NFL Picks Week #5 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


Hello my sports investing friends!

PICK #1: New York Jets -1 vs Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)

The Broncos lose one day of preparation after playing last Monday Night. They are also traveling a couple of time zones while playing at 1pm Eastern Time. This could likely be a sandwich game for them after playing the Chiefs and having the powerful Los Angeles Rams up next. I expect Sam Darnold to bounce back after a difficult game against the stiff Jaguars defense.


PICK #2: Cleveland Browns +3 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

The Ravens could let down a little bit (even though the Browns are divisional rivals) after playing an emotional game in Pittsburgh. Third road game in past four games for Baltimore.


PICK #3: Carolina Panthers -7 vs New York Giants (rated 3 stars)

Carolina should be in top shape coming off a bye week, and also having played only one road game thus far. The Giants could be looking ahead to a rivalry game against the Eagles on week #6. I believe the Giants’ offensive line will struggle quite a bit against Carolina’s front seven, especially on the road.


PICK #4: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at K.C. Chiefs (rated 3 stars)

The Chiefs finally showed some signs of weakness in their win over Denver last week. They could have easily lost this game. This week they are facing a much tougher opponent. Jacksonville is well-rested after three straight home games. K.C. loses one day of preparation and have traveled quite a bit so far this season (Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and Denver).

Just Lucky?

If you like numbers, you are going to enjoy this section. Last year our picks went 36-23-3. Let’s omit the 3 ties for the sake of this discussion. Combining last year’s record with this year’s, we get to a 43-24 record (a 64.2% winning percentage). That being said, what is the probability of obtaining such level of success by chance?

More specifically, if my method was just as good as flipping a coin (i.e. a “true” winning percentage of 50%), what are the odds of winning at least 43 bets out of 67? The answer: just 1.4%.

In order to be a winning sports investor, you need to win more than one bet out of two. If you are a -105 bettor (1.95 in decimal format), you are going to break even if you win 51.2% of your plays. What is the probability of having won at least 43 bets out of 67 when your “true” winning percentage is 51.2%? The answer turns out to be 2.2%.

It basically says that my method for selecting winning picks has a 97.8% chance of truly being a profitable one (and not just the result of being lucky over that stretch). As a stat guy, this sounds pretty convincing to me!

The Best Sportsbook

As a side note, if you are still a -110 bettor (1.91 in decimal format), what are you waiting for to sign up with a bookie that offers -105 odds? You are essentially throwing money out the window. If a store is selling beer for $30 and the store next door has the exact same product for $28, why not go there?

My #1 recommendation is that you open an account with Pinnacle. I’ve had an account with them since 1999 or 2000 and my experience with them has been flawless. They are very trustworthy, their lines are the best in the business and customer service is good.

The only drawback is they don’t offer bonuses, but many studies have shown that this is largely compensated by their advantageous lines. This sportsbook is a must for any serious sports investor. Don’t wait any longer and get access to the best odds online:


System on Totals

Both picks won last week, so this system is now 5-1 this season (225-171-14 over more than a 10-year period prior to this year). It should definitely get your attention.

According to the criteria, you need to take over 45 Vikings-Eagles and over 50 Rams-Seahawks.

Thanks guys and have a nice weekend!

Professor MJ