NFL Picks Week #12 (2020 regular season)
NFL PICKS (WEEK #12)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Wednesday November 25th, 2020 at 4 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
We have two picks with the highest 5-star rating this week!
That’s incredible, especially when you consider that we’ve had only three plays rated five stars in the entire 2020 season thus far.
Remember that such confidence picks hold a 2-1 record this year. Since I started this Professor MJ brand three years ago, we are 7-3 under such circumstances.
After giving away ALL of my NFL picks this year, these two gems are available at a $100 fee.
I’m so confident in those bets that I’m willing to make you this great offer:
- If both picks lose, you get your money back;
- If one pick loses and the other wins, you’re going to get my next 5-star pick for free, which should occur sometime later this season;
- If both picks win, everyone’s happy and richer!
I don’t recommend that you wait any longer before getting those 2 awesome picks because the lines are likely to move against you. I already placed my bets because I suspect the lines will only get worse as money pours in.
Simply follow this link. You don’t want to miss out on this unique opportunity to have two 5-star picks during the same week!
PICKS #1 AND #2 (BOTH RATED 5 STARS!!!)
PICK #3 (3 STARS): NEW YORK JETS +7 VS MIAMI DOLPHINS
Despite an 0-10 record, the Jets have been significantly tougher to beat of late. They fought hard and lost by 8 points or less in three of their past four contests: 18-10 vs Buffalo, 30-27 vs New England and 34-28 at the Chargers.
Meanwhile, the Fins stumbled big time last week in Denver. They had been flying high during a five-game winning streak, but fell flat last week. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa even got benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick in order to try to spark a comeback, but to no avail.
Head coach Brian Flores has already named Tua his Week 12 starter. Facing the weak Jets secondary is a good spot to rebound, but unlike what happened in Week 6 I do not believe New York will get shutout against Miami. You guessed it, the in-season revenge factor is coming into play here!
Joe Flacco has done better than expected, especially since he got all three starting WRs on the field: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims.
The last seven times the Jets have been established as home underdogs by oddsmakers, the Jets have beaten the spread five times.
Notice that the Dolphins have owned the Jets in recent meetings, though. Indeed, they are posting a 5-0-1 ATS record in the past six games between these two clubs.
Quick note: Miami has had to travel quite a bit in recent weeks. They played in Arizona, came back home for their bye week, and traveled all the way to Denver last week.
I’m taking the Jets as 7-point underdogs. They fought hard against the Chargers last week, and there is no reason to believe they won’t battle hard again when facing a division rival. I might even put a small bet on over 44.5 points to be scored in that game (quick bonus for you!).
PICK #4 (1 STAR): UNDER 44 POINTS NEW ORLEANS-DENVER
I tip my hat off to Taysom Hill for playing a solid game against the Falcons last week. Unfortunately, Denver’s defense is a notch better than Atlanta’s. That’s particularly true of the pass defense: the Broncos rank 10th in terms of passer rating allowed. That should force the Saints to keep the ball on the ground more often, which runs the clock more quickly (good for unders).
On the other side of the ball, it’s no secret that Denver’s offense is having trouble putting up points on the board. They are 27th in the NFL in point scored per game. As for New Orleans’ defense, they have allowed the eigth-fewest points per game. This unit has been even stronger recently, having allowed an average of 8 points to the Bucs, the 49ers and the Falcons. In other words, an offensive outburst by the Broncos this Sunday is highly unlikely!
Here is an astounding stat: the under is 17-4 the last 21 times the Broncos were at home facing a team with a winning record!
PICK #5 (1 STAR): TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS COTS
Stud defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was placed on the COVID-19 list Wednesday afternoon. He is in danger of missing the game, which would be a HUGE upgrade for Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s dangerous running game.
The Titans were beaten 34-17 by the Colts a couple of weeks ago after leading 17-to-13 at halftime. A blocked punt late in the third quarter was the turning point in this game. I do expect Tennessee to get revenge this week.
Philip Rivers got nicked up against the Packers and finished the game on a gimpy leg. Your body does not recover as quickly when you get near 40 years old and he may be bothered by this injury this Sunday.
Even though the Titans hold a 2-7 ATS record in their last nine trips in Indy, I expect them to keep the game tight or even upset the Colts. The line shouldn’t be as high, in my opinion.
Ryan Tannehill is just more reliable than Rivers, who tends to turn the ball over at bad times. And Derrick Henry is obviously a beast on Tennessee’s side.
For these reasons, I’m going with the Titans +3.5 in Indy.
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
- LEAN #1: Over 49 Browns-Jaguars (Jacksonville’s secondary was already in trouble, and now they have cornerback Sidney Jones listed as questionable. Their pass defense is awful. Cleveland’s run defense is good, which should force Mike Glennon to throw [more passing is good when betting the over]. He’ll be happy that Myles Garrett is going to miss the game!);
- LEAN #2: Packers -8.5 vs Bears (You don’t want to bet against an angry Aaron Rodgers. That’s probably how he feels after a heart-breaking loss in Indy last week. He won’t take a division rival lightly. Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times they lost a game straight up. Talk about rebounding nicely! I’m taking Green Bay despite Chicago being off their bye week. Nick Foles is hurt and bad);
- LEAN #3: 49ers +7 at Rams (San Francisco getting 7 additional days of rest after their bye week, while the Rams lose one after playing the Monday nighter. 49ers likely to get a few key players back, including RB Raheem Mostert, WR Brandon Aiyuk, LT Trent Williams and DE Arik Armstead. Huge boost for them. Can Nick Mullens play better?).
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)