NFL Picks Week #4 (2022 regular season)
NFL PICKS (WEEK #4)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Wednesday September 28st, 2022 at 1 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Welcome to my free NFL Week 4 betting picks!
First, let’s take a look at our 2022 record week-by-week:
We haven’t had a single losing week thus far, both on sides and totals, and also on player proposition bets. Let’s keep it up!
Let me share 3 NFL picks for the upcoming weekend. Enjoy the read my friend!
PICK #1: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -5 AT HOUSTON TEXANS
I’ve got MANY factors/trends/systems pointing in the Chargers’ direction, so I’ve got to take a stab on L.A. even if this bet makes me feel somewhat uncomfortable. My main worry obviously concerns the health of Brandon Staley’s squad.
Justin Herbert is playing through a painful injury, his top wide receiver Keenan Allen will likely play banged up as well and left tackle Rashawn Slater is done for the year. Moreover, stud pass rusher Joey Bosa is doubtful to play, while center Corey Linsley and cornerback J.C. Jackson seem to have a 50/50 shot of playing in Houston. We are talking about key guys for the Chargers, not backups.
Aside from that, I love this play.
The Chargers will be looking for payback after getting upset 41-29 in Week 16 against the Texans, a defeat that gave a crushing blow to their playoff hopes. As if they needed more reasons to be pissed, the Chargers are coming off an embarrassing 38-10 home loss against Jacksonville. They’ve got to be super motivated and really need this win, given their disappointing 1-2 record so far.
Over the last eight meetings between these two clubs, the Chargers are 6-2 ATS.
Also, following a double-digit home loss, Los Angeles presents an 11-3 record ATS; they have shown they can rebound after such ugly losses.
When facing a team with a losing record as the visiting team, the Chargers are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times they were under those circumstances.
Finally, let me share a NFL betting system that I trust. Over a four-year period, it has generated a 96-69 record against the spread. Its rules are super simple: bet AGAINST any home team coming off two or more road losses.
More often than not, teams returning home after several road losses are overvalued by the betting public because they expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams who don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage anyway.
Since the Texans are coming off losses in Denver and Chicago, I am going to make use of this betting strategy this week and take the Chargers as 5-point favorites.
PICK #2: CLEVELAND BROWNS -1 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Jacoby Brissett looks in command of Kevin Stefanski’s offense. So far he has played good game-managing football, and his connection with Amari Cooper and David Njoku is heating up. There is no doubt that Brissett has fared much better than expected for Cleveland.
Cleveland’s passer rating ranks 10th in the league versus 15th for the Falcons. Cordarrelle Patterson is having a great year, but I still prefer the two-headed monster made of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. And Cleveland’s offensive line is much stronger than Atlanta’s. So, overall, you’ve got to give the edge to the Browns on offense.
As far as the defense is concerned, there is no debate here: Cleveland’s unit is much stiffer. For example, the Falcons allowed the lowly Seahawks to rack up 420 total yards last week.
Stud defensive lineman Myles Garrett was involved in a car accident, but as of Wednesday it looks like he should be available to play. I’m crossing my fingers since he is a big part of that defense.
So, in other words, the Browns clearly have the better roster. Sure, they are on the road, but one more argument backing Cleveland is the fact they are benefiting from three extra days of rest after facing the Steelers last Thursday. The Browns win this game on the road.
PICK #3: CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 AT NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants will be playing at home for the third straight week, which is bad news for this bet. Still, there are many aspects that make me want to side with Chicago and lead me to believe this line is too high.
First, the Giants played on Monday night against the Cowboys, which means they lose one day of rest and preparation.
Also, betting New York at home has cost sports bettors a lot recently. In fact, over their past 24 home games, the Giants are 10-23-1 against the spread (ATS).
New York’s clear #1 target has been Sterling Shepard, but he is done for the season after tearing his ACL on the last play of the game. Moreover, Brian Daboll sounded pessimistic about the chances of Kadarius Toney and rookie Wan’Dale Robinson of suiting up this Sunday.
That leaves the WR room with Richie James, Darius Slayton and David Sills. And perhaps Kenny Golladay who has been a huge disappointment.
Justin Fields has not shown much improvement in Year 2, but I believe he can keep this game close enough to win this bet. He might do it with his legs, or perhaps he will find again his connection with Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Chicago’s running game has been impressive and I think they will allow the Bears to avoid losing by four points or more.
Thank you very much for your attention, I hope you appreciated this writeup!
As usual, if you would like to receive ALL of my betting picks in the NFL and college football (in which we currently have an 11-8 record ATS), simply join my Patreon page for just $3.50 per day, just like 240 other people are doing right now!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)