NFL Picks Week #14 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


Written Thursday December 6th, 2018 (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: New Orleans Saints -8 at Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 5 stars)

Many bookies have tagged the Saints as 9-point favorites, but thankfully Pinnacle currently offers New Orleans at -8 -104. I love this play. Great teams tend to do well under the following conditions: after a straight up loss (check: they just lost in Dallas), extra days of preparation (check: they played last Thursday night) and after losing to the same divisional opponent earlier in the year (Tampa beat the Saints 48-40 in New Orleans on week #1). However, Tampa is playing a third straight home game so they should be well-rested. Still, I’m going with the Saints big time!

PICK #2: Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs New England Pats (rated 3 stars)

Miami is at home for the third time over the past four weeks, and they will be looking to avenge a bad 38-7 loss against those same Pats earlier this season. The Dolphins usually play Brady’s squad pretty tough in Miami.

PICK #3: Chicago Bears +3 vs Los Angeles Rams (rated 2 stars)

Here is one more case of an elite team who I expect to rebound after getting upset the previous week (in this case, a disappointing loss to the New York Giants). Da Bears should get quarterback Mitch Trubisky back. The weather could also be a factor; as of now, the weather forecast says the temperature should be below zero.

PICK #4: Cleveland Browns +2 vs Carolina Panthers (rated 1 star)

Both teams will try to rebound after a bad performance last week. Carolina will be on the road for the 4th time over the past 5 weeks! The weather could also play a role here.


System on Totals

This system is literally crumbling. After starting the season 8-2, it went 2-12 since then! In other words, the overall record is now 10-14.

There are two games meeting the criteria for betting: over 54.5 Saints-Bucs and over 43 Eagles-Cowboys.



Most of the time I've got 1-2 lean(s), but this week we've got four of them!

San Francisco 49ers +4.5 vs Denver Broncos. The Broncos are playing a third road game over the past four weeks. They lost WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Chris Harris to injuries, two key players for them. Quarterback Nick Mullens did well in Seattle last week despite a lopsided loss (30-of-48 for 414 yards, 2 TDs and 1 int).

Green Bay Packers -5 vs Atlanta Falcons. A coaching change may be what the Packers needed. There were rumours that Aaron Rodgers didn't have a good relationship with Mike McCarthy. The temperature is expected to be -10 degrees Celsius, which would be good news for the Packers.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers. There's little doubt the Chargers will win this game, but I expect them to be a little soft after such an emotional comeback win in Pittsburgh. They are also expecting the Chiefs next week, so this is somewhat of a sandwich game for L.A.

Indianapolis Colts +5 at Houston Texans. Andrew Luck should rebound after getting shutout in Jacksonville last week. Indy will be looking for revenge after losing in overtime against those same Texans earlier this season.


    Good luck, fellows!

    Professor MJ