NFL PICKS (WEEK #8)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Written Wednesday October 26^th, 2022 at 2 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

 

Last week, I shared 3 official NFL picks with you, which yielded a 2-1 record. We lost the Jaguars -3 points against the Giants, but we won Las Vegas as 6.5-point favorites against Houston, and also the Commanders +5.5 points, hosting the reeling Green Bay Packers.

So far this season, my NFL picks on sides and totals have produced a 20-17 record, a 54% winning rate.

Let’s keep it going! My NFL Week 8 picks are coming your way!!!

 

PICK #1: OVER 49.5 RAIDERS-SAINTS

I am anticipating a shootout between these two teams due to many factors. First, let’s take a look at the “expected points added” statistics, also called EPA. I explained to you last week how it works, so I won’t do it again this week to avoid being repetitive.

The Raiders’ defense ranks third in the NFL in terms of their EPA against the run, but 31^st defending the pass. Similarly, New Orleans’ defense sits in 7^th place against the run, but 29^th against the pass. So, in other words, both defensive units are SIGNIFICANTLY weaker against the pass, which is great news when betting the over since running the ball tends to milk the clock.

Another key argument supporting this bet is the fact that the Raiders offense is still being underrated by the general public. They have been very effective, despite Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller being in and out of the lineup due to injuries. At running back, Josh Jacobs has been running like a mad man recently. In fact, he has rushed for at least 140 yards in each of his past three outings, while racking up six TDs on the ground in those three contests.

Here's an example of how good Vegas has been at putting up points on the board. They scored 32 points against Denver, a team that has allowed an average of 13 points per game to their other opponents in regulation. Granted, the Raiders scored a defensive touchdown in that game, but that means they still generated 25 points from their offense. That is still double what Denver’s defense has surrendered to other teams.

Derek Carr’s weakness is he’s not great at avoiding pressure. However, the Saints currently rank among the worst teams in the league in that department.

Meanwhile, the Saints offense has been getting hotter and hotter. After scoring an average of 19 points per game in their first four games, but have obtained an average of 33 points per game in their three most recent matches. One of the reasons was Alvin Kamara being hurt and missing two games earlier, but he seems fine now. New Orleans may also get wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry back in the lineup this weekend.

So, for all of these reasons, I like the Raiders versus Saints matchup to feature many points to be scored, which is why I’m betting the over.

 

PICK #2: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The point spread has now dropped to 3, but in order to be coherent with the picks I share to my members on Patreon, the official play here is Washington +3.5. As you can see below, I suggested this play on Monday at 2:22 pm Eastern Time, just around the moment when it was announced that the Colts would bench Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger.

The offensive line for the Colts has been a major disappointment this year, and it has led to a league-high 80 QB hits so far. Matt Ryan being unable to avoid the rush, it has made Indy’s offense stagnant. The organization hopes Ehlinger’s scrambling ability will give them a boost.

The new signal caller for the Colts has enjoyed good preseason performances. Indeed, he completed 24-of-29 passes for 289 yards, 4 TDs and 0 interception. He also rushed three times for 71 yards and a score.

Those are impressive numbers, but we are still talking about preseason games against second or third-stringers. Let’s also keep in mind that he was drafted in the 6^th round, and that he has never played in real NFL action. Also, Washington’s defensive line is pretty stout and could cause some major problems.

Both teams have a similar record and comparable point differentials. I expect a low-scoring affair, in which case taking the underdog is often the best alternative. I’m taking the Commanders as 3.5-point dogs in Indianapolis this Sunday.

 

PICK #3: MIAMI DOLPHINS -3.5 AT DETROIT LIONS

When Tua Tagovailoa has played the majority of the game, the Dolphins are 4-0. In the remaining games, Miami is 0-3. Big difference!

The Lions may have the worst defense in the NFL, so how can they keep up with speedsters like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Detroit’s only win of the season occurred at home against Washington, while the Dolphins found a way to beat both the Ravens and the Bills. If not for Tua’s concussion, Miami might have a better record than 4-3 right now.

The aspect where the Lions’ offense have been the most efficient has been their running game. But that turns out where Miami’s defense has fared better. In fact, their EPA against the run ranks 6^th in the league, whereas they sit in 27^th place defending the pass. Detroit might try to keep the game close via their passing game, but in the end I believe the Dolphins will take this game by a 10-point margin after Jared Goff turns the ball over a couple of times.

 

It's now time for my quick-fire picks on the other games, but let me remind you that they are NOT official betting plays. I am sharing them for entertainment purposes only.

• For the Thursday Night game, I would tend to back the Bucs to rebound after a couple of ugly losses, including a shocker in Carolina where the Panthers prevailed 21-3 over Tampa. Tom Brady is 14-3 on Thursday Night Football, and I believe he will do enough against a struggling Ravens defense to win this game.
• The Broncos will square off against the Jags in London. It looks like Russell Wilson will get the nod for Denver, but I still prefer to side with Jacksonville laying 2.5 points. Denver’s defense is very stout, but Jacksonville’s unit is above-average and their offense is more dangerous. They will avenge a 23-13 defeat from last year.
• I really don’t know who to pick in the Carolina versus Atlanta matchup. I keep changing my mind. The Panthers did well after cleaning house and they have a solid defense, but can they score enough to keep the game close? Honestly, I would prefer to avoid making a pick here, but just for fun let’s go with Carolina +4.5. (Update on October 28: I am now convinced that the Panthers is the way to go. I like it more and more!).
• I am leaning towards Dallas -9.5 against Chicago. The Bears may let down a little bit after their big upset victory in New England last Monday. Chicago will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. They have a very weak offensive line, which is bad news when facing the fierce Cowboys pass rush. Big underdogs coming off a game in which they racked up 3+ interceptions tend to do badly: they obtained a 12-22 record ATS over a few seasons.
• I’ll go with Arizona +3.5 in Minnesota. The Vikings have a history of winning games in tight fashion, so I prefer to take the Cards and the points. DeAndre Hopkins had a huge impact last week, and it will help Kyler Murray tremendously.
• At the time I wrote this post, there were many Saints players whose playing status is uncertain: wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, along with Marshon Lattimore and left guard Andrus Peat. That makes this pick hard to do. If forced to bet, I would go with New Orleans +2, but with very little confidence.¸
• My lean goes to New England -1.5 in New York. Yes, they played very badly on primetime television against the Bears, but Bill Belichick will find a way to fix their issues. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS after suffering a double-digit home loss. The Jets suffered a big blow when they lost running back Breece Hall and offensive linemen Alijah Vera-Tucker.
• Elite teams coming off their bye week are very dangerous. For this reason, I like the Eagles -10.5 points against Pittsburgh. Philly will also be at home for the third consecutive week, while the Steelers are on the road for the third time in four weeks. The Eagles are pretty healthy with very few injuries, and they have a 4-1 ATS record at home against teams with a losing record.
• I am taking Houston +2.5 against the Titans. Tennessee has won its past four outings, but Ryan Tannehill seems pretty banged up. It looks like there is a real chance he could miss the contest. Also, this looks like a trap game for the Titans, given it is sandwiched between a marquee matchup with the Colts last week, and a meeting with the Chiefs next week. The Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips in Houston, while the Texans hold a 5-1 record ATS at home against teams with a positive record.
• The Rams are coming off their bye week, a situation in which they have posted an 11-4-1 record against the spread in recent years. It is also worth noting that Los Angeles will be at home for the fourth straight week, which happens rarely in the NFL. We also have the revenge factor going our way since the Niners beat the Rams earlier in Week 4 by a 24-to-9 score. For these reasons, I would tend to go with the Rams +1.5 against the 49ers. Granted, I am wary of the fact that San Francisco has beaten the spread in each of their past four visits in L.A.
• The Giants as 3-point underdogs would be my pick in this New York versus Seattle matchup. Both teams have been pleasant surprises so far in this 2022 campaign, with New York posting the better point differential. D.K. Metcalf got hurt and may not be on the field this Sunday. I’m taking New York and the three points here.
• As mentioned earlier, betting elite teams coming off their bye week has been a winning proposition in the past. According to this rule, I would tend to side with Buffalo -11 against Green Bay. The big question is obviously when Aaron Rodgers and company will finally wake up? Probably not in Buffalo, whose defense is ranked #1 based on many metrics. Allen Lazard is injured, which won’t help Green Bay’s offense.
• The Browns are 2-6 ATS on Monday Night Football recently. They are also 5-15-1 at home against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bengals present an impressive 7-1 record ATS in their last eight visits in Cleveland. Cincinnati will also be looking for revenge after losing both meetings last year. I’d take Cincy -3.5 in Cleveland. (Update October 28: Ja'Marr Chase is out and the line dropped to 3. I'm surprised the line didn't go down further. For this reason, I would now tend to go with Cleveland +3).

 

I cannot thank you enough for spending time with me, I appreciate you! I hope you enjoyed this write-up and I’m looking forward to speak to you again next week!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)