NFL Picks Week #13 Sunday Games (2019 regular season)

NFL PICKS (WEEK #13)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Written Wednesday November 28th, 2019 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

Official Picks

PICK #1: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)

The Chargers have had plenty of time to reflect on their last two games, both losses to divisional rivals. Their bye week allowed them to game plan appropriately against the Broncos.

L.A. won’t take Denver lightly, considering they were upset at home 20-to-13 in Week #5. They’ll be looking for payback, while the Broncos may not play as hard after a stinker in Buffalo.

At the time of writing, Denver’s starting quarterback has yet to be decided. GM John Elway said Brandon Allen and Drew Lock will split the practice reps this week. A decision is expected to be made by Friday. No matter which one plays, he’ll face a tough task against strong pass rushers like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

Saftey Derwin James has a real shot to be in the lineup for the Chargers. That would be a huge boost to their defense since James was graded as the seventh-best safety in the league by ProFootballFocus.

In my own opinion, the Chargers are a MUCH better team than their 4-7 record indicates. They have a lot more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Broncos.

Please note that the Chargers are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. Sounds good to me!

PICK #2: Arizona Cardinals +3 vs Los Angeles Rams (rated 3 stars)

The critical rest factor favors the Cards big time. They are coming off their bye week, while the Rams lose one day of preparation after getting beaten up last Monday against the Ravens.

Also, I expect the Cards to be more upbeat and motivated for this game. L.A.’s loss to the Ravens pretty much eliminated them from the playoff race, while the Cards have known they are out of it for a while. I expect them to play with passion in front of their home crowd, while the Rams could be demoralized.

The Rams have won the past four meetings with Arizona, outscoring them 130 to 25. Ouch!!! They are 4-0 ATS in Arizona over the past four matchups in the desert. That’s one of the reasons I am not grading this pick more than 3 stars.

PICK #3: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs New York Jets (rated 2 stars)

The Jets are all happy about their recent 3-game winning streak, in which Sam Darnold has thrown 7 TD passes versus just one interception. Facing the Bengals should be easy, right?

I don’t think so. Cincinnati is looking for their first win of the season. They certainly want to give their head coach his first career NFL win. Andy Dalton will be back under center, which gives them a much better chance of winning since the Ryan Finley experiment failed.

The Bengals will be at home for the fourth week out of the past five. In other words, they did not have to travel too much recently so they should be ready to roll.

PICK #4: Jacksonville Jaguars +2 vs Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 2 stars)

Oh boy, the Jaguars have now suffered through three beatings in a row. They were outscored 101 to 36 during this awful stretch. It’s time to put an end to it at home against a weaker opponent.

Nick Foles has done his job since coming back from an injury. He has completed 65 of his 95 passes, which is good for a 68% completion rate. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to put up many points on the board against a lousy defense like Tampa’s.

Head coach Doug Marrone got really upset after Jacksonville’s last loss, and he won’t let his players give up. I believe they will come out firing on all cylinders this Sunday.

Both teams have identical 4-7 records, and yet the Bucs are established as road favorites. This is a non-conference road game for the Bucs; that represents one of the two least sexy games on the schedule for them.

PICK #5: Green Bay Packers -6.5 at New York Giants (rated 1 star)

Do you really want to face Aaron Rodgers after his team goes through an ugly game? The last four times the Packers lost a game, they followed up by beating the spread. Betting elite teams after a straight up loss is a betting angle I like in the NFL.

Did you know the Giants are 0-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record this year? They were outscored 55 to 126 in those games. I expect the trend to continue, as the Packers absolutely need this game to keep up with the Vikings atop the NFC North. I don’t see a scenario where Green Bay takes the Giants lightly.

PICK #6: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (rated 1 star)

The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with AFC South teams. They are 7-1 ATS when facing the Titans at home over their past eight meetings in Indy. Those are pretty stunning numbers!

Indianapolis played last Thursday, so they’ll be well-rested.

Ryan Tannehill has done a nice job since taking over the QB position for Tennessee. However, look at the road/home split: he has thrown 9 TD passes versus 1 interception at home, compared to 1 TD and 3 picks on the road. Facing a tough Colts defense on the road does not bode well for him!

Sure, Marlon Mack is out for the Colts. I don’t want to imply that he is not a good player, but in my opinion most of the job is getting done through the strong play of their offensive line. Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines did very well replacing him last week, as the running game did not skip a beat in his absence.

 

Goooooood luck sports investors!!!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)