NFL Picks Week #6 (2022 regular season)
NFL PICKS (WEEK #6)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Wednesday October 12th, 2022 at 11 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, we have experienced four winning weeks versus a single losing one. As you can see below, last week we posted a 7-6 record against the spread (ATS) across all NFL picks.
For Week 6, I would like to share 2 official picks with you, along with a couple of unofficial ones for which I am still sitting on the fence.
My hope is that it will help you in your decision-making process regarding your NFL bets for the upcoming weekend. Get ready, let’s go!
PICK #1: BUFFALO BILLS -2.5 AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
What the Bills have accomplished thus far in the 2022 season is very impressive. They lead the NFL with a +91-point differential. The teams ranking second in that category are not even close with a +47 figure.
Buffalo’s only blemish is a 21-19 defeat in Miami in Week 3. However, there was nothing to be ashamed of considering the Bills dominated total yardage 497 versus only 212 for the Dolphins.
The Bills simply don’t have any glaring holes. The same cannot be said about the Chiefs, even though they have performed very well as a whole this year. Kansas City’s pass defense ranks 28th in terms of passer rating allowed to opposing QBs. That’s a major source of concern when you are about to face Josh Allen and company.
If you have been following me for a while, you know I appreciate the “revenge factor.” In this case, the Bills suffered a devasting playoff overtime loss in Kansas City last year, so they will be looking for some payback. Sure, the Bills beat the Chiefs in K.C. during the regular season, but that’s nothing compared to the anger generated from a postseason defeat.
I also like the fact that the Chiefs lose one day of preparation, given they played last Monday night against the Raiders. Again, those are not optimal conditions before a meeting against such a strong squad like Buffalo.
I must admit I am worried about the fact that the Bills have lost against the spread the last five times they played on grass. Still, I like the Bills to beat the spread in this pivotal AFC matchup.
PICK #2: DENVER BRONCOS +5.5 AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I believe the line is inflated because of the horrible game we witnessed last Thursday in Denver. However, I sincerely believe the Broncos can play much better this week in what I project to be a tight divisional game. Denver may lose this match, but they won’t go down easily against their archrivals from the AFC West division.
Once again, we have a pick that favors us in terms of rest. Indeed, having played last Thursday, the Broncos will benefit from three extra days compared to L.A.
Also, the injury situation might give us an edge. One of the best safeties in the NFL, Justin Simmons, seems likely to be back after missing the past four games for Denver. For the Chargers, beat writers are not optimistic about Keenan Allen’s chances of suiting up this Monday. Joey Bosa is still out for Los Angeles, which is a big blow to their defense.
However, we have learned that Russell Wilson is hurt: he has a strained lat muscle, a large muscle in the back under the shoulder blade. That probably contributes to his bad start to the 2022 season. This piece of news worries me; hopefully he feels better by Monday.
I like how these teams match up. Let me explain why.
The Chargers ran the ball well last week, but they were facing Cleveland who have struggled in that department this year. L.A.’s offense is more of a passing unit, and that turns out to be Denver’s strength on defense. In fact, they have allowed the ninth-lowest passer rating in 2022.
Meanwhile, with Russell Wilson struggling and being injured, the Broncos would prefer to run more often. Well, that should be a good option this week since the Chargers are dead last in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per carry.
Finally, did you know that the Chargers hold a 5-13 record ATS the last 18 times they were at home facing a team with a losing record? Give me Denver and the 5.5 points in this contest.
The next couple of predictions are NOT official picks. I am tempted to bet them, but I haven’t pulled the trigger.
LEAN #1: CHICAGO BEARS STRAIGHT UP VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Justin Fields was more efficient as a passer last week. He also had a 52-yard TD scamper called back by penalty. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney also woke up with a long reception. Chicago also has a strong duo of running backs with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. They seem to be finding some rhythm.
Meanwhile, Carson Wentz averaging 278 passing yards per game might lead you to believe that things are going fine. But he has already thrown six interceptions and has fumbled the ball six times. He was lucky enough to have only one of those fumbles being lost, but that is still not reassuring.
Please note that Washington has scored an average of 11.7 points over their past three games. That’s abysmal.
I like how Chicago’s defense matches up against Washington’s offense. The Commanders have not enjoyed much success running the ball this year, so they had to resort to throwing the ball often. However, that fits well with Chicago’s defense, whose strength has been its pass defense. They rank 11th in the league in terms of passer rating allowed.
Granted, Washington has beaten the spread in each of their last five visits at Soldier Field. It’s also hard to trust Chicago given they have posted a 5-11-1 record ATS in their last 17 games.
That’s why I probably won’t bet this game, but if I was forced to do it I’d take Da Bears playing at home on a short week against the Commanders.
LEAN #2: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +8.5 VS TAMPA BAY BUCS
The main reason I am not officially wagering on the Steelers is because they have five secondaries currently listed as questionable: Cameron Sutton, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Terrell Edmunds, Ahkello Witherspoon and Levi Wallace. That might change depending on when you read this post, but that’s the situation as of Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, I like Pittsburgh to cover this huge 8-point spread at home against a Tampa team that has not impressed me that much so far. Tampa’s offense has scored the 19th most points in the league, so asking them to win by 9 points or more on the road against an above-average defense is a daunting task.
Sure, the Steelers offense may not score many points either. But, in my mind, there is a chance they do put some points on the board.
Kenny Pickett wasn’t bad in his first NFL start, given he faced the #1 defense in the NFL, on the road! He led his team all the way to Buffalo’s 30-yard line on six occasions. He also has some good weapons around him, so I would not be shocked if Pittsburgh scored 20 points. In that case, the Bucs would have to score at least 29 for this bet to lose, which won’t be easy.
Pittsburgh has a history of performing well after allowing tons of points in their previous match. Indeed, after surrendering more than 30 points in a game, they followed up by beating the spread each of the last four times they were in this situation.
Also note that Tampa has a 2-5 record ATS the last seven times they were on the road against teams with a losing record.
I appreciate you spending some time with me! I hope you found this post insightful, and I wish you the best of luck with your betting plays this weekend. Bye my friend!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)