NFL PICKS (WEEK #2)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Written Wednesday September 14^th, 2022 at 11 AM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

 

In total, I made 12 picks in the NFL in Week #1 on my Patreon page. Those betting plays generated a 7-5 record.

More specifically, we got a 3-2 record on spreads and totals, whereas we finished with a 4-3 record on player prop bets.

You can see the detailed wagers below:

Now, just like last week, let me share a couple of official picks and a couple of leans for Week #2 in the NFL. If you have been following me for a while, you know that I am a contrarian and that I tend to pick more underdogs than favorites. However, this week will be an exception, as you are about to find out. Buckle up my friend!

 

PICK #1: CINCINNATI BENGALS -7.5 AT DALLAS COWBOYS

The Dallas Cowboys fanbase is on the brink of being in panic mode following Dak Prescott’s injury. In my opinion, things will get much uglier this weekend, and rumors of firing Mike McCarthy will intensify even more. I could see the Bengals taking this game by a 20-point margin.

The Cowboys loss to the Bucs wasn’t pretty. The wide receiver group was particularly bad. The only trustable guy was CeeDee Lamb and he only caught 2 passes out of 11 targets. Some of the passes were not super accurate, but you expect your #1 WR to catch them. Noah Brown, Dennis Houston and Simi Fehoko didn’t do much better. There is a chance that Michael Gallup returns to the lineup, but how much will he be effective following his torn ACL injury?

And of course, having Cooper Rush under center won’t help the passing game. He looked awful on several passes, including an overthrow on a wide open CeeDee Lamb and a pass that hung in the air forever on a fourth down.

The icing on the cake is the offensive line. They had already lost Tyron Smith during the preseason, and now they lost Connor McGovern for a couple of weeks. In short, your eyes might be bleeding after watching Dallas on offense this weekend.

On the other side, Cincinnati suffered a disappointing loss to their archrivals from Pittsburgh. However, they came one extra point away and one chip shot field goal away from winning the game despite turning the ball over five times compared to zero for Pittsburgh. This game would have been lopsided in favor of the Bengals if not for those mistakes. Such mistakes are unlikely to happen again in Dallas on Sunday.

Cincinnati’s offensive line did not fare as well as anticipated in Week #1. But the weakest link in the Cowboys defense happens to be its defensive line. They will have trouble rushing Joe Burrow, except for Micah Parsons. If you give Burrow some time, he will dissect your defense. And that’s what I believe will happen this weekend.

For all of those reasons, I am taking Cincinnati as 7.5-point favorites without hesitation. I rarely try to predict the exact final score, but let me give it a try: the Bengals take this game 31-to-10.

 

PICK #2: BUFFALO BILLS -10 VS TENNESSEE TITANS

What??? Professor MJ is taking another big favorite? Is he sick or what?

Yes, I am going for another big favorite, this time going with Buffalo to crush the Titans. Again, I’ve got many arguments backing this play.

First, the revenge factor. Last year, Tennessee won 34-31 against those same Bills on Monday night. The year before, the Titans humiliated Buffalo 42-16 on a primetime Tuesday night game. I am sure Josh Allen and company remember those games vividly and they will have payback in their minds.

Moreover, the Bills will benefit from three additional days of rest after playing the Thursday night game last week. It’s never good news when an elite team gets more time to gameplan against you.

The Titans led 13-0 at halftime against the Giants. Things were rolling. Then, the defense eventually wilted by allowing three touchdowns to the Giants in the second half. Daniel Jones completed 17 of 21 passes, so good luck trying to stop Josh Allen and his standout receiving group. The Bills looked great by demolishing the defending Super Bowl champs by a 21-point margin, despite turning the ball over four times.

The crowd will be on fire in Orchard Park for the season opener in a primetime game. My only concern is the fact that Tennessee holds an 8-2 record against the spread over their past 10 games on Monday night. As a comparison, Buffalo posted a 2-5-1 record ATS under those circumstances.

Still, I like Buffalo to cruise past the Titans. Once they take the lead, the Bills rarely slow down. There is no reason why they do so, especially against a team that has beaten you twice in recent memory. Buffalo wins 38-to-17.

 

UNOFFICIAL PICKS

For entertainment purposes, here are some unofficial picks, also called “leans”, that I don’t quite like enough to put money at risk, but that you might want to consider:

• Giants -2 vs Panthers (Saquon Barkley looked like the guy that was going in the top-five of fantasy drafts earlier in his career. He looked like he had some juice! Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield did not impress in his first game as a Panther. He was mostly ineffective up to the long bomb TD to Robby Anderson. Carolina’s defense disappointed in Week #1. They allowed 26 points and 355 total yards at home to a Jacoby Brissett-led offense. I’ll go with the New York Football Giants in front of a fired-up crowd who will be rooting for a nice 2-0 start for their team.);
• Bears +10 at Packers (My gosh did the Packers look bad or what? As expected, the pass catchers struggled and missing your two offensive tackles also hurt. Now, both could be back this week, but it’s not a given either. I know the Bears have not had much success at Lambeau Field over the years, but if forced to bet I’d still go with Chicago because the line seems too high to me. At first glance, Justin Fields’ numbers were very good last week, but he did a fine job given the atrocious weather conditions. The team also ran designed runs with him, which shows the new coaching staff is willing to suit his strengths better than what Matt Nagy did last year. I'm taking the Bears and the 10 points).

 

I sincerely wish you the best of luck with your bets this weekend; go crush your bookie man!

My name is Professor MJ, former university statistics teacher, it’s been a pleasure talking to you. Bye my friend!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)