NFL PICKS (WEEK #13)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Written Wednesday November 30^th, 2022 at 11 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

 

It’s time for my Week 13 picks in the NFL!

Last week, my official picks generated a 2-1 record. We lost the Pats +3 points in Minnesota, but we won the Jags +4 against Baltimore, and also the Bengals straight up in Tennessee.

Without further ado, let’s move on to my picks against the spread, also called ATS, for Week 13 in the NFL. I particularly like 2 teams to beat the spread this week. Enjoy the read!

 

PICK #1: PITTSBURGH STEELERS STRAIGHT UP AT ATLANTA FALCONS

I like the progression I have seen from Kenny Pickett. After throwing 8 interceptions over his first five games, he has not been picked off in any of his past three contests. And that was despite facing above-average defensive units: the Saints, the Bengals and the Colts. In those games, the Steelers have averaged 25 points scored per game, which is more than just decent.

Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota has done well as a runner, but his performance as a passer has not been good and has not improved much. He also lost one of his top weapons, tight end Kyle Pitts, to an injury. The Falcons have averaged just 18 points scored per game over their past four games, a stretch during which they posted a 1-3 record.

Defensively speaking, the Steelers have allowed fewer points per game than the Falcons despite missing T.J. Watt during a seven-game span. His return is a big boost to Pittsburgh’s pass rush.

Please note that Atlanta has beaten the spread just once over their past six outings.

 

PICK #2: TENNESSEE TITANS +5.5 AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

If you have been following me for the past few years, you have heard me make this statement on a few occasions before: the Titans are a team that tend to do well as underdogs, while you don’t want to bet them as favorites because they don’t necessarily have the firepower to crush weaker opponents. Now established as 5.5-point underdogs in the City of Brotherly Love, I believe they have a good chance of covering.

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS on the road, while Philly is 5-1 ATS at home. Something’s gotta give! After scoring more than 30 points, the Eagles hold a 1-6-1 record ATS.

The Titans defense has been secretly doing extremely well. Indeed, they have not surrendered more than 20 points in any of their past eight games, which is jaw-dropping!

Meanwhile, I feel like Philly’s defense has been going in the opposite direction. They allowed 33 points to the Packers, 16 points to the anemic Colts offense and 32 points to Washington. Granted, the latter game ended with a TD on a fumble return, so the Eagles defense was responsible for 26 points instead of 32, but that was still not very impressive. Following some injuries, they started struggling so much defending the run that they signed Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Both are aging players whose prime years are behind.

Personally, I even bought half a point in order to grab the Titans +6 points, but that is obviously up to you. In the end, even though A.J. Brown will be extra motivated against his former team, I am confident that Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s defense can do enough to keep this game close.

 

 UNOFFICIAL PICKS

It’s now time to handicap the remaining 13 games. At the time I am making this video, I am not betting any of them, but that could change later in the week as I dig deeper. For now, you should view those predictions as unofficial picks that are presented to you just for fun. In order to get all of my official NFL picks, you must be a member on my Patreon page. All right, let’s dive into the other 13 games with some quick-fire picks!

• In the Thursday Night game, the Bills travel to New England as 4.5-point favorites. If forced to bet, I would go with the Patriots +4.5 points. I believe Bill Belichick’s defense will bounce back after a subpar performance last week in which they surrendered 33 points to the Vikings. Don’t underestimate the power of the revenge factor: New England remembers vividly getting humiliated in a 47-17 defeat in the playoffs last year against Buffalo. The Bills will be on the road for the third straight week.
• We don’t know yet, at the time I made this video, who the quarterbacks will be in the Packers versus Bears matchup. It sounds like Aaron Rodgers will be in the lineup, but not Justin Fields. I’ll go with Green Bay -4 points, but with very little confidence. Neither team can stop the run, so it is possible that the game stays close. Still, Darnell Mooney is done for the season, which complicates things even more for Chicago on offense. It is also often a smart idea to FADE a home team coming off two straight road losses, give me Green Bay in this spot.
• Trevor Lawrence has made great strides in Year 2, but he has yet to find some success on the road, as shown by his 1-4 record as the visiting club. The Lions have a well-balanced offense, they benefit from three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving and they will be at home for the third consecutive week. Detroit holds an 8-2 record ATS in their past 10 games at home, while Jacksonville is 1-7-1 ATS on the road. Give me the Lions +1.5.
• I am staying away from the Jets versus Vikings game, but I have a lean towards the Jets as 3-point underdogs. Their defense has done an outstanding job; I never thought they would be that good in 2022. They have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last eight games. The Jets may not win this game, but they will fight hard. Mike White was awesome last week in his first game replacing Zach Wilson under center. But let’s remember he was facing an awful Bears defense, and last year White threw 5 TD passes versus 8 interceptions. That’s what’s preventing me from pulling the trigger on this bet for now. We’ll see if I change my mind later this week, but for now give me the Jets +3.
• Let’s move on to a pivotal NFC East matchup where my lean goes to the New York Football Giants +2.5 points at home against the surprising Commanders. I love what Washington’s defense has done recently; I tip my hat off to their defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio. The Commanders are 5-1 with Taylor Heinicke as their starting quarterback, but the fairy tale will end here on the road against a highly motivated Giants team that needs to win after dropping 3 of their final 4 games. New York gets three additional days of rest since they played last Thursday, and they will be looking to avenge two losses to Washington last year. I am taking the Giants as slight underdogs.
• I am wary of big favorites after getting burned on several occasions this year, but I’ve got to go with the Ravens laying 8.5 points against the Broncos. Here is a jaw-dropping statistic: Denver has scored 17 points or less in 10 of their 11 games. It doesn’t get uglier than this. We also witnessed some yelling on the sidelines last week for Denver; I hate betting teams that seem to have locker room issues. Every time Baltimore has lost a game this year, they bounced back with a win. They will be playing angry after that heart-breaking loss in Jacksonville last week. I believe the Ravens will crush Denver this Sunday.
• Deshaun Watson returns on the field against his former team. The crowd in Houston will be super pumped and will be loud in order to distract Watson. The Texans players will be fired up. For this reason alone, I’ve gotta go with the Texans +7 points against the Browns. I considered making it an official pick, but I have yet to do it given how bad Houston has been this year. I also like the fact that the Texans can run the ball effectively with Dameon Pierce, while Cleveland has been gashed on the ground on several occasions in 2022. In fact, they are ranked dead last defending the run in terms of the EPA stat. It’s also interesting to note that the Browns are 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Houston. In summary, all signs are telling me to bet Houston, but I find it difficult to invest money on such a bad football team. I may or may not pull the trigger later this week.
• The Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 visits to Los Angeles, but they have the revenge factor going their way after losing both meetings to the Rams last year. Moreover, as mentioned earlier, I tend to fade home teams coming off two road losses in a row. The Rams will be without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The offense was already struggling without them, so things are looking bleak for L.A. Seattle has much more incentive to win as well, so my lean goes to Seattle -7.5, but to be honest the line feel high to me so I am clearly not going to put money on this one.
• I am so excited to watch the Dolphins versus 49ers game! Given how great Miami’s offense has been this year, I am surprised the Niners are favored by as much as four points, so give me Miami +4. This is not an official pick in part because I am worried about left tackle Terron Armstead missing the game for the Dolphins. After he left the game against the Texans, Tua got sacked four times. The backup left tackle will now have to deal with Nick Bosa. Ouch! Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert, if he is able to play, will face their former team. San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in their past 9 home games, so that scares me enough to stay away.
• Another awesome matchup is expected in Cincinnati as the Chiefs will face the Bengals. You can see me coming with my famous revenge factor here: Kansas City will be looking for payback after getting ousted by Cincy in the playoffs last year, and also losing a regular season matchup. Ja’Marr Chase is likely to be back on the field for the Bengals, whose offense surprisingly did not miss a beat without him. The Bengals hold an 11-1 ATS record the last 12 times they faced a team with a winning record, while the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their past five visits at Paycor Stadium. But the problem is that my gut feeling likes the Chiefs to win this game, so what should I do? For now, I am staying away from this game from a betting perspective. If forced to bet, I’d go with the Chiefs -2 points.
• I am leaning towards the Chargers -1.5 points against the Raiders, but I have little confidence in this betting play. L.A. needs this win to stay in the playoff race and they have done well on the road with a 5-1 ATS record. The Chargers also present a solid 5-2 ATS record the last seven times they played in Vegas. In injury news, Mike Williams seems unlikely to be back for L.A., while Josh Jacobs, coming off a historic performance in Seattle last week, won’t practice all week with a calf strain. He may suit up on Sunday, but he does not appear to be 100%. I trust Justin Herbert more than Derek Carr, which explains why I would tend to go with L.A. as slight favorites here.
• The Colts offense stinks, but I cannot pick another big favorite, can I? The Cowboys were supposed to crush a very depleted Giants team last week, but the score stayed close for most of the game. Still, the Cowboys hold a 13-3 record ATS when facing bad teams. On the other hand, the Colts are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. Something’s gotta give! I am going for the Colts to keep the score within 11 points, but I would not touch it with a ten-foot pole.
• The Monday nightery features a couple of NFC South teams. I like the Saints +4 in Tampa given they have beaten the spread the last four times they traveled to Tampa. Historically speaking, betting teams coming off a shutout has been a winning proposition. Indeed, since 2017 such teams have presented a record against the spread of 20-9-3. New Orleans will be looking to avenge a Week 2 loss against the Bucs. More data supporting the Saints pick: the last 13 times they scored fewer than 14 points, the Saints bounced back with a 9-4 record ATS. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs was carted off Tampa’s last game. X-rays were negative, so he may or may not be able to suit for this showdown. Among my 13 unofficial picks, this prediction is one of the closest from becoming an official betting play.

 

It has been an honor talking to you, thank you so much for your loyalty! I am looking forward to present my Week 14 picks to you next week my friend!

Cheers!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)