NFL Picks Week #6 (2023 regular season)
NFL PICKS (WEEK #6)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written October 9th, 2023 at 11 AM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Are you looking for good solid bets in the NFL for Week 6?
Professor MJ comes to the rescue, and I’ve got plenty of betting tips for you in this article!
PICK #1: CHICAGO BEARS +3 (VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS)
Without further ado, pick number one goes to the Chicago Bears +3 points against the Minnesota Vikings. Please note that I’ve written this article on Monday, so six days before kickoff. Depending on when you read this post, the line might have changed, or information that I discuss could be different.
At the time I made the post, all signs pointed in the direction of Justin Jefferson missing the game. He exited Week 5’s loss to the Chiefs, and never returned with a hamstring injury. Those types of injuries tend to take at least one week to recover. Minnesota’s offense was not necessarily firing on all cylinders even with Jefferson in the lineup, so things might get pretty difficult is he is out. The Vikings have scored between 17 and 28 points in their five games this season, so they aren’t lighting up the scoreboard.
Meanwhile, are the Bears and Justin Fields turning the corner? Fields is coming off back-to-back impressive performances, having tossed 4 TD passes in each of his past two contests. I am aware that he wasn’t facing stout defenses, but the Vikings aren’t very good defending the pass either.
I also like the fact that Chicago gets three extra days of rest and preparation after playing last Thursday. The revenge factor also comes into play since Da Bears lost both meetings with Minnesota last year.
Minnesota posted a perfect 11-0 record last year in one-score games. So far this year they are 1-4 under these conditions. They are probably feeling frustrated right now, and frustration often leads to bad results.
Let me take +3 points with the home squad against a division rival holding the same record. To me, that sounds like good value, especially against the fading Vikings without their top player.
PICK #2: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +2.5 (VS DALLAS COWBOYS)
My second official NFL pick for Week 6 is the Los Angeles Chargers as 2.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys. There are lots of arguments supporting this pick, so let me share them with you right away.
First, the Chargers are coming off their bye week, while the Cowboys just played against a physical 49ers team. There is no doubt which team will be better rested in the Monday nightery.
The travel factor also gives L.A. the edge. Indeed, the Chargers will be at home for the third straight week, while Dallas will be on the road for the third time in four weeks. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys played in Arizona before going back home for a single game. Then, they played in San Francisco last week and are headed to L.A. this week.
The Chargers managed to get the W in their last game despite missing lots of key starters: running back Austin Ekeler, wide receiver Mike Williams, safety Derwin James and linebacker Joey Bosa. They are all pretty likely to suit up for the Monday night game, except for Mike Williams who is done for the year. QB Justin Herbert also suffered an injury to his non-throwing hand, but he should be just fine.
The Cowboys versus Chargers game will represent the Kellen Moore revenge game! He was criticized often as the offensive coordinator in Dallas, and he found a new home with the Chargers. Can he stick it to his former team? We’ll find out soon.
The Cowboys have picked up some easy wins, but their defense feasted on several bad offenses: the Giants, the Jets, the Cardinals and the Patriots.
Last week, America’s team was humiliated 42-10 on primetime television in San Francisco. That is my only source of concern regarding this game, as Dallas might be more motivated given their poor outing last Sunday.
Still, there are so many betting angles telling me to bet the Chargers that I have decided to pull the trigger. Let’s go with Brandon Staley’s team +2.5 points at home against the Cowboys.
It’s time for some quick-fire leans, which means they are unofficial betting plays.
LEAN #1: NEW YORK GIANTS +14.5 (AT BUFFALO BILLS)
Up first, I am tempted by the New York Giants +14.5 points in Buffalo. Pretty much all the numbers indicate to back the Bills. As a statistician, you would expect me to go with Buffalo, right?
Well, as much as I like numbers, I also incorporate my own take of the situation. In this case, the numerous key injuries on defense for the Bills are going to make it difficult for the team to cover such a large point spread.
Also, I still think the Giants are not as bad as what we’ve seen so far. The biggest problem is their offensive line. But will the Bills really manage to put a lot of pressure on Daniel Jones? Greg Rousseau and DaQuan Jones could be out. The Bills also lost their best linebacker, Matt Milano, and their best cornerback, Tre’Davious White.
It looks like Saquon Barkley should be back on the field, which will give the offense a big boost. In my opinion, the G-Men will do enough to cover the 14.5-point spread.
LEAN #2: CINCINNATI BENGALS -2.5 (VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS)
My second lean goes to the Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 points against the Seahawks. After four rough games, Joe Burrow finally looked like his old self last week. I know he was facing a weak Arizona defense, but he still torched them. Moreover, he was able to scramble, which shows his calf injury is not bothering him nearly as much as it did earlier this season.
Seattle is coming off its bye week, so that’s bad news for the Bengals. Still, I feel like the spread is very reasonable and I like Cincy to win this game by a field goal or more.
LEAN #3: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3 (AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS)
Lean #3 for Week 6 in the NFL goes to the New England Patriots +3 in Vegas. Given that I am a contrarian by nature, that should not come as a surprise. They have been outscored 72-to-3 in their past two games, but I like the Pats to rebound. Teams that have been shutout in recent years have obtained a 20-9-3 record against the spread in their next match, so I like the trend to continue.
The Raiders lose one day of preparation after playing on Monday night against the Packers. And the Patriots will be looking to avenge a heart-breaking and unbelievable game that they lost 30-24 on the last play of regulation.
LEAN #4: TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5 (VS BALTIMORE RAVENS)
Let’s move on to my fourth lean, which goes to Tennessee +3.5 points against Baltimore in London. I have often said that I don’t like Mike Vrabel’s team when they are established as favorites, but they often cover as underdogs. I’ll stick to my word and go with the Titans, especially given how Baltimore has not been very impressive. Their wide receiver group is struggling a lot; they made several drops in Pittsburgh last week. The Ravens could also go through a letdown game after facing two straight divisional opponents, the Browns and the Steelers. I like Tennessee to cover the 3.5-point spread.
LEAN #5: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5 (AT HOUSTON TEXANS)
I’ve got a fifth lean for you: the New Orleans Saints as slight favorites in Houston. I am not officially betting the Saints, mostly because they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks.
However, I like the improvement they have shown over recent weeks. Derek Carr’s shoulder appeared much healthier last week in New England. Alvin Kamara is rounding into form after playing his first two games of the season. Chris Olave was slowed down by an ankle injury last week, but he should be in better shape in Houston this Sunday.
Houston’s defense is surprising many, but New Orleans’ group is still a notch better. I like what C.J. Stroud has done this season, but to me the Saints are a more complete team.
Earlier in this article, I gave you two official NFL wagers for Week 6: the Bears +3 against the Vikings, along with the Chargers +2.5 against the Cowboys. I have already shared another official pick on the Detroit versus Tampa Bay game at mjpicks.com, and I am likely to have more this week on sides and totals.
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I’m Professor MJ, holder of a PhD in statistics wishing you a great and lucrative Week 6 in the NFL!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)