NFL Picks Week #9 (2021 regular season)
NFL PICKS (WEEK #9)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Wednesday November 3rd, 2021 at 1 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Last week, we won 2 picks and lost 1. It still left a sour taste in my mouth since the losing bet was the pick graded five stars.
I cannot believe the Colts blew a 14-point lead at home against a running team. I recommended taking Indianapolis when the point spread was 0, while claiming I expected the Colts to become 2.5-point favorites later in the week. That is exactly what happened. We got great value, so I don’t regret the bet at all.
Let’s recap how the NFL picks have done so far in 2021, as a function of their star rating:
- 5 STARS: 0-1-1
- 4 STARS: 5-1
- 3 STARS: 5-2
- 2 STARS: 1-5
- 1 STAR: 7-0
- TOTAL: 18-9-1 (66.7% win rate)
- (Leans: 12-10-1)
Meanwhile, proposition bets shared with paid members on my Patreon page have shown a 28-18 record, a 61% winning percentage. That is one of the benefits of joining the numerous other smart sports investors on this platform. You also receive betting tips on college football, the NBA and very soon college basketball! Follow the link here to get ALL of my betting picks!
Here are the 46 NFL prop bets shared with Patreon members thus far in 2021:
For Week 9 in the NFL, I’ve got three official picks, as well as three leans. Most of you are used to seeing me pick much more underdogs than favorites in the NFL. Well, let me tell you that you are in for a big surprise this week… Let’s do this!
PICK #1 (4 STARS): BUFFALO BILLS -14 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
There are a few teams in the NFL that tend to do well as big favorites; they don’t shy away from CRUSHING weaker opponents without slowing down. The Bills, the Packers, the Buccaneers and the Rams are among them.
Last week, the Bills beat the spread as 13.5-point favorites against Miami, but it wasn’t easy. Indeed, they led by just six points with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter. After getting a scare, I don’t expect them to look past the Jaguars, especially playing on the road where you cannot afford to let your guard down.
The Bills are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as the visiting team when facing a squad with a losing record. They have also enjoyed quite a bit of success in Jacksonville, as evidenced by their 4-1 record ATS in their last five trips over there.
One more thing I like about Buffalo is their very short injury list. The only starter who is likely to miss the game is left guard Jon Feliciano. Tight end Dawson Knox has a 50-50 chance of suiting up this Sunday, but all other starters on offense and defense are in good shape.
I also like how these teams match up. The Jaguars defense has done a fine job defending the run this season. However, they rank dead last against the pass, in terms of passer rating allowed. That does not bode well when matching up against the Bills offense who likes to throw the ball a lot. Josh Allen and company should have no trouble shredding Jacksonville’s defense.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have stunk on offense, especially through the air. The ground game has had some success, but running back James Robinson left last week’s game in Seattle. If he doesn’t play, I like this bet even more. But even if he starts, I have no problem betting the Bills.
There are also many trends going against Jacksonville. Just to name a few, they are 3-7 ATS the last 10 times they were underdogs, and have not covered the spread in any of their last five home games against a team with a winning record.
For all of these reasons, I am putting my money on Buffalo laying 14 points. Most sportsbooks have a spread of 14.5, but some still have 14.0, at the time I wrote this article. I like it!
PICK #2 (2 STARS): LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -2.5 AT NEW YORK GIANTS
The rest factor gives a big edge to the Raiders. As a matter of fact, they are coming off their bye week, while the Giants lose one day of preparation after playing last Monday in Kansas City. Do not underestimate the importance of this factor.
Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard are uncertain to play. Considering the New York Football Giants have their bye week coming up, they are likely to sit so they can be in better shape for the second portion of their schedule. They represent a big part of New York’s offense.
Speaking of injuries, the news are much better in the Raiders camp. The following five starters are likely to be back on the field: running back Josh Jacobs, star tight end Darren Waller, left guard Richie Incognito and cornerbacks Damon Arnette and Trayvon Mullen. That’s a lot of good players coming back to give the team a boost. However, just before publishing this article I heard the news of Henry Ruggs getting waived after killing a woman in a car accident. This new piece of information does not change my pick.
I have also read a report about how road favorites coming off their bye week have done extremely well over the past several seasons. Such teams tend to be solid football squads, and it has been shown that those types of teams tend to make good use of the extra time to game plan against their upcoming opponent.
The last 21 times the Giants were home underdogs, they have gone 5-16 ATS.
In my opinion, the Raiders are a good value wager as 2.5-point favorites here.
PICK #3 (1 STAR): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -10.5 VS NEW YORK JETS
I am taking advantage of the “Mike White Rebate”. What do I mean? Last week, the point spread on this game was 14.5. Following the 405-passing-yard performance by Mike White last week, the line dropped a full four points.
I am not buying the hype. All it’s going to do is make sure the Colts don’t underestimate the Jets. And since Indianapolis lost a heart-breaker against the Titans last week, they will be fired up on primetime television.
There must be a reason why Mike White had not played a single snap in any of his first three seasons in the NFL. He completed a lot of short passes against the Bengals last week, and the Colts will be ready for him. Don’t forget that White has still thrown four interceptions in two games.
Upsetting the Bengals felt like winning the Super Bowl for the Jets. The party is over and it will be time to get back to Earth. I don’t like the Jets’ chances of keeping it close with such an inexperienced quarterback under center, playing on a short week, and on the road. That’s a lot of hurdles to overcome.
Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton will miss the game, but it does not bother me that much. The Colts are much stronger than the Jets on both sides of the ball, they will be at home and with added motivation after dropping that game to the Titans. Sitting on a 3-5 record, Indy MUST win this game. I expect the Colts to take this game by a 31-to-13 score.
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans:
- Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs Cleveland Browns (Cincy holds an 11-2 record ATS in their past 13 meetings with the Browns, including 5-1 at home. The Bengals are much better throwing the ball than running it, and it happens to be Cleveland’s weakness on defense. Indeed, they rank 21st in terms of passer rating allowed. The Bengals are healthy, while the Browns are not.);
- Under 50.5 points Chargers-Eagles (The Eagles can be effective on the ground, while the Chargers’ run defense ranks dead last in terms of rushing yards allowed per attempt. For this reason, I expect Philly to keep the ball on the ground and run out the clock in order to leave Justin Herbert on the sidelines as often as possible.);
- San Francisco 49ers +1 vs Arizona Cardinals (I am not making it an official pick because Arizona gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday and they are 6-1-1 ATS over their last eight meetings with the Niners. However, San Francisco will be looking for payback after losing 17-10 in Week 5, they get Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle back, Jimmy G played great against a tough Bears defense last week, and Arizona’s run defense ranks 31st in terms of yards-per-carry average. And Kyler Murray might miss the game, otherwise he will be limited running the ball.).
I wish you all a nice and lucrative weekend, have fun with your family! Again, if you want to receive all betting picks across all sports from a guy holding a PhD in statistics, simply follow this link for the Patreon page!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)