NFL Picks Week #6 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


Hello my friends!

We won both of our 4-star plays last week, but lost both of our 3-star picks so we finished the week with a 2-2 record. Our overall record this season is now 9-3, which amounts to a 75.0% winning percentage.

In case you are interested, here is a breakdown of the picks won/lost per star rating thus far this season:

  • 5 stars: 0-0
  • 4 stars: 4-0
  • 3 stars: 3-2
  • 2 stars: 2-1
  • 1 star: 0-0

There are two official picks this week:

PICK #1: New England Patriots -3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs (rated 4 stars)

The rest factor is definitely in favor of Belichick’s squad: not only are they getting three extra days of preparation following a Thursday night game (do you really want to give Belichick more time to game plan against you?), but they will also be at home for the third straight game. I also bet the Pats are still pissed about losing their home opener last season by a 42-27 score against those same Chiefs. They won’t let that happen again. Losing guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif might hurt Mahomes’ protection, while the status of star linebacker Justin Houston is uncertain (he exited the game against the Jags early).


PICK #2: Cleveland Browns +1 vs Los Angeles Chargers (rated 4 stars)

The Chargers will be traveling three time zones to play at 1 pm Eastern Time. They are coming off a fairly easy win against archrivals Raiders; a letdown is possible. Meanwhile, Cleveland will be at home for a third time over their past four games. They will also look to avenge a 19-10 loss at the Chargers in 2017.

System on Totals

The method went 1-1 last week, so the season’s overall record now stands at 6-2.

According to this system, we should be taking over 45 Colts-Jets and over 59 Chiefs-Pats.

Thanks for reading and see you next week!

Professor MJ