NFL Picks Week #9 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


There are three official picks this week:

Written Thurday October 31st, 2018 (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Atlanta Falcons +2 at Washington Redskins (rated 3 stars)

The Falcons will feel much more desperate than the Skins in this one, and they are also coming off their bye week so plenty of time to game plan against the NFC East leaders. Washington could get caught looking ahead to a key divisional matchup against the Cowboys next week.


PICK #2: Los Angeles Chargers +2 at Seattle Seahawks (rated 2 star)

I am picking one more team benefiting from seven extra days of preparation. The Chargers may be better than what most people think; their only two losses occurred against the Chiefs and the Rams, which may be the top two teams in the league. For some reason I feel like the Seahawks could lose a bit of focus after winning fairly easily over the Lions last week.


PICK #3: Green Bay Packers +6 at New England Patriots (rated 1 star)

I’m not a big fan of laying the Patriots because of their general success against the spread over the past few years. However, my system and my set of rules are suggesting to bet the Cheeseheads so that’s what I’m going to do. Last week, New England played one of the worst offenses the NFL has seen in many years (Buffalo, who has averaged a ridiculous 7.4 points per game over their past five games) which is not good preparation before you face Aaron Rodgers. The Pats also lose a day of preparation since they played last Monday night. Meanwhile, the Packers MUST win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. They just suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Rams, a game they could have easily won if Ty Montgomery had not made the mistake of returning the kickoff and fumbling the ball with two minutes left. Montgomery was traded a few days later, and so was Clinton-Dix. I do not believe it means the Packers are giving up for this year. As a matter of fact, I feel they are going to rebound nicely and play with passion.

System on Totals

Both picks lost last week so the season record goes to 8-5 (61.5%), which is still very nice!

There are two plays according to this system for week #9: over 45 Jets-Dolphins and over 46 Texans-Broncos.



A couple of unofficial picks for this week:

  • Minnesota Vikings -4.5 vs Detroit Lions. Minnesota was supposed to be a powerhouse this season, but they have played below expectations. I think they start waking up here against a divisional opponent, especially after losing on national television against the Saints. It will also be their third home game over their past four games.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Baltimore Ravens. After losing 26-14 to those same Ravens earlier in the year, the Steelers will make them pay.



Professor MJ