NFL Picks Week #20 (Conference Championships) (2019 playoffs)

NFL PICKS (WEEK #20 - Conference Championships)


University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


2-2 last week (5-3 in the playoffs), following a season where our record was 26-21. Let’s make predictions for the Conference Championship games!

PICK #1: New Orleans Saints -3 vs Los Angeles Rams

The way the Saints started the game against the Eagles last week was truly awful. Mistakes after mistakes after mistakes. It was one of the worst starts I had seen in a while. And yet, New Orleans came back to beat the Super Bowl champions 20-14. It was their defense that impressed me the most. The completely shut down Nick Foles and company in the second half. Slowing down an explosive offense like the Rams is a different animal, though. Sean Payton won’t have any trouble getting his team ready to start the game on the right foot this time.

I believe the Saints learned a lot from their heartbreaking elimination against the Vikings last year. They are looking for redemption, and I like Drew Brees’ additional experience compared to Jared Goff. Did you know Brees is 6-0 at home in the playoffs? I’m taking New Orleans.


PICK #2: New England Pats +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

I love Patrick Mahomes’ play a lot. He is really exciting to watch! However, I like Bill Belichick’s game planning against inexperienced quarterbacks even more. It’s hard to bet against the Pats at this time of the year. Brady may not be as good as he once was, but he certainly has a lot left in the tank, as evidenced by him literally picking apart a good Chargers defense last week. That was impressive stuff.

Sure, the Chiefs were 7-1 at home this year. But did you look at the strength of their opponents? They played San Francisco, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Denver, Arizona, Baltimore, L.A. Chargers and Oakland. These teams combined for a 50-78 record, which amounts to a .391 record.

I can’t say I’m overly confident about this pick, though. I am worried about New England’s 3-5 road record this year. They have not looked the same away from Gillette Stadium. The revenge factor is always on Kansas City’s side. But beating the Patriots by 4 points or more is no easy task, so I’ll go with the Patriots +3 points in this one.


Have a great weekend fellows!

Professor MJ