NFL Picks Week #7 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


There are three official picks this week:

Written Wednesday October 17th, 2018 (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: New York Jets +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings (rated 3 stars)

At the time of writing, most bookies have the Jets +3 at +105 (or 2.05 in decimal format), but I elected to grab them at +3.5 with -120 odds (or 1.833 in decimal format) at Sports Interaction. I leave it up to you. Pinnacle currently has +3.5 -129 (or 1.775 in decimal format), which is too steep of a price in my opinion.

Third home game in a row for the Jets, Vikings may be looking ahead to a key matchup against the Saints (and a rematch of last year’s awesome playoff game), non-conference road game is less motivating. You may be surprised to see each team’s point differential thus far this season: +26 for the Jets versus -8 for the Vikings. I am worried about some injuries at the wide receiver position for the Jets though: Enunwa is out, while Pryor and Robby Anderson are questionable. Also, Isaiah Crowell did not practice Wednesday; hopefully he’ll be good to go.


PICK #2: Chicago Bears +3.5 vs New England Patriots (rated 2 stars)

I expect Da Bears to rebound following a disappointing overtime loss in Miami, while the Pats could find it difficult to match last week’s emotion level when they faced the Chiefs on  Sunday Night Football (especially against a non-conference team).


PICK #3: Washington Redskins -1.5 vs Dallas Cowboys (rated 1 star)

Washington has been at home on 5 of the previous 6 weeks (including a bye), so not much traveling thus far. They will be looking for revenge after getting beaten up twice by Dallas last year (33-19 at home and 38-14 on the road). Also, I generally like to lay teams that are coming off an easy win; in this case, the Cowboys just beat Jacksonville by a 33-point margin.

System on Totals

The method went 2-0 last week, so the season’s overall record now stands at 8-2.

According to this system, we should be taking over 45 Panthers-Eagles.



  • Kansas City Chiefs -6 against the Cincinnati Bengals. A great team coming off a loss usually does well against the spread, so I expect K.C. to bounce back after losing in New England.
  • Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers (in London).



Professor MJ