact, this awful loss in Washington gave us an opportunity to get a better line this week.

The problem with the Bucs is their offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, and Tom Brady looks way past his prime. The team had the lowest yards-per-carry average in the entire NFL, while their passing yards per attempt finished second-worst in the league. All the offense does is throw short passes, which makes it easy to gameplan against.

Despite all the complaints revolving around the Cowboys, they ended the season with an average of more than 27 points scored per game. By comparison, Tampa scored more than 27 points only two times during the whole year!

I know Dallas will be on the road for the third consecutive week, and Tom Brady holds a perfect 7-0 career record against Dallas, but the streak ends here. The Cowboys have presented a 10-1 record ATS in their next game following a straight up loss during their last 11 defeats, while Tampa got an 0-7-1 ATS record under the same conditions.

Pick: Cowboys -2.5

 

We are now ready to roll in the NFL playoffs! I’m super grateful that you have decided to spend time with me by watching this video. Thank you so much my friend and enjoy the exciting games!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)