NFL Picks Week #17 (2019 regular season)

NFL PICKS (WEEK #17)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Written Wednesday December 28th, 2019 at 7 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

Official Picks

PICK #1: N/A (rated 5 stars)

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PICK #2: Denver Broncos -3 vs Oakland Raiders (rated 4 stars)

Even though the Raiders are the team that need this game the most, I’ll go with the Broncos.

Denver is playing solid football since rookie Drew Lock took over as their starting quarterback. They are 3-1 despite facing respectable opposition: the Chargers, the Texans, the Chiefs and the Lions.

The Broncos also have a much better point differential this year: they are -35 versus -105 for the Raiders.

Sure, Oakland’s offense is more potent, but Denver has the better defense by far. Don’t forget that the Raiders were undergoing a four-game skid before beating the Chargers last week. The losing streak included losses against the lowly Jets and Jaguars.

Running back Josh Jacobs, who has been one of the most important pieces on offense for the Raiders in 2019, is out with a shoulder injury. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams will play through a foot injury, but he’s clearly not 100%.

Oakland has struggled on the road, as shown by their 2-5 record. Meanwhile, Denver managed to get a positive record at home; they are currently 4-3 (as opposed to 2-6 on the road).

The Broncos are 4-0 against the spread when facing a team with a losing record. However, I’m a bit worried about the fact that Oakland is 4-0 against the spread over the past four meetings with Denver.

PICK #3: N/A (rated 2 stars)

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PICK #4: New York Giants +4 vs Philadelphia Eagles (rated 1 star)

Injuries are playing a major role. This is a critical game for Philly, but they will be missing tight end Zach Ertz, as well as wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery (and DeSean Jackson who got hurt earlier this year).

Stud right tackle Lane Johnson is questionable with an ankle injury. He hasn’t practiced all week and looks like a game-time decision. Finally, the Eagles secondary was weakened even more with the loss of Ronald Darby. Ouch!

I like what Daniel Jones has done in his first season in the NFL. He proved he can move the ball by throwing 23 TD passes over 12 games. He just needs to learn to protect the ball better. Along with Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Cody Latimer, the G-Men have a very decent offense. They can definitely keep up with Philly’s depleted offense who probably won’t score a boatload of points.

The Giants are 4-1 ATS over the past five matchups with the Eagles, but just 3-9 ATS in the past twelve in New York against this opponent.

 

Happy New Year!!!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)