NFL Picks Week #16 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


Written Thursday December 20th, 2018 at 10 AM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Buffalo Bills +13 at New England Patriots (rated 3 stars)

I rarely lay good teams following a loss (in the case of New England following two losses), but I’ll take exception this week by going with Buffalo in this AFC East matchup. The Bills are coming off four week out of 5 where they played at home, while the Pats traveled on the road three times over the past four weeks. A matchup against the lowly Bills won’t sound as exciting to New England after facing the Steelers. The Bills played well against New England earlier in the year. Don’t be misled by the final score (25-6) as the game was very tight going into the fourth quarter (12-6). Buffalo had trouble scoring with Derek Anderson at the helm, but this time will be different with Josh Allen, who is making steady progress. The Pats lost their leader in terms of receiving yards, Josh Gordon, who quit the team in order to focus on his mental health.


PICK #2: New York Jets +3 vs Green Bay Packers (rated 2 stars)

Aaron Rodgers will play despite a groin injury. Randall Cobb is doubtful (concussion). Underrated RB Aaron Jones is out for the year with a knee injury. The defensive line took a blow with the losses of Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark. The Jets are smelling blood and probably much more motivated than Green Bay who was just officially eliminated from the playoff race. Sam Darnold is improving and played pretty well against a tough Houston Texans defense (24/38 for 253 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 int, 6 rushes for 35 yards). He’ll want to leave a good impression in his last home game of the season. Also keep in mind that the Jets got an additional day of rest after playing last Saturday.


PICK #3: Tampa Bay Bucs +7.5 at Dallas Cowboys (rated 1 star)

Tampa hung tough in Baltimore last week. Dallas melted down in Indianapolis by losing 23-0. They will be hungry to rebound, but I see them playing very nervously in a game they have to win. I expect this game to go down to the wire.

System on Totals

This system continued its downfall by going 0-2 last week. Overall record: 11-17. Starting the season 8-2 seems far away!

There are two plays meeting the criteria for betting this system this week: over 53 Chiefs-Seahawks and over 44 Ravens-Chargers.


I'll suggest a couple of unofficial picks this week:

Tennessee Titans -10 vs Washington Redskins. Fourth game on the road over a five-week period for Washington. After upsetting the Jaguars last week, I feel like the Redskins may not be as hungry this week, especially compared to the Titans who are fighting for their playoff lives.

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 at Seattle Seahawks. You know I like betting good teams following a loss. Kansas City was shocked by a late comeback and a gutsy two-point conversion by the Chargers last week. Granted, the Seahawks were also upset last week in San Francisco, but I believe the Chiefs are a much superior team. K.C. also gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday.


    Merry Christmas guys!

    Professor MJ