NFL Picks Week #4 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


Hello my sports investing friends!

PICK #1: Green Bay Packers -9.5 (see 888 Sport) vs Buffalo Bills (rated 4 stars)

The Bills are playing a third road game out of four matches thus far this season, including back-to-back as the visiting team. A letdown is possible following a shocking upset in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Packers will be playing like mad men after a mediocre performance in Washington last week.


PICK #2: Chicago Bears -3 vs Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 3 stars)

Tampa loses one day of preparation after playing on Monday Night. The Bears will be looking to avenge a 29-7 loss in Tampa last season. Chicago’s defense is WAY better than Tampa’s, and their offense is improving and underrated with several weapons at their disposal.


PICK #3: New England Patriots -6.5 (see Sports Interaction) vs Miami Dolphins (rated 3 stars)

Miami’s stock is overrated because of their 3-0 record; keep in mind they have beaten three mediocre teams (Tennessee, NY Jets and Oakland). Meanwhile, the Pats are coming off a couple of losses and I expect Bill Belichick to right the ship, especially against divisional foes.


PICK #4: Jacksonville Jaguars -7 vs New York Jets (rated 3 stars)

I don’t like the fact that the Jets will benefit from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. However, it will be their third road game out of four, while the Jags will be at home for the third straight week. An elite team like Jacksonville is fully expected to rebound after a straight up loss; dropping a 9-6 game at home against Tennessee was bad. Also, the Jags will be looking for revenge after a 23-20 overtime loss in New York last season.


PICK #5: Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts (rated 2 stars)

The Texans will be putting extra effort into this game after losing their first three games of the season by a combined total of 15 points, and also considering they lost both matchups with the Colts in 2017. The Colts could be looking ahead a meeting with the Patriots on week #5.

Thursday Night Game

Very slight lean towards Minnesota Vikings +6.5 at LA Rams

The Rams will be missing two key defensive backs: Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. The team has been cruising thus far but they haven’t faced a tough defense yet, and the Vikings will rebound after a dreadful home loss to the Bills. Generally speaking, when a top offense faces a top defense, the latter tends to beat the spread.

However, I am not betting this game because of other conflicting factors (Rams playing a third game in a row at home so well rested, Minnesota traveling two time zones, Rams wanting revenge after losing to those same Vikings last year).

If you were considering betting the Rams, my advice would be to either stay away or bet a smaller amount than usual. And if you were leaning towards the Vikes, go ahead but with caution.

System on Totals

Some of you may have already read the following post in my Facebook group (posted last Friday):

“A little bonus for all: last September I had heard of a system on totals that has generated a 225-171-14 (56.8%) record over a 10-15-year period. I didn't bet it, and kind of forgot about it until yesterday. I just checked how it did last season by going through all 17 weeks and checking whether the criteria for betting were met or not: it went 19-12 (61.3%). Damn! Too bad I didn't play it. This year there were no plays on week #1 and two plays on week #2, with both picks winning. I'm starting to believe in this system! For those interested, according to this system you should be betting over 43.5 Cincinnati-Carolina and over 44.5 Denver-Baltimore.”

Update: this system is now 3-1 this year.

According to the system, you should be betting over 38 Jets-Jaguars and over 45 Browns-Raiders.

Good luck guys and a big THANK YOU for showing faith in my NFL handicapping abilities.

Professor MJ